How Did Britain Come to This? - a century of systemic failures of governance Gwyn Bevan (2023) The
book looks at how systems of governance developed under four
different rules of the game in Britain.
First,
the UK’s version of the minimal state in the 1920s and 1930s
nurtured the growth of William Beveridge’s five giant evils of
Want, Idleness, Squalor, Disease and Ignorance.
Second
came the planned state as developed under Clement Attlee’s Labour
government, which tackled Beveridge’s five giant evils but ran
into problems in the 1970s, in council housing, running public
services, high government borrowing, inflation and unemployment
(‘stagflation’).
The
Attlee settlement was largely dismantled by Margaret Thatcher’s
Conservative governments from 1979 to 1991. The Thatcher
settlement of neoliberalism began by developing the third
institution of the marketised state.
That
still applies to education, has been abandoned for the NHS after
three failed attempts, and morphed into the fourth institution, the
financialised state, in which ‘only money matters’.
The
dysfunctional consequences of this apotheosis of neoliberalism
include: the demise of successful private corporations; the Global
Financial Crisis of 2008; unaffordable housing; and failures in
government outsourcing and privatisation. Its structured inequalities
in opportunities and incomes mean that a small minority live in a
plutonomy of luxury watches, super yachts and private jets, and
nearly 30 per cent of British children live in poverty, with many of
their families having to choose between eating and heating in the
winter.
Afterword
10.1
Pathologies of neoliberalism Ronald
Reagan began his 1981 presidential address by remarking on how, in
the US, The orderly transfer of authority as called for in the
Constitution routinely takes place, as it has for almost two
centuries, and few of us stop to think how unique we really are. In
the eyes of many in the world, this every-four-year ceremony we
accept as normal is nothing less than a miracle. That address is
remembered, however, for setting out the case for neoliberalism
in one sentence:
‘In
our current crisis, government is not the solution to our problems:
government is the problem.’
In
1989, towards the end of Reagan’s second term, he drafted an
executive order to establish a new government agency. It was to
act on the findings of the secret Project Socrates, led by Michael
Sekora, which had diagnosed the underlying cause of America’s
declining competitiveness. That project found that the falling
competitiveness of
the US was the consequence of its institutions shifting their focus
from technological innovation to ‘increasingly sophisticated
economic shell games to maximize profits’ (emphasis in original).
That
was the outcome of taking seriously Friedman’s 1970 doctrine that:
there
is one and only one social responsibility of business – to use its
resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits
so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say,
engages in open and free competition without deception [or] fraud.
Reagan’s
term of office ended before his executive order could be signed.5
His
successor, President George Bush, abolished Project Socrates. In the
2000s and 2010s, increasingly sophisticated economic shell games
continued to be played in the financialisation of the economies of
the US and UK, with four pathological consequences. The
primary pathology is the corrosive impact of financialisation on what
used to be great companies in the real economy (see Chapter 5). The
mission of maximising shareholder value overturned almost all other
arguments about what was needed to build great corporations – by
making money the core mission and sole rationale of the organisation
and those who work for it. In the 1990s, Boeing was the world’s
most commercially successful aircraft company, thanks to the
success of its 747 aircraft, which was designed and developed by
people who ‘eat breathe and sleep the world of aeronautics’.6
After
its takeover by McDonnell Douglas 20 years ago, Boeing’s core
mission became ‘improving the company’s financial profile’.
In
1976, Fred Hirsch wrote:
In
principle, individual maximisation can be held to its social purpose
– making the best of opportunities for all – so long as it
operates on the basis of properly designed and implemented
rules; yet individual maximisation means manipulating these rules
too.8
In
2018, in Indonesia, Boeing’s 737 Max 8 airline, ‘which was
practically new, crashed minutes after takeoff, killing all 189
people on board’.
In
2019, in Ethiopia, another Boeing 737 Max 8 crashed, again killing
all 346 people on board.
