what you get here

This is not a blog which opines on current events. It rather uses incidents, books (old and new), links and papers to muse about our social endeavours.
So old posts are as good as new! And lots of useful links!

The Bucegi mountains - the range I see from the front balcony of my mountain house - are almost 120 kms from Bucharest and cannot normally be seen from the capital but some extraordinary weather conditions allowed this pic to be taken from the top of the Intercontinental Hotel in late Feb 2020
Showing posts with label windows of opportunity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label windows of opportunity. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Theories of Change

 The last post had two purposes

·         to explore seven tools which governments have used in efforts to alter the behaviour of both citizens and organisations (public and commercial).

·         to remind us that some preliminary efforts in the 1970s to identify the factors which accounted for some successful  government initiatives of the 1960s had subsequently floundered in the 1980s - as Thatcherism, privatisation and neo-liberalism downgraded government in favour of what was little more than the downright worship of markets. New Labour may, in the new millennium, have brought back a few government programmes (such as Sure Start) but basically retained its faith in competition, globalisation and the market. 

The global financial meltdown of 2008 took the gloss off all that – and it was not altogether surprising that Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness by Thaler and Cass became a best-seller in the same year. This was a long overdue recognition that governments could also be effective   

Huge amounts of money, of course, are spent - and thousands of lobbyists employed – to persuade us otherwise; to keep us constantly supplied with stories of government waste and ineptitude. And most academics, it must be said, are happy to go along with this. Which is why I finished the post by paying tribute to the perseverance of people like Mark Moore, Paul du Gay and Paul t’Hart who are amongst the very few academics who have chosen to focus their efforts on trying to understand the preconditions for positive government efforts. 

What I want to do in this post is to try to describe the theories of change I’ve found most useful in the 50 years I’ve been lucky enough to have the chance to practice leadership – initially political, then project management and, in retirement, more distant and reflective. 

From “the Pincer Movement” to celebration of opportunism

When I was lucky enough to find myself in a position of strategic leadership in a new and large organisation in the mid 1970s, we used what I called the “pincer approach” to set up reform structures at both a political and community level. The organisational culture was, of course, one of classic bureaucracy – but, from its very start, some of us made sure that it had to contend with the unruly forces of political idealism and community power. The regional body concerned was responsible for such local government functions as education, social work, transport, water and strategic planning for two and half million people; and employed 100,000 staff but very little has been written about it. You’ll find the full story of the strategy here – and a short version here. 

Thirty years later. I was doing a lot of training sessions in the Presidential Academies of Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan and developed there what I called the “opportunistic” or “windows of opportunity” theory of change against what I started to call “impervious regimes” ie so confident of the lack of challenge to their rule that they had become impervious to their citizens. Initially I expressed it like this - 

• “Windows of opportunity present themselves - from outside the organization, in crises, pressure from below

• reformers have to be technically prepared, inspire confidence – and able to seize and direct the opportunity

• Others have to have a reason to follow

• the new ways of behaving have to be formalized in new structures. 

And then developed a more detailed formulation which put more emphasis on the individual, moral responsibility –

“Most of the time our systems seem impervious to change – but always (and suddenly) an opportunity arises. Those who care about the future of their society, prepare for these “windows of opportunity”. And the preparation is about analysis, mobilisation and trust.

·         It is about us caring enough about our organisation and society to speak out about the need for change.

·         It is about taking the trouble to think and read about ways to improve things – and

·         To help create and run networks of such change.

·         And it is about establishing a personal reputation for probity and good judgement 

·         that people will follow your lead when that window of opportunity arises”.

 Contagion and networks?

I am not a fan of Malcolm Gladwell but his popularisations have included the important notion of the Tipping Point (2010)  where he suggested that there were three key factors which determine whether an idea or fashion will “tip” into wide-scale popularity

·         the Law of the Few,

·         the Stickiness Factor, and

·         the Power of Context. 

The “Law of the Few” proposes that a few key types of people must champion an idea, concept, or product before it can reach the tipping point. Gladwell describes these key types as –

·         Connectors,

·         Mavens, and

·         Salesmen. 

(And a maven – in case you didn’t know - is a trusted expert in a particular field, who seeks to pass knowledge on to others. The word maven comes from the Hebrew, via Yiddish, and means one who understands, based on an accumulation of knowledge). 

If individuals representing all three of these groups endorse and advocate a new idea, it is much more likely that it will tip into exponential success.

The other 2 concepts are, frankly, not so well dealt with – and we need to go the wider literature of change management and social marketing to get the whole picture. 

A Final Point

Effective change doesn’t come from the “ya-boo yo-yo” system of adversarial power blocs of the UK and USA – it comes from a combination of sustained dialogue; coalitions of change; and grassroots activism and protest. And, often, it starts with an experiment – rather than a grand programme…Take, for example, what is now being called the Dutch model for neighbourhood care – started by Buurtzorg a few years back which is now inspiring people everywhere. That is a worker cooperative model… which, quite rightly, figures in Frederic Laloux’s  Reinventing Organisations. 

