what you get here

This is not a blog which opines on current events. It rather uses incidents, books (old and new), links and papers to muse about our social endeavours.
So old posts are as good as new! And lots of useful links!

The Bucegi mountains - the range I see from the front balcony of my mountain house - are almost 120 kms from Bucharest and cannot normally be seen from the capital but some extraordinary weather conditions allowed this pic to be taken from the top of the Intercontinental Hotel in late Feb 2020
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Varoufakis. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Varoufakis. Sort by date Show all posts

Sunday, August 27, 2017

A Political Economy Thriller

Yanis Varoufakis is like the treacly spread product Marmite – which people either love or hate – there seems no compromise between the two positions.
 I happen to think he’s a very good analyst and writer – if rather too prone to court the headlines for sllck comments.
I had first come across him in 2012 when I enjoyed The Global Minotaur – America, the True Origins of the Financial Crisis and the Future of the World Economy (2011) and had then followed his elevation and performance as Greece’s Economics Minister - for 6 brief months - in 2015 with great interest.

I have just got around to reading his And the Weak Suffer what They Must? – Europe, Austerity and the threat to Global Stability (2016) which clearly draws on his experience of his harrowing 6 months in the eye of the financial and political storm - but which resists the temptation to elaborate on his personal encounters with the various European and international players in that “Drama” (which is actually also the name of a small Greek town very near the border with Bulgaria in which a problem with fuel injection once forced me to spend a night!).
Such an elaboration, he told us, needed a bit more distance – but it was not all that long in coming – in the form of Adults in the Room – published earlier this year which Paul Mason has described as one of the greatest political memoirs…..

Although “And the Weak Suffer…..” has been published for more than a year, it has (if Google is to be believed) attracted surprisingly few reviews.
It seems fairly obvious that Varoufakis has offended so many of the powerful figures in politics and academia that only people such as Mark Blyth and Paul Mason are willing to put their heads above the parapets and write positively about him……
But one fan is an Australian academic whose review of the book on the Open Democracy website is, for me, a model of how a review should be conducted with a focus on both content and style;    
This book is far more than a re-statement of Varoufakis’ 2011 book, The Global Minotaur…but it is that first book which provides the structure here – as a play in three acts.Act One is set in the years 1944 to 1971. When the present global economy was set up at Bretton Woods, the US was gripped by a New Deal fear of international financial chaos but was not prepared to let its dominance of the post-war globe slip in order to generate a truly self-balancing global economy.
This led to the US rejecting Keynes’ plan to construct a genuinely international currency and a genuinely international set of surplus and deficit rebalancing institutions but…….., by investing their own surplus into Germany and Japan in particular, the US was able to re-build Europe and Asia and recreate them – politically and economically – in something like its own image. On the whole, things worked exceptionally well for what we now call the post-war boom (1949– 1971). But when the astronomical expense of the Cold War kicked in and the US stopped running a surplus, the Bretton Woods system simply fell over, leaving the globe in a mess.
 Act Two the US was able to maintain global dominance as a deficit economy. The Nixon Shock of 1971 produced the stagflation sickness of the 1970s which was then ‘cured’ in the 1980s by the staggering success of financialized and transnationalized corporatism. But the architecture of the post-Nixon area was inherently unstable, inherently disconnected from sustainable human and economic realities, and it all came crashing down in 2008.
 Act Three starts in 2008. Here, after acts one and two have both ended in tears, the global economy is terminally wounded and must either die or face radical reconstructive surgery. Now, despite the various appearances of recovery, it is simply the case that the mechanisms and institutions that used to keep the global economic order in some sort of functional balance have all failed. We have only just started Act Three, but it could end quickly, and violently.