On
22 September 2022, the New York Times reported that:
Boeing
reached a $200 million settlement with U.S. securities regulators
on Thursday to resolve an investigation into claims that the aircraft
manufacturer and a former chief executive had deceived investors
about problems with its 737 Max plane … The aircraft manufacturer
last year reached a $2.5 billion settlement with federal prosecutors
as part of a deferred prosecution agreement … Last year, a group of
Boeing directors agreed to a $237.5 million settlement with
shareholders who accused them of failing to adequately oversee the
company, allowing the lapses that led to the crashes.
The
secondary pathology is the consequences of major shocks to the body
politic in the US and the UK as a consequence of the 2008 Global
Financial Crisis. Everyone could see that the rules of the game in
the institutions of financialisation were privatising gains and
socialising losses and that undermined trust in our
institutions. Fiona Hill was brought up as the daughter of an
unemployed miner and midwife in Bishop Auckland and went ‘From coal
house to White House’, becoming an adviser on foreign affairs to US
Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump. She
saw the same pathologies led to those in the deindustrialised areas,
which had been left behind, to vote for new political settlements: in
2016, for Brexit in the UK, with its promise to ‘take back
control’, and Donald Trump in the US, as the 45th president, with
his promise to Make America Great Again (MAGA).12
Brexit
now makes the British economy look like a team of athletes who used
to struggle to compete in the Olympics and have decided to go on a
fast-food diet: they can still run but not compete effectively.
Trump’s
refusal to accept his defeat in the presidential election of 2020
resulted in that infamous day of 6 January 2021, when five people
died in the Capitol in Washington. That ceased to be Reagan’s
miracle of ‘orderly transfer of authority’.
The
third pathology is a set of direct malign consequences from the
growth of the UK financial sector and its lobbying power. John
Muellbauer and David Soskice highlight the following:
lax
regulation and generous tax treatment of capital gains and hedge
funds;
a
seamy underbelly of the UK financial and property service sector,
abetted by the UK’s overseas territories, making international tax
evasion easier;
credit-fuelled
property booms, and high property prices; and
diminished
productivity growth.
The
fourth pathology is, perhaps, the most troubling of all: the low
productivity of the UK as compared with other countries in
Europe, and the UK’s rate of increase in productivity over the
decade to 2018, which was the lowest in the last 250 years.
The
UK’s stagnating economy is why there have been historically
high levels of taxation and failing services (for example, nearly
26,000 waiting more than one year for treatment in the NHS).
Those
struggling to deliver front-line services are trapped in a vicious
circle of being underpaid and overworked, which creates problems of
retention and recruitment, and so staff leave. The government’s
plans to tackle staff shortages in emergency care were deemed to have
been misdirected for ‘a demoralised and burnt-out workforce seeing
high rates of people leaving, and a social care system devastated by
years of squeezed budgets and bad pay’.
10.2
Second thoughts on markets and quasi-markets
The
quintessential neoliberal philosopher Robert Nozick, in 1974, argued
that the market ought to be allowed free rein. He carefully chose
what then seemed to be an innocuous example: the willingness of
baseball fans to pay to watch one of the sport’s greatest players,
Wilt Chamberlain.
In
his book “What Money Can’t Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets”,
Michael Sandel offers troubling examples of what the rich can now
buy: access to an elite university, shooting endangered black rhinos,
and the right to immigrate into the US.
He
still has the ticket from when he was 12 years old and went, with his
father, to watch their baseball team, the Minnesota Twins, play in
the World Series. They lost and he was devastated. There was then
little difference in the prices of admission for the two types of
seats, box seats and stand seats. The market for sport is now
financialised. In 2012, a box seat to see the New York Yankees
costs $260.21
I
remember, when I was 18 and at school, paying out of my pocket money
to watch George Best play for Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Those who now pay up to £239 to watch a game at Manchester United
are buying not only hospitality but also exclusivity.
Sandel’s
argument is that these changes have undermined how watching sport
used to develop a strong sense of belonging to the same local
community.
Timothy
Besley responds to Sandel’s book by showing that economists have
recognised the problems he illustrates when only money matters.
I
noted above that Julian Le Grand’s quasi-market theory is that this
encourages those who are ‘knights’, who are altruistic, and
discourages ‘knaves’, who are driven by self-interest, because
the former are rewarded and the latter penalised by changes in
market shares and funding. Timothy Besley and Maitreesh Ghatak
question the efficacy of seeking to generate incentives from
financial gains and losses for those who have chosen to work in
not-for-profit organisations.