Further Reading; Annotated bibliogaphy for change agents" it may be a bit dated, but it’s still a useful resource for those who want to change the system of which they’re part.

Best explanation of ”theory of change” and annotated bibliography

To be continued

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Changing the World?

I have long known that the trick – for any daunting task - was to break it down into small, manageable parts. .But I hadn’t until now really tried to apply this technique to the various unfinished texts which haunt me on my laptop….But, a year or so ago, I started to use a simple matrix (or table) in my blog – and this seems to be supplying the discipline to identify what exactly is still missing from the Dispatches to the next generation draft……

As I have read through each of the book’s separate sections, I’ve been able to check that each post actually adds value – and is taking the narrative (such as it is) forward.
So, when I came to what was supposed to be the concluding section, it was so obvious that……..there was absolutely no conclusion.
And, indeed I noticed this morning that I had so far not even given the book a clear set of objectives – against which I could satisfy myself about the relevance of the text – let alone its satisfactory conclusion…

Rather hurriedly, therefore I offer these reasons for reading the book -
- It puts the crisis in its proper context – social, historical and moral
- It is clearly written
- Its guided hyperlinks allow you to select the further reading which seems appropriate eg this unique list of books worth reading
- It’s written by someone who understands your uncertainties and confusion
- It will allow you to hold your own in any conversation by referring knowledgably to the title of one (or two) of the almost 200 books referred to in the text….

But the result is that I have to announce a bit of a delay for the next part in this series about Dispatches to the next generation - as I try to work out what the book is about; and draft an appropriate conclusion!

I have another trick when I am facing a difficult challenge – I try to distract myself by reading something completely different. So I started to read Robert Quinn’s Building the Bridge as you walk on it – a guide for leading change – which is one of these curious books which can’t quite be classified. This one falls in the gap between “management literature” and “self-help guides” since it argues that leaders who want to change an organization have to change themselves first.

And I quickly realized that it perhaps supplies the peg on which I could hang my book’s conclusion…It was, you should know, written for an American audience which, for some reason, seems to need high-falutin’ phrases to describe what for me are straightforward processes
Some 20 years ago I developed an “opportunistic” or “windows of opportunity” theory of change for the struggle against what I started to call “impervious regimes” – those which are so confident of the lack of challenge to their rule that they become impervious to their citizens –

Most of the time our systems seem impervious to change – but always (and suddenly) an opportunity arises. Those who care about the future of their society, take the time and trouble to prepare for these “windows of opportunity. And the preparation”, I went on “ is about analysis, mobilisation and trust.
- It is about us caring enough about our organisation and society to be willing to speak out about the need for change.
- It is about taking the trouble to think and read about ways to improve things – and helping create and run networks of change-agents.
- And it is about establishing a personal reputation for probity and good judgement such that people will trust you and follow your lead when that window of opportunity arises”.

I think this is what Robert Quinn ,means when he talks, in his “Building the Bridge” book, about “Entering the fundamental state of leadership”. I spent 2 decades between 1968 and 1990 going from initial community action work to developing and managing for a huge Region what was the country’s first Deprivation strategy – compare for example the typology and references in this 1977 paper on Community development – its political and administrative challenge with the experience described, 20 years later, in Organisational Development and Political Amnesia

Friday, November 2, 2018

When the spark ignites

Sometimes a nation or a people feel such humiliation and anger about the way they are being treated that it takes only one incident to spark off a protest which makes the prevailing regime crumble. It’s said that one picture is worth (variously) a thousand or ten thousand words - although, these days, I would put the equation at more like a billion words and I would focus on dramatic actions - rather than pictures.  
Last month I discussed a neglected classic which explored the question of how people such as Jesus Christ and Mahatmi Gandhi came to inspire the world….Emile Zola’s famous J’Accuse letter may have been more than a hundred years ago but inspired one of the western world’s first social movements – which split France in half.
Saul Alinsky’s writings set in motion several generations of community activists. A black woman refused in December 1955 to obey racist instructions to move to the back of a bus…- thereby starting what became the US Civil Rights movement…….Police brutality has often been the cause of riots eg the Watts Riots of August 1965 in Los Angeles.
But it was probably Jan Palach’s act of setting himself on fire on 16 January 1969 in the centre of Prague (in protest against people’s indifference to the Russian invasion in the summer) which made the greatest impact. His memory stayed alive for the 20 years it took for the country to liberate itself……
 93-year old Stephane Hessel was so offended by the world’s treatment of Palestine (amongst other things) that in 2010 he published Time for Outrage (2010) which quickly climbed to the top of the best sellers….
Later that same year Mohamed Bouazizi - a Tunisian street vendor – also set himself alight in response to the confiscation of his wares by a municipal official and her aides. The subsequent riots led the then-president of Tunisia, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to step down on 14 January 2011, after 23 years in power – and became a catalyst for the wider Arab Spring.