The reviewer than asks one of the questions so few bother to – “So, how does “And the Weak Suffer as they Must?” take up this narrative and tell us things we did not know and need to know now?” 
Reading “And the Weak Suffer as they Must?” is like reading a gripping thriller. It is a page turner because the plot itself is a relentless sequence of astonishing twists and turns driven by the cunning ingenuity and hubristic folly of its key protagonists.Even if you know a lot about the Eurozone, Varoufakis’ carefully researched account, with its vivid glimpses into the motivations and outlooks of key players, and its expansive breadth in appreciating the global dynamics pressuring localized decisions, is unerringly startling.
Yet it is no novel. Varoufakis’ book has something made-up stories can only mimic; the texture of real history. But here is the key thing that Varoufakis has so carefully noticed. In the texture of real history, convenient illusions are typically a great deal more influential in the circles of power and normality than is truth.
It is for this reason that, in real history, truth usually seems stranger than fiction. And yet, Varoufakis also notices that the texture of history is such that truth always has the last say, no matter how hard the powers of illusion and convenience seek to keep the dream alive by helping us to stay asleep. Varoufakis’ insight into the relationship between what normal mainstream people and the great and powerful want (even need) to believe, and what is actually going on, is a key feature of the significance of this book.
He weaves his intricate and tense narrative fabric out of illusion and reality (the texture of real history) by constantly shifting our gaze between three interconnected focal lengths.
- With the first, Varoufakis enables us to see how the world looks through the myopia of the common man’s desire to doggedly hope that our leaders know what they are doing while we just get on with our lives. This myopia is savagely reinforced by the news media and integrated with the myopia of European high power.And that high power cannot see past the end of its own nose, defined as it is by the bureaucratic echo-chamber of self-perpetuating institutional power. 
- This short-sighted focal length insight is then overlaid with a 20 20 focal length perspective provided by Varoufakis’ forensic knowledge of how Eurozone power actually functions. Here we get a nauseating sense of how badly awry things are when very basic macro-economic realities are simple banished from the ‘negotiating’ table laid out by the powers that be. 
- This perspective is in turn overlaid with a telescopic focus, the far-sighted and sweeping historical panorama which shows us why the Eurozone is what it is. This enables us to see – in the one account – the disjunction between ‘normal’ financial and public affairs orthodoxies, the ‘realism’ mandated by prevailing power interests, and what is actually happening to Europeans.

This is one of those books which needs to be read a second time – and more closely…..and rates up there along with Mark Blyth’s Austerity – the history of a dangerous idea (2013). In a few months, another (smaller) book will come from Varoufakis. I already have the German version which is called “Time for Change; how I explain the economy to my daughter”. The English version bears the title “Talking to my daughter about the economy; a brief history of capitalism

A Varoufakis Resource
https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/paul-tyson/varoufakis-%E2%80%93-new-kind-of-politics (2015); a profile of the man
The Global Minotaur - the full book!! Which is one of the very few which clearly explains the working of the global economy of the past 50 years. It succeeds simply because, for once, an economist has the courage to put the story in a geopolitical context.  

Reviews of "Adults in the Room"

Sunday, June 3, 2018

"With a little help from my Friends"

Friends of this blog have noticed my silence these past few months….and I’m grateful for signs that readers haven’t completely given up on me…
And it’s not just writing that I’ve found difficult – these past few months I’ve found that books have also become a big turn-off.
Perhaps it was the burst of reading and writing I did in the autumn for the blog series about the State and pubic management literature which finished me off - somehow I can’t take any more the dry, reified technicalities which most non-fiction work offers these days.
That, you may say, surely leaves the way open for novels – a genre I’ve admitted I rarely feel partial to (it’s 8 years since I last tried to give a sense of my favourites in that genre) And indeed I did reread with interest last month Alan Massie’s classic A Question of Loyalties and Bordeaux trilogy as well as some John le Carre novels last week……

It was perhaps a hopeful sign this week that some authors actually started to speak to me again…
-       Yanis Varoufakis’ And the Weak Suffer What They Must? – Europe, Austerity and the threat to global stability was the first voice to try to cajole me out of the lethargy which has been like a funeral pall these past few months. I had started the book last year, rediscovered it in a friend's house in April and found it a gripping read - effectively an update of his "Global Minotaur", I then moved onto the more autobiographical “Adults in the Room – my battle with Europe’s Deep Establishment” (2017) which is a "kiss and tell" about his 6 months' spell as Greek Minister of Finance (the phrase "Glasgow kiss" comes to mind!). The reviews contained in the 2 links give some of the essential background if you’re not already familiar with this controversial writer. I like the historical sweep and biographical tone of his writing but know that many find him a bit...well.... "showy"….I've attached at the bottom a short Varoufakis resource which includes important critiques of this latest book (and also Varoufakis' response to the more significant critiques)  
-       And a book about healthy eating and living which has been lying on my shelves for more than a decade also had the tone and voice I seem to need these days - and led me back to the little library I have of Michael Pollan’s superbly written books eg In Defence of Food and Food Rules – let alone his The Botany of Desire (2001) a foretaste of his latest book - How to Change your Mind – the new science of psychedelics

These days, I need writing which jolts me – not for its own sake but to help first identify minds which look at the world in original ways but which also understand that clear language is an essential tool for such originality…Recently deceased essayist Tom Wolfe was a favourite of mine ever since I first read his Mau Mauing the flak catchers in 1970 but the “creative writing” courses which have contaminated journalism in the past few decades have made me suspicious of even good journalists these days. James Meek remains an exception for his ability to reduce economic complexities to 5 or 10 thousand word essays – ditto Jonathan Meades for his forensic analyses of cultural issues.