They
argue that high performance of public services follows from matching
their missions to the motivation of those who deliver them. For
example, teachers who derive intense satisfaction from educating the
young are committed to their calling as professionals and do not seek
large financial rewards.
This
approach stands in radical contrast to the mission of maximising
shareholder value and financialisation by re-emphasising the core
mission of the organisation and those who work for it. Chapter 8
showed that healthcare is an exemplar for where markets fail and
where effective alternatives have been implemented. We
would expect a quasi-market for schools to work best in cities. But
it failed in London, which is why the Blair government launched the
London Challenge. This combined ‘experimentation on the ground,
[and] rapid feedback and learning by advisers and officials,
with strong project management across different strands of the
policy’. It ran from 2003 to 2011 and improved the performance of
secondary schools in inner London local authorities from being ‘the
worst performing to the best performing nationally’.
It
has had an abiding impact. In 2019, Farquharson, McNally and Tahir
showed that more than three-quarters of local authorities where at
least 70 per cent of primary school leavers met the expected level in
reading, writing and maths were in London.
They
also found that the impacts of poverty, as indicated by eligibility
for free school meals (see Chapter 7) on attainment at GCSE in London
schools was around half of that in the rest of the country. They
emphasise that this was ‘entirely driven by better performance
among disadvantaged pupils, meaning that lower educational inequality
in the capital is a result of “levelling up” rather than
levelling down’.
Although
Julian Le Grand and Samuel Bowles start from David Hume’s maxim,
with which this chapter began, they argue for, and against, the use
of market mechanisms as a system of governance of public services. Le
Grand was aware of the risk that introducing quasi-markets could
crowd out altruism by turning ‘knights’ into ‘knaves’.
Samuel
Bowles argues in The Moral Economy that this is what quasi-markets
are designed to do, because individuals are motivated either by
altruism or by market mechanisms, but not both.
And,
as these processes cannot be separated (as is required for
quasi-markets to work), market mechanisms undermine, rather than
reinforce, ‘knightly’ behaviour. Market mechanisms also typically
fail to provide sanctions for ‘knaves’ because it is so
problematic for a failing provider (school, university or hospital)
to exit the market. What happens instead to failing providers in a
quasi-market is that they continue to provide a poor service with
inadequate funding. That is what happened to the comprehensive school
of Chelmsley Wood council estate, and was found by the Institute for
Fiscal Studies for schools in England (see Chapter 4). Hume
observes that ‘it appears somewhat strange’ that his political
maxim ‘that every man must be supposed a knave … should be true
in politics which is false in fact’.
Indeed,
it is reasonable to assume that most who choose to deliver a public
service start out aiming to be ‘knights’. So, we require a more
discriminating system of governance than treating all as if they were
‘knaves’. Ian Ayres and John Braithwaite lay out the principles
of regulatory discrimination of a strategy of tit-for-tat based
on the conduct of those providing services: being punitive for
‘knavish’ and persuasive for ‘knightly’ conduct.
Adam
Oliver proposes a system of governance by reciprocal altruism, which
offers an alternative to a market mechanism. Reciprocal altruism has
two different systems of negative reciprocity, which sanctions
unacceptably poor performance by ‘knaves’, and positive
reciprocity, which encourages excellence from ‘knights’.
Diagnoses
of, and remedies to, the pathologies of neoliberalism have been
developed by those known as ‘behavioural economists’. That raises
an obvious question: isn’t all economics about human behaviour? To
which the answer is: not when it is based on mathematical models
abstracted from institutions and human behaviour.
David
Hume’s close friend Adam Smith has a strong claim to be the first
‘behavioural economist’.
His
Theory of Moral Sentiments emphasised the importance of sympathy,
that we feel loss more acutely than a gain of similar magnitude,
and introduced the concepts of positive and negative reciprocity.