For every such defining moment, however, there are probably a million protests which lead nowhere….. The focus of protests have been variously industrial, racial, environmental, gender, housing, invasion. What, I have to wonder, makes the difference?
In all humility I wonder whether those Romanians who have taken to the street in the past couple of years - or even those such as Dorel Sandor and Alina Mungiu-Pippidi - should perhaps not be using that experience and literature to explore more deeply that basic question…..
Romania may have had blood on the streets in December 1989 but – unlike Poland and Czechoslovakia - its intellectuals were fairly passive until then (with the honourable exception of people like Ana Blandiana and Mircea Dinescu).

Social change, after all, doesn’t come from writing, consultancy or television appearances – but from a willingness to sacrifice…… Please understand that I’m not denigrating the writers when I say that – they are necessary but not sufficient. That’s clearly one of the messages which comes from the books I’ve selected for the important reading list I’ve developed below….

How, sub-consciously, we compartmentalise the world
It’s interesting what happened as I was developing this reading list……I knew that what I wanted to do was list some of books I had found useful in what is a massive literature on the experience and tactics of social struggle….ie a grassroots movement…..But I found references slipping in which I quickly realised didn’t fit……..which dealt what we might call “reform efforts from within the system of power”…..eg the World Bank titles and the Guide to Change management….. This blog has noticed repeated instances of people writing about the same issue but doing so with totally different language, concepts and “frames of reference” and – most importantly – without realising that there were “parallel universes” in which the same conversations were being conducted….

Having noticed this, I remembered the post I had done a year ago - Is it people who change systems - or systems which change people? – in which I had recounted the “pincer movement of change” I had developed in the 1970s. This argued that significant and lasting policy change required both “push and pull” – ie a combination of grassroots pressure with insiders sympathetic to change….Twenty five years later and in a different continent I developed what I called the “opportunistic” or “windows of opportunity” theory of change which I would expound to bewildered central Asian  bureaucrats…. 
“Most of the time our systems seem impervious to change – but always (and suddenly) an opportunity arises. Those who care about the future of their society, prepare for these “windows of opportunity”. And the preparation is about analysis, mobilisation and trust.
- It is about us caring enough about our organisation and society to speak out about the need for change.
about taking the trouble to think and read about ways to improve things 
– and helping create and run networks of such change.
- And it is about establishing a personal reputation for probity and good judgement that people will follow your lead when that window of opportunity arises”.

 Reading list on social change
The selection is a very personal one and ranges from the passionate to the technical – with a  smattering of books that are more descriptive…..Temperamentally I go (at least these days) for the more analytical (and generic) works and the development literature is therefore probably a bit overrepresented (and the feminist underrepresented). Readers should also be aware that I was a strong community activist in my early days….
The first 8 titles can be read in full – as can the last 4. Strange that none of the books is written by a political scientist (with the possible exception of Gene Sharp). Machiavelli would be turning in his grave

Key Books for “social change” activists
Title

Focus
Notes
How Change Happens Duncan Green (2016)

Community groups and officials
Great overview – if from only a development experience perspective


Transition countries
Political culture
Very rare attempt to bring the insights of change management to those trying to build “rule of law” in transition and developing countries


Change agents in government
One of the best – straddling the various worlds of action, academia and officialdom – with the focus on fashioning an appropriate message and constituency for change


Charities
A great example of frame analysis – showing the importance of trying to identify the link between social values and politics

Indignez-vous; Stephane Hessel (2010)

Social justice
Inspiring pamphlet from the Frenchman whose whole life has been an inspiration to us all


Activists for global concerns
One of the most important 100 pages any social activist could read….it’s simply tragic that 8 years later, it would now be seen as revolutionary

Change agents in government
A decade on, it’s still offers one of the clearest frameworks for making government systems work for people


leaders
A must-read analysis which introduced many people to frame analysis - helps us adopt a more holistic approach

trade unionists
A story that needed telling in a media and political world which is now so hostile to working people organising to improve their lot

Environment
This is the field which has probably seen the most action – but the least results!
Change the World; Robert Quinn (2000)

Eclectic
A tragically neglected book

Regime change
The handbook for a lot of soi-disant revolutionaries….its provenance is a bit suspect….
Putting the Last First; Robert Chambers (1983)

Donors
A morally powerful book which challenged (to little avail) the “imperialist” assumptions of most technical assistance programmes

Rules for Radicals; Saul Alinsky (1971)

Community action
THE handbook for generations of activists…
the follow-up apparently to Reveille for Radicals which he published in 1946!

Occupy theory; is the first volume of a 3 vol series written by Michel Albert to mark the Occupy movement, the others being Occupy Vision and Occupy Strategy
When I googled “reading lists on social protest” I got this interesting selection https://c4aa.org/2017/02/reading-list-activism/