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This is not a blog which opines on current events. It rather uses incidents, books (old and new), links and papers to muse about our social endeavours.
So old posts are as good as new! And lots of useful links!

The Bucegi mountains - the range I see from the front balcony of my mountain house - are almost 120 kms from Bucharest and cannot normally be seen from the capital but some extraordinary weather conditions allowed this pic to be taken from the top of the Intercontinental Hotel in late Feb 2020
Showing posts with label nudge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nudge. Show all posts

Monday, April 11, 2022

Tools of manipulation

I’ve often in the past 25 years had to put myself in the shoes of Ministers and senior civil servants to help them develop “road maps” for their reforms….Indeed I would get them to brainstorm about why they thought people behaved the way they did whether as officials, citizens, politicians or businesspeople – and what that might suggest about ways to achieve the desired change.

After all, the projects I’ve led only exist because someone has decided the present state of affairs is no longer acceptable…..so what aspects of whose behaviour are we talking about? And what is it that is most likely to make target groups change their behaviour?

·         Simple instructions?

·         Threats? Incentives?

·         Explanations and understanding?

·         Moral exhortation?

 One result was this table which focuses on the assumptions we make about motives - and then explores the various mechanisms which are available to those trying to change beliefs and behaviour 

The “behavioural turn” - Tools in the change process

Focus of attention

 

Example of tool

Relevant Tool

1. Understanding

Training

Campaigns

Functional review

Rational persuasion

images

Factual analysis

2. Commitment

Leadership

Communications

Training

Legitimisation; inspiration

 

Pride

3. Maximising Personal Benefit

Pay increase and bonus

Promotion (including political office)

Good publicity

Winning an award

Monetary calculation

ambition

Reputation;

Psychological Status

4. Minimising Personal Cost

Named as poor performer

Demotion

Report cards

Psychological (Shame)

Monetary

Pride

5. Obligation

Law

Action plan

Family ties

Courts

Managerial authority

Social pressure

6. Peer influence

Bribery

Quality circles

Pressure

Support

7. Social influence

 

Opinion surveys

Feedback from public about service quality

 The explosion of interest in behaviour; In the last decade, the question of changing (other) people’s behaviour has become a central one for government, business and NGOs. Professors Thaler and Cass may have “nudged” interest with their 2008 Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness but it was in fact the UK Cabinet Office which arguably set the ball rolling four years earlier with its Personal Responsibility and changing behaviour – the state of knowledge and its implications for public policy (2004) - an example which was followed with Changing Behaviour – a public policy perspective (Australian Government 2007). 

The Nudge book certainly inspired the Cameron government some 7 years later to set up a Nudge Unit in the Cabinet but the British government had been exploring this issue in its The Use of sanctions and rewards in the public sector (NAO 2008) accompanied by a literature review drafted by Deloitte. Even the House of Lords was not to be outdone – with the voluminous evidence of its Behaviour Change in 2011. And the voluntary sector put down an early marker with its Common Case – the case for working with our cultural values (2010)– which showed more familiarity with the marketing approach than did the economistic and rationalistic assumptions which were embedded in the early British attempts. So the World Bank was rather lagging behind when its Annual Development Report got round to dealing with the issue - in its Mind, Society and Behaviour (2015)

Government normally set up for Failure

Government systems are best known for their failures – and we certainly make the most of it when they happen, whether we are journalists, academics or mere citizens and voters. Books with titles such as “Great Planning Disasters” (1980) or “The Blunders of our Governments” (2013) line our shelves; and reports, post-mortems and articles on specific instances of breakdown and failure are legion. For some reason, the same interest isn’t shown in government success. One reviewer of the second book explained why – 

In our anti-politics culture it may be thought that governments never do anything else but blunder. That is not actually true: a serious academic work could be written examining the things governments got right and lessons learnt there from—but who would buy a book entitled ”The Successes of Our Governments”? Change the title to The Blunders of Our Governments and the readers are there 

There was a period – in the 1970s – when some interest was shown in positive government outcomes. I remember, in particular, “Change, Choice and Conflict in Social Policy” by Hall, Land, Parker and Webb (1975) with 6 case studies including the struggle for Clean Air, establishment of the Open University and of Health Centres. The authors suggested 3 important perquisites for such success which I have never forgotten - legitimacy, feasibility and support viz that policies require

·         clear and indisputable claims to authority ,

·         a good chance of achieving a successful outcome

·         indications of extensive support 

But the endeavours of government fell out of favour in the 1980s – at least in anglo-saxon territories – with austerity programmes caused by the bailing out of the banks in 2008 being a final challenge for even successful governments.  

