Limits to Growth – time to get serious

It is 50 years since the Club of Rome published the famous “Limits to Growth” which, contrary to the propaganda spewed out by the billionaire and fossil-fuel funded think-tanks, made no predictions - but offered 12 scenarios about the world

Dona Meadows was one of the report’s principal authors (with her husband Dennis) and did a 30 year update which is summarised here. The book deals with an issue which affects us all – but in different ways depending on where we live. But even rich people – in Australia, France and the US – are now experiencing the floods and fire which indicate that we have reached too far. But the world has been strangely quiet about the book’s 50^th anniversary   

Dona Meadows died sadly in 2001 but was a marvellous woman who wrote the most accessible book about systems - “Thinking in Systems – a primer” (2008) and this powerful little essay helpful to anyone seriously interested in change - Leverage Points.   

Those of you who prefer videos will be moved by this presentation of hers from 1993 when she threw away her notes to address an issue which was lurking in the lecture hall full of technocrats like the veritable elephant – namely the need for vision and the difficulties scientific people have in speaking about dreams and hopes rather than problems. It’s a superb performance – quiet but authoritative – and well worth watching. And she has a short note which captures the essence of the talk here.

In 2019 her husband Dennis did an equally powerful presentation which started with a memorable invitation to the audience to cross their arms and learn a lesson about the difficulties of changing our habits. 

And that’s the central question – why we seem unable to accept the evidence that’s been so obvious for at least the last decade that our present habits are simply not sustainable? It took me some time to pose this question – and to be open to the need to better understand the way our minds work

And I was impressed with this recent story of someone who gave up a well-paying job in the financial sector in his early 50s to join Extinction Rebellion – to realise that he simply didn’t understand the financial system That duly led me to this paper “A map for navigating climate tragedy” by academic activist Jem Bendell (2018) 

Have professionals in the sustainability field discussed the possibility that it is too late to avert an environmental catastrophe and the implications for their work? A quick literature review revealed that my fellow professionals have not been publishing work that explores, or starts from, that perspective. Why not? I looked at psychological analyses, held conversations with colleagues, reviewed debates amongst environmentalists in social media and self-reflection on my own reticence - concluding that there is a need to promote discussion about the implications of a societal collapse triggered by an environmental catastrophe.

I then asked another question – How do people talk about collapse on social media. I identified a variety of conceptualisations and from that asked myself what could provide a map for people to navigate this extremely difficult issue. For that, I drew on a range of reading and experiences over my 25 years in the sustainability field to outline an agenda for what I have termed “deep adaptation” to climate change.

I am new to the topic of societal collapse and wish to define it as an uneven ending of our normal modes of sustenance, shelter, security, pleasure, identity and meaning.

The article summarises what I consider to be the most important climate science of the last few years and how it is leading more people to conclude that we face disruptive changes in the near-term. It then explains how that perspective is marginalised within the professional environmental sector – and so invite you to consider the value of leaving mainstream views behind. And outlines the ways that people in relevant social networks are framing our situation as one of facing collapse, catastrophe or extinction and how these views trigger different emotions and ideas. I outline a “Deep Adaptation Agenda” to help guide discussions on what we might do once we recognise climate change is an unfolding tragedy. Finally, I make some suggestions for how this agenda could influence our future research and teaching in the sustainability field…..

Significantly, the same month that saw the story of the financial expert brought forward another confession from scientists who had suddenly realised that the techno-optimists were peddling dangerous delusions

Background Reading

Was given in the annotated bibliographies of two previous posts

https://nomadron.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-patriotism-answer.html

https://nomadron.blogspot.com/2019/07/what-is-wrong-with-us.html

What is wrong with us?

This blog has recorded 1360 posts in the past decade – mostly on serious social matters. One issue has, however, been curiously absent – namely climate change.  There was, admittedly, a brief reference earlier in the year to The Club of Rome’s report - Come On! Capitalism, short-termism, population and the destruction of the planet; (2018) (superbly summarized in this article in the fascinating Cadmus journal).

But it is all of 5 years since I last did an extended post on the issue – when I summarized a great book with the title “Why we Disagree on Climate Change”

A short, vivid article in the current issue of the New York Review of Books had me pulling some books off the shelves and wondering about this gap in the blog’s musings. It starts by recognizing a twofold problem which confronts those who write about climate change –

First, how to overcome readers’ resistance to ever-worsening truths, especially when climate-change denial has turned into a political credo and a highly profitable industry. ….

Second, in view of the breathless pace of new discoveries, publishing can barely keep up. Refined models continually revise earlier predictions of how quickly ice will melt, how fast and high CO2 levels and seas will rise, how much methane will be belched from thawing permafrost, how fiercely storms will blow and fires will burn, how long imperilled species can hang on, and how soon fresh water will run out (even as they try to forecast flooding from excessive rainfall). There’s a real chance that an environmental book will be obsolete by its publication date.

The article looks at two recently-published books on the ecological crisis – the first The Uninhabitable Earth based on an article which had attracted the usual criticism for scaremongering when it appeared in 2017

Its critics have largely been subdued by infernos that have laid waste to huge swaths of California; successive, monstrous hurricanes—Harvey, Irma, and Maria—that devastated Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico in 2017; serial cyclone bombs exploding in America’s heartland; so-called thousand-year floods that recur every two years; polar ice shelves fracturing; and refugees pouring from desiccated East and North Africa and the Middle East, where temperatures have approached 130 degrees Fahrenheit, and from Central America, where alternating periods of drought and floods have now largely replaced normal rainfall.

“The Uninhabitable Earth” has become a best seller – and taps into the underlying emotion of the day: fear. This book is meant to scare the hell out of us, because the alarm sounded by NASA’s Jim Hansen in his electrifying 1988 congressional testimony on how we’ve trashed the atmosphere still hasn’t sufficiently registered. “More than half of the carbon exhaled into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels has been emitted in just the past three decades,” writes Wallace-Wells, “since Al Gore published his first book on climate.”

