while our attention was diverted.......

We were all so focused on Brussels yesterday that we forgot to keep check on what was happening in Westminster where the government was defeated by 12 votes on a motion tabled by Sir Oliver Letwin, the former Tory cabinet minister, ensuring that, when the Commons votes on the Brexit deal tomorrow, it will be possible for MPs to debate and vote on multiple amendments.

Taking advantage of his own rule change, Letwin has tabled an amendment to the government motion tomorrow. It has heavyweight, cross-party support, with those backing it including Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Brexit committee, Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, and Philip Hammond, the former Conservative chancellor.

The amendment would remove almost all the government motion (which says the Commons has approved the Brexit deal) and withhold approval of the deal until the legislation implementing it has been passed.

As Letwin explained in the debate yesterday, his aim is to close a loophole in the Benn Act, the legislation forces the PM to request a Brexit extension if a deal has not been passed by the end of tomorrow.

A vote in favour of the deal would have meant there was no need for the PM to request an extension. But if the withdrawal agreement bill (WAB) failed to get through parliament by 31 October (several stages or “readings” are necessary and key individuals could be missing), the UK could end up leaving with no-deal by accident.

                          

Letwin’s amendment would lead to the PM having to request an extension tomorrow, on the proviso that if the WAB gets through by the end of October, at that point the extension would be withdrawn. You could call it a backstop.

The Benn Act passed by 29 votes at second reading and it is likely that the Letwin amendment, which is just intended to copper bottom the Benn Act, will also pass tomorrow.

If it does, the make-or-break vote on Johnson’s deal will never actually take place. Instead MPs will vote on a bland motion (see below), which could go through on the nod.

At that point, if Johnson complies with the assurances that he gave to the court of session in Scotland, he will have to write a letter to the EU requesting an extension.

And at that point Johnson would have to decide whether to try to pass his withdrawal agreement bill by 31 October, to release him from the obligation to take up the extension - or whether to accept the extension, and then hold the election that Labour has promised to back in the event of an extension happening. He would campaign promising to implement his Brexit deal - against Labour promising a further negotiation.

This is starting to get speculative, but what is clear is that there is now a real chance that “Super Saturday” could turn out not to be the make-or-break Brexit moment people have been expecting.

Assuming that Letwin’s amendment passes, this is the motion, as amended, that MPs would be voting on. (The Letwin text, replacing 12 lines in the original, is in bold.)

That, in light of the new deal agreed with the European Union, which enables the United Kingdom to respect the result of the referendum on its membership of the European Union and to leave the European Union on 31 October with a deal, this house has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed.

You can read the text of the Letwin amendment on the order paper here (pdf).