RISK ANALYSIS

I was just about to post about Socialism – having come across several books on that theme – but instead have chose to post about the rather arcane and technical subject of risk analysis, with a recent government publication on the subject viz Chronic Risks Analysis (HMSO 2025) from which I’ve taken the following extracts -

Example mitigations 
 
HM Government (2024) Climate Change Act 2008 the UK aims to achieve 

net zero emissions by 2050, with the Government’s mission to transform Britain 

into a Clean Energy Superpower as central to this commitment. The Third 

National Adaptation programme (2023-2028) includes a £15 million research 

fund and a Local Authority Climate Service pilot.

DEFRA (2023) The third National adaptation Programme (NAP3) and the 

fourth strategy for climate adaptation reporting The UK has invested £5.2 billion 

in flood defences

• Defra and National Audit Office (2023) Resilience to flooding and contributes up to £60 million internationally for climate related loss and damage.

• PM Office (2023) PM to call for ‘era of action’ at COP28 climate summit 

• Examples of additional benefits from taking action - Mitigating climate change and implementing adaptation measures enhances economic resilience by reducing vulnerability to extreme weather and enabling faster disaster recovery. 

• Climate adaptation actions can support vulnerable communities, promote social equity, reduce poverty, and improve wellbeing by building resilience to climate impacts. 

• Climate action can also improve public health, reduce NHS costs, enhance energy security, and help to preserve and promote biodiversity. 

What the future might hold 
Short-term trajectories: 

• People may increasingly need to remain at home to stay safe from extreme weather, which could have wider implications for the economy. 

• Hotter, drier summers might lead to more heat-related morbidity and mortality, transport disruptions, droughts, water shortages and increased wildfire incidents. 

• Animal welfare issues may emerge as livestock perish in heatwaves, affecting farming livelihoods. Failures in the global agriculture supply chain could lead to food shortages, which would impact health, inflation, social cohesion, and farmers’ incomes. 

Longer-term uncertainties: 

• Rising sea levels could disrupt UK sea ports and impact food imports, while 

overheating data centres caused by hotter climates may disrupt public and emergency services.

• Urban planning could prioritise green spaces and farmers may choose to 

diversify crops, making livelihoods more resilient to climate change 

Insurance companies tend to be the hottest on the trail of climate change – 
with this being a typical warning from the Allianz group - Too Hot 
to Grow (2026). 
But perhaps The Most Radical Post-growth Text is from Wall Street,
one which I’ve just come across yesterday.