Varoufakis and Pollan are, for me, all too rare examples of the sort of writing which is needed if authors are to stand out against the verbiage and noise which assails us everywhere these days………

The title is that of a famous Beatles song whose lyrics can be read here -https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/beatles/withalittlehelpfrommyfriends.html

A Varoufakis Resource

Reviews of "Adults in the Room"
http://www.cadtm.org/Yanis-Varoufakis-s-Account-of-the; an important serial critique of "Adults in the Room" from someone on the Syrizan Left. Its first part contains one of the few exposes of Varoufakis' basic negotiating strategy you will find in the English language
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/06/yanis-varoufakis-latest-eurogroup-statement-keeps-greece-on-the-austerity-rack.html; an example of some of YV's doodles!

For those who want an independent "take" on the greek economy of the past decade or so, I strongly recommend this blog from a retired German banker whose marriage takes him frequently to Greece,,,,

Sunday, July 12, 2026

About Capitalism

 Talking to my Daughter about the Economy Varoufakis (2018)

Besides the works of literature and the poems mentioned in the text, as well as the science-fiction movies without which I find it hard to understand the present, I shall mention four books: Jared Diamond’s Guns, Steel and Germs, which underpins the story in the first chapter that explains the emergence of gross inequities and, ultimately, racist stereotyping; Richard Titmuss’s The Gift Relationship, whose discussion of the blood market underscores ideas first developed in Karl Polanyi’s Great Transformation; Robert Heilbroner’s majestic The Worldly Philosophers; and novelist Margaret Atwood’s Payback, which I recommend unreservedly as perhaps the best, and most entertaining, book ever written on debt.

Finally, it would be remiss not to mention the spectre of Karl Marx, the dramaturgy of the ancient Athenian tragedians, John Maynard Keynes’s clinical dissection of the so-called ‘fallacy of composition’ and lastly the irony and insights of Bertolt Brecht. Their stories, theories and obsessions haunt every thought I ever had, including the ones laid down in this book.

And this is a useful summary of what the book is trying to say - Talking to My Daughter About the Economy: A Brief History of Capitalism” is a book written 
by Yanis Varoufakis, an economist and former Greek finance minister. The book aims to
explain complex economic concepts in a simple and accessible manner, targeting a general
audience, including the author’s daughter.
In the book, Varoufakis provides an engaging and insightful overview of the history of
capitalism, tracing its origins and evolution from ancient times to the modern era.
He delves into the key economic ideas and theories that have shaped the world we live in,
including the role of markets, money, and finance.
Varoufakis also highlights the inherent flaws and inequalities within the capitalist system
and discusses how these issues have contributed to various economic crises throughout history.
He addresses contemporary challenges, such as the increasing wealth gap and the impact of
globalization, offering his perspectives on potential solutions and alternatives for a more
equitable economic future.
Overall, “Talking to My Daughter About the Economy” presents a captivating and approachable
exploration of the complex world of economics, making it accessible to readers who may not
have a background in the subject while encouraging critical thinking about the current economic
system and its implications for society.
Key concepts and ideas.
  1. Capitalism’s Historical Development: The book provides a historical overview of how 
    capitalism evolved over time. It traces its roots back to ancient civilizations,
    through feudalism and mercantilism, to the industrial revolution and the emergence
    of modern capitalist societies.
  2. The Role of Markets and Money: Varoufakis explains the significance of markets in 
    capitalist economies as mechanisms for the exchange of goods and services.
    He also discusses the importance of money as a means of facilitating these exchanges
    and its role in shaping economic activities.
  3. Invisible Hand and Self-Interest: The book explores Adam Smith’s concept of the 
    “invisible hand,” the idea that individuals pursuing their self-interest in a
    competitive market can unintentionally benefit society as a whole.
  4. The Division of Labour and Productivity: Varoufakis discusses how the division of 
    labor and specialization in capitalist economies have contributed to increased productivity
    and economic growth.
  5. Capital and Surplus Value: The author delves into the concept of capital and how surplus 
    value is generated in capitalist systems through the exploitation of labor, often leading
    to income inequality.
  6. The Great Depression and Economic Crises: The book examines historical economic crises, 
    including the Great Depression of the 1930s, to illustrate the inherent instabilities
    and vulnerabilities of capitalist economies.
  7. Globalization and Financialization: Varoufakis explores the impacts of globalization and 
    financialization on economies worldwide, emphasizing how these processes have transformed
    the nature of capitalism in recent decades.
  8. Income Inequality and Wealth Concentration: The book addresses the growing issue of income 
    inequality and the concentration of wealth among a small segment of the population, which
    can have detrimental effects on social cohesion and economic stability.
  9. The Role of Governments: The author discusses the role of governments in managing 
    capitalist economies, including their responsibilities for regulation, social welfare,
    and addressing market failures.
  10. Alternatives and Proposals: Throughout the book, Varoufakis presents alternative economic 
    ideas and policies that aim to address the shortcomings of capitalism and promote a fairer
    and more sustainable economic system.
  11. Economic Democracy: One of the core themes is the notion of “economic democracy,” which 
    involves giving citizens a more direct say in economic decisions that affect their lives,
    rather than leaving these choices exclusively to market forces and corporations.
  12. Social Responsibility and Solidarity: The book promotes the idea of fostering a sense of 
    social responsibility and solidarity among individuals and societies, aiming for a more
    compassionate and just economic order.
Overall, “Talking to My Daughter About the Economy” presents a comprehensive exploration 
of capitalism and its historical development, offering readers an engaging and thought
-provoking perspective on the complex world of economics and its impact on society.
The Destiny of Civilisation – finance capitalism, industrial capitalism
or socialism
Michael Hudson
(2022)