Scholars
of Smith’s work have sought to reclaim the breadth of his vision of
society from its misrepresentation by neoliberal economists
(including Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich von Hayek and Milton
Friedman).Glory Liu reviews the scholarly literature on what is known
as ‘Das Adam Smith Problem’, namely the cognitive dissonance
between the Theory of Moral Sentiments and the Chicago School’s
version of Smith as ‘an economist who believes in the social
productiveness of self-interest alone, and whose metaphor of
“the invisible hand” illustrates how free markets – not
government – protect and promote individual freedom’.
Jesse
Norman’s book on Smith lucidly sets out how ‘In Friedmanite
fashion [the discipline of economics] has long been overly
preoccupied with its own models rather than the real-world phenomena
they are supposed to represent’.
In
1976, Milton Friedman won the Nobel Prize in Economics and celebrated
the 200th anniversary of the publication of The Wealth of Nations in
his paper ‘Adam Smith’s Relevance for today’.
Jesse
Norman describes that paper as a ‘master class in adjusting the
facts to fit one’s own theory’: Friedman was being economical
with the truth in his account of Smith’s position on Britain being
overgoverned, the efficacy of free markets, and the importance of the
‘invisible hand’.
Scholars
of Smith’s work have sought to reclaim the breadth of his vision of
society from its misrepresentation by neoliberal economists
(including Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich von Hayek and Milton
Friedman). Jacob Soll argues that they failed to understand that
Smith’s thought was grounded in Cicero’s economic vision in which
‘good morals … drove a healthy market’.
Glory
Liu points out that Barack Obama cited Smith:
They
who feed, clothe and lodge the whole body of the people should have
such a share of the produce of their own labour to be themselves
tolerably well fed, clothed and lodged.
Obama
translated that to mean ‘if you work hard [you] should make a
decent living [and] be able to support a family’.
The
failings of neoliberalism to deliver a promised land after 40 years
of trying can be understood as a consequence of a fundamental
misreading of Adam Smith. In economic behaviour, what matters is not
only, or even primarily, money.
10.3
Governing by reciprocal altruism
In
the UK, teachers, doctors and nurses, who provide vital public
services, were three of the top four most trusted professions in 2020
(the other was engineers).
The
reputational damage from ‘naming and shaming’ members of
these professions for unacceptably poor performance brings a loss of
esteem that undermines their core identity – like being unfrocked
in public. The regime of ‘star ratings’ is an exemplar of how
that sanction of negative reciprocity tackled unacceptably poor
performance in the English NHS. If ‘naming and shaming’ does not
work, then negative reciprocity requires dismissal – as applied in
the ‘star rating’ regime (see Chapter 8) Negative reciprocity is,
however, limited in scope: it can be effective only when performance
is unacceptably poor, for example if waiting time at a hospital
for a hip operation were three years (and the target were 18 months)
but not if it were 19 weeks (and the target were 18 weeks). Positive
reciprocity encourages high performance through collegial
benchmarking with recognition for high achievement by peers and the
public. Timothy Besley and Maitreesh Ghatak describe that kind of
competition as sustaining and supporting the mission of excellence to
deliver outcomes that benefit citizens.
Positive
reciprocity is encouraged through recognition of excellence by
awards in a process of ‘naming and faming’, for example from
winning a Nobel Prize.
In
the US, the Sammies are annual awards of medals that highlight
excellence in the federal workforce.
Our
honours system does not do the same for our public servants. Positive
reciprocity is most effective in concert with negative reciprocity.
For example, it would have been futile to try to develop collegial
competition for developing care of high quality at Mid Staffordshire
hospital between 2006 and 2010 (see Chapter 1).
Oliver
argues against trying to use the same system for both positive and
negative reciprocity.
But
that is what we do for public services in England with, for example,
NHS star ratings, school league tables, and inspections by the Care
Quality Commission and OFSTED. Christopher Hood argues that it is
easier to implement punitive policies, such as negative reciprocity,
in big countries because of the substantial relational distance
between the government and those who deliver public services.
This
may explain why the devolved government in Wales stopped publication
of school league tables, and did not follow England in implementing a
regime similar to ‘star ratings’ in its NHS, with consequent
worse outcomes in Wales than in England.
Oliver
argues that positive reciprocity of learning through collegial
competition against benchmarks needs to operate at a regional scale.
