When we talk about change, we’re really exploring, firstly, our perception of change and, second, the stories we tell to make sense of it.
Kurt Vonnegut was a great story-teller and this video is his fantastic summary of the basic plots of stories - which we might reduce to the statement that “things go up and down – and roundabout”
Applying the same principle to this issue of change, I would suggest that a useful typology could be -
Name |
Its theory |
Key reference |
civilisational cycles |
Societies reach a peak and then decline |
The Decline of the West Oswald Spengler 1926 A Study of History (12 vols) Arnold Toynbee (1934-61) |
generational cycles |
Societies have zeitgeists which are generally every 20 years |
“The Fourth Turning – an american prophecy”; William Strauss and Neil Howe (1997) |
critical junctures |
When the various levels combine to create an irresistable force |
Out of the Belly of Hell; Anthony Barnett (2020) |
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