Michael’s decision to shift to economics was dramatic. One evening, af­ter moving to New York planning to publish the works of Schenker, George Lukacs and others, he had dinner with Terence McCarthy, an Irish com­munist and translator of Karl Marx’s Theories of Surplus Value. The con­versation turned to how changes in water levels caused crop failures in the United States that led to an autumnal drain of money from the stock and bond market, and hence to periodic financial crises. In Michael’s words, “to me, these interconnections between production, finance and the over­all economy’s systemic relationships were so beautiful, so aesthetic in their unfolding—like musical counterpoint leading to modulation to a higher overtone key—that I decided on the spot to become an economist.” Ever since, he says, he has been able to achieve in his economic writing what he could not have created in music.

Michael’s first training followed his acceptance of the condition Terence McCarthy set to mentor him: that he would read all the works in the bib­liography of Marx’s Theories of Surplus Value. So while taking his graduate degrees and working for Wall Street banks, Michael also worked part-time for the publisher Augustus Kelley to recommend and write introductions to reprints of economic classics. In the process, he acquired a library of books by economists missing from the “normal” history of economic thought.

Childhood and teenage experience—in an adversarial position

Michael’s disposition certainly has a lot to do with his family and social background during his formative years. He was born in March 1939 in Minneapolis, Minnesota, into a family of labor activists. Of all the cities in the world, Minneapolis had the strongest Trotskyist influence. Michael’s father, Carlos Hudson, had worked with Leon Trotsky in Mexico and had been one of the leaders of the great Minneapolis general strike of 1934 as editor of the Northwest Organizer. His father loved Huckleberry Finn, and Michael was called “Huck” by family and friends. But since his father’s par­ty name was Jack Ranger, Michael as a boy also was nicknamed “The son of the Lone Ranger.”

When Michael was three years old, Carlos Hudson was jailed under the Smith Act as one of the Minneapolis 17. Carlos remarked that his year in prison was the happiest time of his life, being assigned to the library, where he collected a long list of proverbs that Michael reproduced on his blog in June 2017. Reading “Dad’s Many Proverbs,” one might come to see not only how J is for Junk Economics came to be structured, but also where Michael’s remarkable sense of humor and witty comments can be traced.

When he was growing up in Chicago, visitors to his house included former German colleagues of Rosa Luxemburg and Karl Liebknecht, and members of the Third International when Lenin was still alive and in pow­er. There was almost constant discussion of socialist doctrine and tactics in the meetings convened in his home. When Michael was 14 years old, in the University of Chicago’s high school, he was called a fascist by Stalinists and a communist by fascists. He told me, “I was very happy being in an adversarial position, yet also the reasonable voice avoiding ideology. I liked being hated by the right-wing because it made me a lot of friends and I re­cruited many members into the socialist youth groups in Chicago.”

