American Madness – bombing Iran

The closest I came to Iran was when I worked (for 2 years) in Azerbaijan in the early 2000s and was for a few brief hours diverted to Tehran airport where I bought a couple of books (with pictures) about the country. But it did waken an interest in recent developments in the country’s history – which accounts for the 2 books I have in my library -

• The Last Great Revolution – turmoil and transformation in Iran Robin Wright (2000)
• Mirrors of the Unseen – journeys in Iran Jason Elliot (2006)

to which I’ve now added a third (duly downloaded)
Revolutionary Iran – a history of the Islamic Republic Michael Axworthy (2013)
I’ve long wanted to visit the country – inspired by the amazing Riowang site 

but Trump’s sudden decision to bomb the country has made this difficult.

“Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad” is a famous saying – never 

more appropriate than these days 

William Finnegan’s substack put it well -
If there is such a thing as a Trump Doctrine, it seems to go like this:

1. Lie about what’s happening.

2. Do a dramatic thing.

3. Declare victory.

4. Leave the rest of us to deal with the consequences.

This is not a doctrine. It’s a branding campaign wrapped in military 

hardware. If the actual goal is to deny Iran a nuclear weapon, then this 

doesn’t get it done. Taking out a few sites—without follow-up, 

escalation control, or regime-shaping strategy—achieves nothing except 

headlines and hashtags.

Even if we accept the premise (that Iran is actively developing a bomb), 

this was never going to stop them. Delay? Maybe. Deter? Not a chance.

Here’s the darker truth: the Trump Regime has been itching for a reason 

to reawaken the War on Terror—with all the domestic powers that come with it. 

I helped write some of those laws. Back then, even as we pushed boundaries, 

we held the line. We debated. We self-restrained. The current regime has no 

such scruples. Trump has turned the DOJ into his protection detail. 

He controls ICE, the National Guard, and increasingly the military. 

He governs not by law, but by loyalty.

If Americans start dying—if Iran retaliates and the body count rises—expect 

the response to be immediate and authoritarian. The Patriot Act was just the 

dress rehearsal. This time, the gloves come off.

Iran’s Response Menu: From Posturing to Pandemonium
So what does Iran do next? Here are their options, in rough order of 

plausibility:

Option 1: Do Nothing
Low probability. Tehran doesn’t think it started this. Sitting still would 

be domestically humiliating and strategically unrewarded.

Option 2: Hit U.S. Interests Abroad
Most likely. Think: Americans in Europe. Embassy staff. 

Energy contractors in Iraq. Targets that are symbolic but just outside 

the red line of triggering all-out war.

Option 3: Strike Military Assets
Also plausible. Swarm attacks in the Gulf, drone strikes on ships, 

leveraging the Houthis to disrupt Red Sea traffic.

Option 4: Cyber Retaliation
Dangerous but probable. Iran’s cyber wing is competent. A major U.S. 

infrastructure hit—if attributable—would trigger a scorched-earth response. 

They may try smaller disruptions first.

Option 5: Hit the Homeland
Least likely. Highest risk, highest reward. A suicide bomber in a 

New York subway? Mailboxes filled with C4? Iran gets one shot before 

America turns Persia into glass. And they know it.

Oh, Right… the Nuclear Problem
And through all this, we seem to have forgotten: Iran’s nuclear program 

still exists. Did we destroy it? Doubtful.
Did we delay it? Maybe six months.
Did we give them another reason to finish building the bomb? Absolutely.
I don’t care what Tulsi “Shampoo Commercial” Gabbard says—I think Iran is 

either near breakout or pretending very convincingly. 

And if they weren’t before, they’re incentivized now.

Suggested Reading/viewing

Trump bombs Iran – to view

George Galloway on the Iran war 23 June

US strikes Iran Vijay Prashad

Chris Hedges on Al-Jazeera – to view

obliterated? Michael Sellers

Gangster Empire Thomas Fazi

https://substack.com/home/post/p-166719706 
Netanyahu did not achieve regime change in Tehran—the real objective 
of his years-long campaign. Instead, he faced a resilient and unified 
Iran that struck back with precision and discipline. Worse still, he 
may have awakened something even more threatening to Israeli ambitions: 
a new regional consciousness.
Iran, for its part, emerges from this confrontation significantly 
stronger. Despite US and Israeli efforts to cripple its nuclear program, 
Iran has demonstrated that its strategic capabilities remain intact and 
highly functional. Tehran established a powerful new deterrence equation
—proving that it can strike not only Israeli cities but US
bases across the region. Even more consequentially, Iran waged this fight 
independently, without leaning on Hezbollah or Ansarallah, or even deploying 
Iraqi militias. This independence surprised many observers and forced a 
recalibration of Iran’s regional weight.
Iranian Unity
Perhaps the most significant development of all is one that cannot be 
measured in missiles or casualties: the surge in national unity within Iran 
and the widespread support it received across the Arab and Muslim world. 
For years, Israel and its allies have sought to isolate Iran, to present it 
as a pariah even among Muslims. Yet in these past days, we have witnessed 
the opposite. From Baghdad to Beirut, and even in politically cautious 
capitals like Amman and Cairo, support for Iran surged. This unity alone may 
prove to be Israel’s most formidable challenge yet. Inside Iran, the war 
erased, at least for now, the deep divides between reformists and conservatives. 
Faced with an existential threat, the Iranian people coalesced, not around 
any one leader or party, but around the defense of their homeland.