I grant you
that, in these times of fake news, it is not easy to identify “reasonably
authoritative sources”!
But we can surely
rely on the World Health Organisation - which I found to be a highly cost-effective
organisation when I helped the Head of its European Public Health division for
six or so months in 1991. Certainly I find its
5 page Guidance Note a model of clear advice for governments.
But of course that’s not where we immediately head
when we want advice – we go to our favourite newspaper and to people we trust –
and we will generally take the advice we want to hear….That’s certainly what I
did – going to “The Guardian” which, of course, would and does take anything British
or US governments say with a huge pinch of salt….
One of the Guardian
articles
dealt with the question of handwashing – but not as well as a blogger who
happens to have been an environmental
health inspector and gave more detailed advice from his experience of a
variety of outbreaks including swine-fever and foot-and-mouth.
It was the same
blog which alerted
me earlier this week to just how much of an outlier the British Government
continues to be not just on Brexit but also on Coronavirus – with it choosing to delay the
introduction of the drastic steps which Italy and Spain (and other governments)
have already introduced.
But public pressure has forced the British government
to place restrictions on sporting events – although schools remain open. Even Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have closed their schools and universities…
The method in
the madness are some theories
called “herd immunity” and “Nudge theory” which argue that it is not
realistic to expect people to change their behaviour dramatically and that, if
the virus is let rip in the population, immunity will be acquired.....(!!!)
A variety of people have challenged this, with a former Director of Child Health at WHO emphasising that -
The Brits are supposed to be pragmatic – but here is yet another example it appears where theory is driving us, literally, to perdition. As is often the case, my friend Boffy has an important contrary view for which I am deeply grateful....This post of mine was drafted with a strong sense that I was venturing into, for me, uncharted waters....I had tried to get a response from one of my daughters, a Scottish medic, but she is in Norway on a cross-skiing venture!! And the only other medic in my family is currently awaiting a hip operation…….
But I still don't understand the failure to test those who are displaying flu-like symptoms and who could be contaminating others......Nor frontline doctors - no wonder one of them is reported as saying -
Some Italians managed to gives us musical cheer from their self-isolating balconies – also here and here
A variety of people have challenged this, with a former Director of Child Health at WHO emphasising that -
“The key
principle from WHO is intensive surveillance,” he
told the Guardian. “You test the population like crazy, find out where the
cases are, immediately quarantine them and do contact tracing and get them out
of the community. This deals with family clusters. That’s the key bedrock of
getting this under control.”
The Brits are supposed to be pragmatic – but here is yet another example it appears where theory is driving us, literally, to perdition. As is often the case, my friend Boffy has an important contrary view for which I am deeply grateful....This post of mine was drafted with a strong sense that I was venturing into, for me, uncharted waters....I had tried to get a response from one of my daughters, a Scottish medic, but she is in Norway on a cross-skiing venture!! And the only other medic in my family is currently awaiting a hip operation…….
But I still don't understand the failure to test those who are displaying flu-like symptoms and who could be contaminating others......Nor frontline doctors - no wonder one of them is reported as saying -
The point of
not testing you is to spread the infection, deliberately. That is the crazy
gamble of this “herd immunity” guess. And who better to spread the disease than
the people dealing with acute cases. There is no other logic to not testing
people.
Dr John Campbell has apparently
been running this excellent teaching
resource for some time. Another example of the difference which one effective individual can make!!
Some Italians managed to gives us musical cheer from their self-isolating balconies – also here and here
And the
redoubtable Tobias Jones – who has been entertaining us all from his base of
the last few decades in Parma gives us a superb
description of what it’s like to be in lockdown in the country
Sources
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/uk-covid-19-strategy-questions-unanswered-coronavirus-outbreak
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/13/why-is-the-government-relying-on-nudge-theory-to-tackle-coronavirus#comment-138916369
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/13/why-is-the-government-relying-on-nudge-theory-to-tackle-coronavirus#comment-138916369
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19
I'm waiting to hear a logical reason for closing schools. Children appear to be immune to the virus, so who is being protected by such an action? You could argue it the teachers, and ancillary staff. But, then we know that 80% of the population suffer either no symptoms or only minor symptoms. Of the rest, those at risk are well defined - over 60 and/or suffering some kind of underlying illness. Those amongst school staff could simply be put on sick leave, their places taken by younger healthier supply teachers and so on.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime closing down schools means that the parents also have to stay at home to look after them. Some of those parents will be health and social care workers. That means not only those requiring treatment for the virus, but also the tens of thousands more who require emergency and other life saving treatment do not get it, so that mortality rates rise. Other parents will work in other vital industries, so that alongside the social distancing policy, the policy of telling anyone with a sniffle, or who wants a couple of weeks off on the basis that they might be infected, to stay away from work would bring large parts of the economy to a standstill. An obvious case is electricity supply. If a sufficient number of electricity supply workers are away from work, then electricity supply shuts off. If even that applies to a few large generators that will happen in Britain due to the operation of the grid. It won't be Chinese hackers bringing about that dislocation, but the advice of the government!
A couple of days without electricity throughout the economy will bring about many more deaths than COVID19, which we should remember, in Britain remains at only 20, or about the number deaths per week from road accidents. Its still way below the 17,000 deaths from flu in 2018, and way, way below the 80,000 deaths per year from smoking related diseases.
many thanks for that Boffy. I was very aware that I was venturing into territory which is not naturally mine - and that I had done little research.....
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