Getting more confident and stronger when put in an adversarial position probably has been one of the key traits of his life. Michael has never accept­ed the world as it is, with its frauds, hypocrisy and injustice. Yet it has taken more than self-confidence and a strong spine to become the great econo­mist that he is today. One reason for his brilliance and uniqueness is that he has not been swayed by his academic training in the unrealistic theories of the economics schools in the universities that justify rather than critically challenge the status quo. Michael has developed his analytic ideas through his real-life work experience in many countries, combined with his deep understanding of the history of economic thought.

Wall Street bank experience—countering ideology

While employed by Wall Street banks as a statistical economist to under­stand how the financialized economy works, Michael studied for a Master’s and then a PhD degree in economics at New York University. According to him, most teachers in the master’s program at NYU were part-time. The relatively few full-time academics had no experience working in a bank or corporation; their worldview came from textbooks. Michael fortunately found out for himself how the banks worked, starting as a statistical ana­lyst for the Savings Bank Trust for three years, and then as balance-of-pay­ments economist for the Chase Manhattan Bank from 1964 to 1967.

Initially, Michael’s job was to trace how savings were recycled into new mortgage loans by New York’s savings banks. His research showed that most deposits grew not by new saving, but simply by the accrual of div­idends at compound interest. This exponential growth was recycled into new mortgage loans to buyers of real estate, seeking ever larger debt/eq­uity ratios in order to dispose of the surplus finance capital. He saw that commercial banks did not lend money to finance new industrial capital investment, but only lent against existing assets, seeking above all to turn their profits or rents into a flow of interest payments. In short, rents were for paying interest. And increasingly today, so are wages, because payments on bank loans, mortgage loans, student debt and credit-card debt eat away at the disposable income of most families. This is the monthly “nut” that households pay to the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector off the top of their paychecks.

Later, at Chase Manhattan, Michael compiled statistics to trace how the export earnings of foreign countries were captured into paying debt service. He also traced statistically how U.S. oil companies made profits by “transfer pricing,” selling crude oil production cheaply to tax-free “non-countries” such as Liberia or Panama that used U.S. currency. The oil was then re-sold to refineries in Europe and the USA at a mark-up so high that oil compa­nies had no profits to report, and hence paid no income tax anywhere on their international and domestic operations. To U.S. policy makers, this exploitation was a success story. In 1966 the oil industry had copies of Mi­chael’s report placed on the desk of every senator and representative, and obtained special favoritism as a result of the sector’s strong contribution to the U.S. balance of payments during the Vietnam War years.

The conflict between this reality and academic orthodoxy struck him in 1968 when he had to retake the money-and-banking part of his PhD orals, because his answers were based on his real-world monetary and financial experience, which was at odds with the Chicago School monetarism and vulgarized Keynesian liberalism that had become the academic norm. That was an era when textbooks still taught of helicopters dropping money on the economy—not acknowledging the principle that Michael has made at many monetary conferences ever since: the central bank’s helicopter only flies over Wall Street. Money from this helicopter is lent out to buyers of real estate, stocks and bonds (and to corporate raiders), with little being spent on goods and services. So the effect is asset-price inflation—which Michael has shown leads to debt deflation as homeowners need to borrow higher and higher mortgage loans to afford the debt-inflated cost of hous­ing, leaving them with less to spend on real goods and services. This now-obvious linkage between rising housing costs and debt de­flation was deemed heresy in the 1960s. Mainstream economists thought that as families became wealthier homeowners, they would have more to spend—ignoring the debt dimension of how homes were bought on credit that steadily pushed up the cost of obtaining housing. The Finance, Insur­ance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector was (and still is) treated as if its rentier income should be added to the economy’s output instead of siphoning it off.

Economic historian—delving into the origins of money and debt

Michael’s experience on Wall Street inspired him to set about investigating the origins of money and replacing the individualistic theories of its ori­gin with a more realistic and historically based explanation. His technical articles and monographs are now accepted as documenting how money originated, not in barter among individuals, but as a means of palatial ac­counting in Bronze Age Mesopotamia, above all to denominate debts owed to the palace, temples and other creditors in grain and silver as common denominators whose units were set as having equal value for fiscal pay­ments to the palace.