It’s only the perseverance of people like Mark Moore and Paul t’Hart which has brought us positive stories of government efforts – with Alan McConnell’s Understanding Policy Success (2010) being an early and important milestone in what is now a burgeoning field 

Useful Further Reading

Reports and Books

Personal Responsibility and changing behaviour – the state of knowledge and its implications for public policy (UK Cabinet Office 2004

Changing Behaviour – a public policy perspective (Australian Government 2007)

Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness; Thaler and Cass (2008).

The Use of sanctions and rewards in the public sector (NAO 2008) accompanied by a literature review drafted by Deloitte

Common Case – the case for working with our cultural values (2010)

Behaviour Change (House of Lords (2011)

Finding Frames – new ways to engage the UK public in global poverty (2011)

Nudge, nudge, think, think;by Peter John, Smith and Gerry Stoker (2011)

A Practitioner’s Guide to Nudging; Rotman 2013

Mind, Society and Behaviour (World Development Report; World Bank 2015

Sanctions, Rewards and Learning (IDEA 2016)

Governance and the Law (World Development Report; World Bank 2017)

Influencing Behaviours and Practices to tackle poverty and injustice (Oxfam 2018)

Articles

Finding the appropriate policy tools” (RG Young 2008)

Wicked Problems and clumsy solutions – the role of leadership; Keith Grint (2008)

 “Nudge, nudge, think, think”; article by John, Smith and Stoker (2009)

The Rational Paradox of Nudge in a world of bounded rationality; Martin Lodge and Kai Wegrich (2016). A quite excellent critique

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

How the power elite can – and does - manipulate us - Part 4 of the series on the political class

I’ve often in the past 20 years had to put myself in the shoes of Ministers and senior civil servants to help them develop “road maps” to their destinations of reform….An important technique I’ve used in these endeavours has been to get my counterparts to list why they think people behave the way they do – whether as officials, as citizens, politicians or businesspeople  – and what that tells us about the best way to try to get them to change. 
After all, the projects I’ve led only exist because someone has decided the present state of affairs is no longer acceptable…..so what aspects of whose behaviour are we talking about? And what is it that is most likely to make target groups change their behaviour?
-                Simple instructions?
-                Threats? Incentives?
-                Explanations and understanding?
-                Moral exhortation?

I have then developed, over the past couple of decades, this table which focuses on the assumptions we make about motives - and then explores the various mechanisms which are available to those trying to change beliefs and behaviour

The “behavioural turn” - Tools in the change process

Motivating Factor


Example of tool
Particular mechanism
1. Understanding
Training
Campaigns
Functional review
Rational persuasion

Factual analysis
2. Commitment
Leadership
Communications
Training
Legitimisation; inspiration

Pride
3. Maximising Personal Benefit
Pay increase and bonus
Promotion (including political office)
Good publicity
Winning an award
Monetary calculation
ambition

Reputation;
Psychological Status
4. Minimising Personal Cost
Named as poor performer
Demotion
Report cards
Psychological (Shame)
Monetary
Pride
5. Obligation
Law
Action plan
Family ties
Courts
Managerial authority
Social pressure
6. Peer influence
Bribery
Quality circles
Pressure
Support
7. Social influence


Opinion surveys
Feedback from public about service quality

The explosion of interest in behaviour
In the last decade, the question of changing (other) people’s behaviour has become a central one for government, business and NGOs. Professors Thaler and Cass may have “nudged” interest with their 2008 Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness but it was in fact the UK Cabinet Office which arguably set the ball rolling four years earlier with its Personal Responsibility and changing behaviour – the state of knowledge and its implications for public policy (2004) - an example which was followed with Changing Behaviour – a public policy perspective (Australian Government 2007).

The Nudge book certainly inspired the Cameron government some 7 years later to set up a Nudge Unit in the Cabinet but the British government had in 2008 been exploring this issue in its  The Use of sanctions and rewards in the public sector (NAO 2008) the very same year - accompanied by a literature review drafted by Deloitte
Even the House of Lords was not to be outdone – with the voluminous evidence of its Behaviour Change in 2011. And the voluntary sector put down an early marker with its Common Case – the case for working with our cultural values (2010) – which showed more familiarity with the marketing approach than did the economistic and rationalistic assumptions which were embedded in the erly British attempts.
So the World Bank was rather lagging behind when in 2015 its Annual Development Report got round to dealing with the issue - in its Mind, Society and Behaviour

In parallel to this burgeoning interest, the emergence of “behavioural economics” has represented a shamefaced admission by the “discipline” that their models had been based on utterly stupid assumptions of rationality…

However, policy geeks such as yours truly have perhaps been a bit slow to make the connection between the “behavioural turn” and “Big Data” - let alone the scandal of Cambridge Analytics


Useful Further Reading
articles
Reports and Books
Mind, Society and Behaviour (World Development Report; World Bank 2015)
Behaviour Change (House of Lords (2011)
Nudge, nudge, think, think; book by Peter John, Smith and Gerry Stoker (2011
It was accompanied by a literature review drafted by Deloitte