Regions need to be large enough that there are enough producers of
public services to learn from each other but small enough that the
key players in each organisation can meet in the same room at the
same time to learn from those delivering exceptional
performance, as in the London Challenge. As so often in the case in
the UK, that was a localised one-off exercise.
We
need to institutionalise that capacity to learn as integral to our
running of devolved public services, as in the network of the
Interregional Performance Evaluation System across and within Italian
regions (see Chapter 8). Veneto, which is part of that network,
showed more resilience when Covid-19 hit Italy than did Lombardy,
which is the only region in Italy that persisted with trying to make
hospital competition work. At the end of March 2020, Pisano et
al reported that the mortality rates per 100,000 were six in Veneto
and 50 in Lombardy.
George
Akerlof and Rachel Kranton developed the economics of identity, which
explains the power of negative and positive reciprocity for public
services as compared with financial incentives.
Negative
reciprocity defines what is, and is not, acceptable behaviour. They
describe the initial rite of passage for new cadets at the
United States Military Academy at West Point (‘R day’). They are
stripped to their underwear, have a severe haircut, are put into
uniform and required to salute and address an older cadet ‘until
they get it exactly right, while being reprimanded for even the
smallest mistake’. The
mission of West Point is:
to
educate, train, and inspire the Corps of Cadets so that each
graduate is a commissioned leader of character committed to the
values of Duty, Honor, Country and prepared for a career of
professional excellence and service to the Nation as an officer in
the United States Army.
West
Point has developed processes to develop a cadre for whom
reciprocity (not self-interest) is fundamental. Akerlof and
Kranton highlight the profound sense of identity imbued within that
cadre. For example, a soldier would rather risk his life than let
down his peers and, after leaving military service, will experience
acute disappointment on being offered jobs by potential future
employers who assume that only money matters.
If
we look to developing governance based on reciprocal altruism, the
UK’s current constitutional arrangements look like one hand
clapping. England has the scale for negative reciprocity but lacks a
regional organisation for positive reciprocity. The devolved
countries are at the scale for positive reciprocity but lack the
relational distance for negative reciprocity. Devolution in England
remains problematic because, as I found, officials in Whitehall
devolve power as willingly as a leech gives up sucking blood (see
Chapter 1). A review of devolution in Manchester pointed out that
devolution in England has resulted in ‘very little local autonomy,
major areas not devolved and hardly any tax raising powers’.
But
the evidence from more than 20 years of fuller devolution to
national governments within the UK has shown them to be more
vulnerable to producer capture, which is why their schools and
hospitals have tended to perform worse than in England.
Devolution
to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is necessarily asymmetric
because the scale of England dwarfs that of the other countries. That
means that it makes no sense to have a Parliament for England.
That
does not, however, justify our two deficiencies compared with proper
federal arrangements.
First,
our public services are funded by taxes on a UK-wide basis without a
constitutional basis for agreeing what should be the UK-wide elements
of policy: for example, charging for medicines and other
prescriptions (which continues in England only) or not charging
tuition fees for undergraduate education (which continues in Scotland
only). Second, one promise of federal arrangements is that they offer
a laboratory to experiment with different kinds of governance so
enable learning about which works. We have experiments across the UK
but lack the capability to learn from them, partly because we lack a
federal institution to negotiate arrangements for reporting
performance across our countries. Over time it has become
increasingly difficult to compare public services’ performance
across the four countries of the UK – a blind spot that reduces the
scope for citizens to put pressure on their governments to
remedy their shortcomings.
Requiring
each government to collect basic data, following common definitions,
so that performance can be compared and lessons learnt, does not
constrain the different parts of the UK from having different
priorities or pursuing different policies. This was recognised in the
Concordat on Statistics of October 2021 in which the UK government
and devolved administrations agreed on the objective of producing
‘coherent/comparable statistics at the UK and disaggregated
levels’.
But,
in August 2023, it was reported that the UK statistics authority had
problems in being supplied with comparable NHS data.
