It was Bill Clinton who, during the Lewinsky impeachment, famously
answered “it all depends what you mean by "is”. That is the stage we are
reaching with Brexit
As you might anticipate from ex-Eton schoolboys, the UK government
continues to operate with counter-productive petulance and high-handedness. It was the threat of a No-Deal and Johnson’s
attempt at prorogation that produced both the Benn Act and Saturday’s postponement of a vote on the “Johnson deal”.
And the Eton arrogance was on display at the end of Saturday’s parliamentary
proceedings when the Leader of the House – the fop Rees-Mogg – announced that
the vote on the Johnson deal would take place on Monday and then flounced out
without taking any questions. The Speaker of the House of Commons will actually decide
whether it is appropriate for the House to resume consideration of the matter…..
A few hours later, PM Johnson – having stated in the House that he
would not be seeking "to negotiate a delay" – sent not one letter to Donald Tusk of
the European Council but three – the
last of which baldly stated that no extension of the 31st October deadline was
being sought.
He didn’t even bother to sign the first letter – which indicates the
crassness of the man….. (The second letter is an explanatory note from the UK Ambassador
to the EU)
Technically his third letter is
inconsistent with the Benn Act – and is
therefore illegal. So on Monday the court
consideration of that point will be resumed.
The UK Courts are naturally very reluctant to get involved with anything that smacks of politics – but have a duty to uphold the Rule of Law – as they did unanimously on the attempted suspension of parliament at the end of last month.
The UK Courts are naturally very reluctant to get involved with anything that smacks of politics – but have a duty to uphold the Rule of Law – as they did unanimously on the attempted suspension of parliament at the end of last month.
A lot of British people are saying they “just want it all to be over”. What
they don’t seem to understand, however, that no one really knows what “it” is. I know this sounds clever – but it
isn’t. It’s the reality.
- Theresa May’s 2018 deal was what is called a “soft” Brexit – remaining inside the Customs Union (CU) and Single Market (SM)
- Johnson’s is a “hard” Brexit – with the entire UK except for Northern Ireland being outside the CU and SM at December 2020. We don't actually know what sort of trade arrangements will be attempted with the EU and others. If the EU negotiations on that score (by December 2020) are unsuccessful (or later if agreed), we could crash out with “No Deal”
- “No Deal” has the country crashing out on 31 October – with total uncertainty and with no trade deals negotiated and operating immediately under World Trade Organisation Rules
- The publication on Friday of the detailed text of the new Johnson Deal confirms that he favours the American (ie minimal) regulatory model for trade agreement to which all british trade unions and what’s left of manufacturing industrialists are opposed
- Theresa May’s 2018 deal was what is called a “soft” Brexit – remaining inside the Customs Union (CU) and Single Market (SM)
- Johnson’s is a “hard” Brexit – with the entire UK except for Northern Ireland being outside the CU and SM at December 2020. We don't actually know what sort of trade arrangements will be attempted with the EU and others. If the EU negotiations on that score (by December 2020) are unsuccessful (or later if agreed), we could crash out with “No Deal”
- “No Deal” has the country crashing out on 31 October – with total uncertainty and with no trade deals negotiated and operating immediately under World Trade Organisation Rules
- The publication on Friday of the detailed text of the new Johnson Deal confirms that he favours the American (ie minimal) regulatory model for trade agreement to which all british trade unions and what’s left of manufacturing industrialists are opposed
Further Reading
For once, a political “correspondent” actually gave a good summary of the event viz https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/20/boris-johnson-saturday-drama-turns-to-farce-all-his-own-fault
As I’ve indicated, there are only two blogs which give you the “unvarnished
truth” on Brexit. Oddly, they are from opposite ends of the Brexit
spectrum…..
- The first is that of the man who has argued for Brexit for many
decades, the only person to have produced a blueprint for it (subsequently
ignored by Brexiteers because it warned that it would decade at least a decade
to unpick the country from all the EU legislation) - Richard
North’s EU Referendum
blog which gives you here his assessment
of what happens now
- The other blog is that of Chris Grey – The Brexit Blog – who gave
us today this analysis which is what I have based this post on.
Readers who want to get a sense of what
leftist Brexiteers think should keep an eye on The Full Brexit blog
As resort to the Courts is always
possible, I will also be keeping an eye on the Constitutional Unit’s blogFor once, a political “correspondent” actually gave a good summary of the event viz https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/20/boris-johnson-saturday-drama-turns-to-farce-all-his-own-fault
And, as always, Boffy continues to challenge conventional wisdom - https://boffyblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/no-deal-is-better-than-johnsons-deal.html
"It was the threat of a No-Deal and Johnson’s attempt at prorogation that produced both the Benn Act and Saturday’s postponement of a vote on the “Johnson deal”."
ReplyDeleteIn fact, Steve Baker, immediately pointed out that the government had NOT postponed the vote on the deal. He pointed out that, the amendment having been carried, the substantive motion was then put, a amended, and that there being no shouts of opposition "Nay", there was no division, but that where no such division occurs, the motion is carried.
In fact, therefore, Johnson could argue that he had complied with the Benn Act, because it had been put to parliament and approved without division. This is the same manoeuvre that the government pulled off a few weeks ago.
They appear to be saying they will resubmit the deal for a vote next week, not because it wasn't put, but because they want to get it passed without the Letwin Amendment. My guess is the Speaker will not allow that, and having run down the clock a bit more, its still open to Johnson to resign, force the rabble alliance into further conflict, and thereby lead to a GE.
However, time for a GE is running out. It can't be held after mid December, until probably March, because of weather conditions in the Scottish isles and so on. If the EU refuses an extension - highly unlikely - parliament will have a choice of Revoke or Johnson's Deal, or No Deal.
Its obvious that Johnson's goal is a managed No Deal, negotiated in the 12 months of the transitional period that will come into play if his deal is agreed.