what you get here

This is not a blog which opines on current events. It rather uses incidents, books (old and new), links and papers to muse about our social endeavours.
So old posts are as good as new! And lots of useful links!

The Bucegi mountains - the range I see from the front balcony of my mountain house - are almost 120 kms from Bucharest and cannot normally be seen from the capital but some extraordinary weather conditions allowed this pic to be taken from the top of the Intercontinental Hotel in late Feb 2020

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Is Patriotism the Answer?

The discussions about the “limits to growth” have been going on for at least 50 years. Any serious threat to the conventional wisdom goes through several phases - initially ignored, then treated with ridicule. When the attacks start, it’s a clear indication that vested interests recognise they are in danger and need to change their tune. Perhaps the most dangerous phase (from the point of view of those challenging the prevailing consensus) is when the threatening ideas are accepted as the new wisdom - at which point a variety of delaying tactics can be deployed

Something significant seemed to have happened just a few years ago – with Greta Thurberg, Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal being straws in the wind. Climate Change has gone mainstream. Even the mass media find it difficult to resist the conclusion that it’s for real..Of course, the world remains divided between those convinced by the science and the “denialists” who share two important attitudes -  a scepticism about scientific claims and a resistance to change. But the Chinese government made the call about a decade ago for a transition to a greener economy – although it’s still a serious polluter. The US government is struggling to get a serious policy accepted by its Congress. The British government talks the talk but is unable to demonstrate any serious policies. 

The books about climate change have been pouring from the press for some 30 years and more – with Bill McKibben’s The End of Nature – humanity, climate change and the natural world” being one of the earliest in 1989. I’ve listed other texts I’ve found important in the reading list below. 

I’ve just finished a couple of fascinating new books which couldn’t be more different – the first Post Growth – life after capitalism (2021) by economist (in sustainable development) Tim Jackson; the other  Climate Change and the Nation State – the realist case” (2020)  by geopolitical strategist Anatol Lieven. 

The first is fairly dismissive of the Green New Deal – the second considers it a sine qua non. Lieven’s book is the more conventional in conducting a sustained argument – Jackson’s is almost poetic in tone and is populated with characters about whom he tells gripping stories. Not for nothing is he also a dramatist!  

The idea of deliberately choosing to slow down economic growth – let alone to pursue “degrowth” – is not one to which this blog has given any serious consideration. So Jackson’s book deserves an exclusive post.

I would summarise Lieven’s basic argument thus -     

-       Climate change has become the world’s number one problem

-       It can be tackled only at a national level

-       At the moment only some voices in the military and in insurance companies recognize the seriousness

-       No real strong pressure is being exerted where it matters

-       Consensus needs to be built

-       That possibility is being undermined by identity politics and the progressive belief in a world without borders

-    patriotism needs to be resurrected by the progressives

And some selected excerpts - 

The social and political danger to Western states is greater in the next decades even than most climate change scientists realize, because the effects of climate change will combine with two other critical challenges for Western societies: automation and artificial intelligence, which threaten the whole contemporary structure of employment, and migration. In combination with white nationalism, mass migration threatens irredeemably to divide societies and paralyze their political systems. Part of the background noise to the writing of this book strongly increased by fears in this regard: not just the Trump administration in the United States and the rise of chauvinist parties in Europe, but the amazing magic show called Brexit, in which a political order once renowned for its pragmatism and common sense transformed itself into play dough before our very eyes.

Populations have become divided in their fundamental understandings of their own national identities: in the United States, believers in a multi-cultural country defined by ideology and defined by multiple identities against believers in a cultural community chiefly defined by a confused appeal to an Anglo-American heritage; in Britain, believers in a multi-cultural, multi-ethnic Britain as part of the European Union against believers in an independent England defined by its own national history. As the miserable examples of Turkey and Egypt demonstrate, it is impossible to make democracy work when at each election, not policies but the very definition of the nation itself is at stake.

Such fractured political systems will have even less ability to do anything serious about anthropogenic climate change. Unless Western democracies can summon up the will to address these challenges, they will ultimately face a choice between authoritarian rule and complete political and social collapse. Having worked in Russia during the near collapse of the state and society in the 1990s, such a scenario is for me not a futurist fantasy but a vivid memory.

 Some of the Books which have made an impact on me

- Blessed Unrest - how the largest social movement in history is restoring grace, justice and beauty to the world; Paul Hawken (2007); Beautifully-written history of the environmental movement, with particular emphasis on the contemporary aspects. Very detailed annex.

-  “Storms of my Grandchildren – the truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity”; James Hansen (2009). A powerful story of how one scientist has tried to warn us

- Why we Disagree on Climate Change – understanding controversy, inaction and opportunity; Mike Hulme (2009). An environmental scientist Professor takes a rare and deep look into our cultural disagreements – using anthropological insights

- This Changes Everything – capitalism v the climate;  Naomi Klein (2014). This book by the Canadian journalist is written for those who are already convinced about the need for urgent action. Those new to the issue should first read books such as “The Uninhabitable Earth” and Lynas to get a sense of how bad things are. A couple of reviews give excellent and detailed summaries which will help you select the most appropriate part of Klein's book (the link in the title gives the entire text).  The first is here. The second review gives a useful summary of the scientific issues at stake and then of each chapter. Another review gives a more selective summary

- TheUninhabitable Earth – life after warming; David Wallace-Wells (2019) This highly readable book from a journalist who has compressed his extensive reading into a series of short, very punchy chapters can be accessed by clicking the title. 

- Commanding Hope – the power we have to renew a world in peril” (2020) which is one of the very few books I’ve seen which takes the crisis as read - and chooses instead to use our own reluctance to change our habits as the key with which to explore the values and worldviews lying at the heart of the different sense of identity we all have. (I wasn’t aware that Clive Hamilton produced Requiem for a species – why we resist the truth about climate change (2010) although only one chapter of the book seems to deal directly with the question in the subtitle).

Some previous posts on the issue

https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/requiem-for-our-species 

https://nomadron.blogspot.com/2020/12/commanding-hope.html

https://nomadron.blogspot.com/2020/03/facing-extinction.html

https://nomadron.blogspot.com/2014/07/why-we-disagree-on-wicked-problems.html

https://nomadron.blogspot.com/2019/07/what-is-wrong-with-us.html

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