The
development of performance monitoring at the national and regional
levels in Italy offers a good model for a new constitutional
settlement for the UK in which there is full devolution to regions
within England combined with effective scrutiny of their use of
public money and by the devolved countries of the UK. An example
is the performance agreements linked to funding for government
departments as implemented by the Treasury under Gordon Brown in the
Blair government in the early 2000s.
In
a new constitutional settlement, the Treasury would report to the
public on how effectively their taxes are being used by the devolved
countries and English regions. And these bodies would develop their
own systems of comparing performance of local providers of public
services by developing collegial competition between them. These
services would include healthcare, and all education except for an
elite set of internationally competitive research-intensive
universities. Regions would also look to develop means of better use
of our resources for healthcare along the pathways of care and
education over a lifetime.
10.4
A new political settlement
In
2022, Peter Hennessy, writing in A Duty of Care, hoped Covid-19 would
be followed by a new political settlement, as after the 1942
Beveridge Report (see Chapter 3).
William
Beveridge set the agenda for the Attlee government with his five
giant evils: Want, Idleness, Disease, Ignorance and Squalor (see
Chapter 3). This is a game you can play. My take on our current five
giant evils is as follows:
Want
(or poverty and lack of means) was caused by the economics of less
eligibility for the unemployed. Beveridge showed that the UK could
have afforded to abolish it in the 1930, and how that could be done
in the 1940s, in a system of social security. In modern Britain,
Want has re-emerged as a giant everywhere. The high cost of housing
in a financialised market is a primary cause of poverty. And,
contrary to Adam Smith’s view of a well-ordered society, all too
often having a job offers no escape. In-work poverty means too many
have to trade off heating and eating, or childcare versus
employment.
Idleness
was a consequence of market failure that sustained armies of
unemployed people over a decade. Now regulatory failures of complex
markets generate Insecurity in our future supplies of privatised
water and energy, from toxic social media (the murders of Jo Cox and
David Ames give menace to the anonymous death threats our MPs
receive every week), in our financial institutions, and from the
existential threat of climate change and developments of artificial
intelligence (AI).
Disease
was prevalent from lack of access to healthcare. Now we have
Ill-health from overall policy systems so designed that many people
‘freely’ choose ways of living that have resulted in ‘epidemics’
of obesity and diabetes.
Ignorance
was caused by lack of access to secondary education. Now we have
Miseducation, with degrees awarded by our bloated university
sector, from which only 25 per cent of graduates earn enough to pay
back their student loans in full. Uniquely across the OECD, our
younger generations of people in the UK are no more numerate or
literate than those born four decades earlier.
Squalor
was caused by the mismatch between where people lived and
opportunities for employment, leading to very poor living
environments. While some problems here have been ameliorated by
post-war economic growth, rundown areas remain on almost the same
scale, leaving people living in them vulnerable to Despair, where
those on benefits or with gloomy jobs see no escape for themselves
(or their children) from a life of drudgery, low pay and low status.
In the US, despair is a leading cause of deaths from drugs and
suicide.
Beveridge’s
400-page report was focused on tackling Want. (His recommendation
for the governing principles of what became our NHS was because this
would tackle Want – and, of course, Disease.) He described the five
giant evils in two short paragraphs. It is beyond the scope of this
book, and my knowledge, to suggest how we tackle what I have
suggested are our five giant evils. Indeed, the purpose of this book
is to inform debate over their causes, so others more expert than I
can debate how we ought to tackle them. I conclude with the following
observations on our systems of governance.
We
are still living in the Thatcher settlement based on neoliberalism
as if there were no alternative. Indeed, Colin Crouch, in 2011,
described what failed to follow the Global Financial Crisis as “The
Strange Non-death of Neo-liberalism”.
For
neoliberalism to die, we need a new political settlement: the
enabling state, which recognises that now market failures are
the problem of government. As Chapter 5 argued, it would be a
mistake to go back to the Attlee settlement based on the state
‘rowing’. This new settlement is where the state steers
different systems of governance: regulating markets where they can
work effectively (not just for shareholders and senior executives)
and developing alternatives where they do not.
•
Effective
devolution is vital to developing an enabling state in the UK, with
consequent radical changes in the skills, staffing and attitudes of
those working in Whitehall and Westminster.