How many warnings do we need? It’s 30 years since the American Congress received that warning from James Hansen; and almost 50 years since the Club of Rome’s “The Limits to Growth” explosive report in 1972. I had thought that was the first such warning but a book I’ve just been reading (“The Wizard and the Prophet”) tells me that 1948 saw the publication of no less than 2 prescient books – “Our Plundered Planet” by F Osborn and “Road to Survival” by W Vogt (who figures as the “prophet” in the book (see list below)

Naomi Klein is a well-known Canadian journalist who, like most of us, had tended to hide her head in the sand on this issue – with justifications that equally explain my own blog silence on the issue - that
- it was too complex; 
- others were dealing with it; 
- technical change would sort things out; or 
- a few personal changes in life-style could at least salve the conscience….

In 2009 a chance encounter changed that – and she started to write This Changes Everything which became a bestseller in 2014.  A couple of reviews give excellent and detailed summaries which will help you select the most appropriate part of this rather sprawling book (the link in the title gives the entire text). I had read the book a few years ago but have now gone back to it to read more carefully – along with the second book on the reading list I’ve developed below. And here's an update 

https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/book-of-the-day/2022/05/climate-change-emergency-who-is-to-blame 

Hopefully this goes some way to make up for my failure to give this life-and-death issue the priority it warrants…..

Climate Change Resource
TheUninhabitable Earth – life after warming; David Wallace-Wells (2019) This highly readable book from a journalist who has compressed his extensive reading into a series of short, very punchy chapters can be accessed by clicking the title. 

https://www.catherineingram.com/facingextinction/ - written by someone who believes we really are nearing the end... 

Change – why we need a radical turnaround; Graham Maxton (2019). Written to try to persuade the ordinary citizen of the need to take this issue more seriously – and therefore without the copious referencing of an academic book. Would be even better with a few carefully-chosen references..Full access the usual way  

Come On! Capitalism, short-termism, population and the destruction of the planet; Club of Rome (2018). This is the definitive text (in full here) for anyone who wants an up-to-date overview of the point we’ve reached. These are the people who first alerted us in 1972 and were pilloried mercilessly by the corporate elites for their audacity.

The report probably falls into the category of “not give up hope completely” and the technical options described in detail in the last part of the book do give the impression that things might still be fixed….But the politics suggests otherwise  

Drawdown – the most comprehensive plan ever proposed to reverse global warning; ed Paul Hawken (2017). The title may be a bit over the top but the scale of research undertaken for  a superbly-designed book was impressive 

This Changes Everything – capitalism v the climate;  Naomi Klein (2014). 

This book by the Canadian journalist is written for those who are already convinced about the need for urgent action. Those new to the issue should first read books such as “The Uninhabitable Earth” and Lynas to get a sense of how bad things are. 
A couple of reviews give excellent and detailed summaries which will help you select the most appropriate part of Klein's book (the link in the title gives the entire text).  The first is here. The second review gives a useful summary of the scientific issues at stake and then of each chapter. Another review gives a more selective summary

Part 1,“Bad Timing,” explores the political context in which the battle against climate change has been fought, and the political dimensions and implications of climate change policy. The “bad timing” she is referring to is the way that the need for collective action on climate change came into public awareness at almost exactly the same time as neoliberalism become the dominant political force on the planet.

Part 2, “Magical Thinking,” explores the various attempts to address climate change that Klein argues haven’t worked: large green groups partnering with big business to find market-based solutions; billionaires and philanthropists attempting to solve the problem on their own terms; and geo-engineering and imagined future technology. This is what Klein refers to as “magical thinking.”

Part 3, “Starting Anyway,” contains six chapters that explore forms of grass-roots resistance to the expansion of the fossil-fuel industry, and community-led solutions to climate change.  

The Wizard and the prophet – science and the future of our planet; Charles Mann (2014)

A detailed study by a journalist of two figures at opposite ends of the climate debate.

“The Carbon Crunch; how we’re getting climate change wrong – and how to fix it”; Dieter Helm (2012). This by an economist – and the subtitle is the giveaway to his optimism

Why we Disagree on Climate Change – understanding controversy, inaction and opportunity; Mike Hulme (2009). An environmental scientist Professor takes a rare and deep look into our cultural disagreements – using anthropological insights

 “Storms of my Grandchildren – the truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity”; James Hansen (2009). A powerful story of how one scientist has tried to warn us

Blessed Unrest - how the largest social movement in history is restoring grace, justice and beauty to the world; Paul Hawken (2007); Beautifully-written history of the environmental movement, with particular emphasis on the contemporary aspects. Very detailed annex.

“Six Degrees – our future on a hotter planet”; Mark Lynas (2007) A detailed examination by an environmental journalist of what happens when the planet heats up – one degree at a time. Bear in mind that our present increase of 1.5 degrees is already causing havoc – and that reputable organisations such as the World Bank predict a 4 degree increase

“The revenge of Gaia – why the earth is fighting back – and how we can still save humanity”; James Lovelock (2006). One of our most famous scientists (just turned 100) who coined the Gaia concept

“The Carbon War – global warming and the end of the oil era”; Jeremy Leggett (1999) from an entrepreneur and writer passionately committed to alternative energy

“Slow Reckoning; the ecology of a divided planet”; Tom Athanasiou (1996) by an activist and writer. Still worth reading 20 years on for the breadth of its references

“The End of Nature – humanity, climate change and the natural world”; Bill McKibben (1989). McKibben was one of the early environmental writers – and this is his classic book

Update; https://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/the-politics-of-climate-change-is-this-time-different/