Michael also has shown that instead of interest being invented by in­dividuals lending cattle or grain to reflect productivity rates (as Austrian theory imagines), early interest rates were set by the palaces or other civic authorities simply on the basis of ease of accounting, in terms of the local system of fractions—60ths in Mesopotamia and Egypt, decimals in Egypt and Greece, and the 12-based duodecimal system in Rome (1 troy ounce on the pound per year), increasingly decimalized into 1 percent per month. Finally, he has applied this historical analysis to modern times by show­ing that throughout history, debts have grown at compound interest faster than the economy is able to pay, leading to foreclosures and economic po­larization if the debts are not cancelled. Indeed, for this reason, personal debts were cancelled when new rulers took the throne in Sumer, Babylonia, Egypt and their neighboring lands, in contrast to Greek and Roman oligar­chic opposition to debt cancellation and imposition of pro-creditor laws.

Michael’s insights into the workings of modern financialized rent-seeking economies, both within the United States and globally, have prompted him to conduct years of research not only into the origins of money and account­ing, but into the origins of labor and how it was paid, the origins of land tenure and taxation, and the origins and history of debt. This analysis has led to his well-known proposition that “debts that can’t be paid, won’t be paid,” and to his advocacy that unpayable debts should be cancelled, and can be cancelled without causing economic disruption—and indeed that without doing so, economies will polarize and crash.

At the World Social Forums, I had marched with tens of thousands of participants, including Samir Amin and Immanuel Wallerstein, with a banner whose slogan “Don’t owe, won’t pay” demanded cancellation of debts for impoverished countries of the Global South. However, I some­times wondered if the slogan was chanted by many from a political posi­tion without a deep understanding of how the debts were generated. The slogan would be meek if it were only a political position to express the distress of the indebted countries and peoples, without an appreciation of why and how the debts should be cancelled.

Michael’s advocacy of debt cancellation does not come from a simplis­tic political position, though certainly the proposition itself is profoundly political. The proposition comes from his insider knowledge of the oper­ation of banks, oil companies, the government and even the military. This experience informed his understanding of the domestic and global politics of the United States, and of the financial dynamics of debt and the long history of debt cancellation in antiquity. Exempt from academic dogma­tism and left-wing infantilism, Michael’s economic theories are based on decades of pragmatic statistical and historical inquiry, backed by his earlier training in cultural history as well as his comprehensive reading of Marx’s economic works.

Staunch critic of U.S. Super Imperialism

Working for the accounting firm Arthur Anderson, Michael spent a year analyzing the U.S. balance of payments. His statistics showed that the en­tire payments deficit resulted from military spending on the Vietnam War and elsewhere. Seeking ways to finance that military deficit led the U.S. Government to ameliorate the worsening balance-of-payments deficit by asking U.S. banks to set up branches in offshore banking centers to attract the world’s criminal capital, from drug dealings to kleptocratic embezzle­ment (the world’s new “neoliberal” sectors). This outgrowth of oil-indus­try “flags of convenience” has led to today’s crisis of tax enclaves enabling the world’s wealthy individuals and corporations to avoid taxation and file fictitious economic statistics. Michael has exposed this in numerous intro­ductions to books and in interviews in documentary films.

Michael’s understanding of how the global economy under U.S. hege­mony worked enabled him to forecast in Ramparts in 1968 that the USA would have to go off gold, which it indeed did in August 1971. Explaining how ending the gold standard had inaugurated the U.S. Treasury-bill stan­dard that obliged foreign governments to finance the U.S. balance-of-pay­ments and domestic budget deficits, his first book, Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire (1972), gained him international recognition and has been translated into many languages. He had hoped to help countries resist the system of dollarization that has enabled the United States to obtain a free ride for its foreign military spending and takeover of other economies. But from the very beginning, the U.S. Government used the book as a how-to-do-it manual. Michael was quickly employed by Herman Kahn’s Hudson Institute to explain to the White House and the Department of Defense how the new international financial order worked.

The success of Michael’s books led many Wall Street and Canadian fi­nancial institutions to retain him as a consultant forecasting interest rates and currency exchange rates. The Canadian government invited him as fi­nancial advisor to develop the balance-of-payments dimension of what has become Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), showing that Canada did not need foreign loans to finance its provincial and other domestic spending. His book describing why Canada did not need foreign borrowing for its provinces and companies to spend domestically, Canada in the New Mone­tary Order (1978), showed that when Canada borrowed abroad, the central bank still had to create domestic money in any case to be spent locally as a counterpart to the foreign currency inflow. Hardly by surprise, this led to passionate attacks by Canada’s banks seeking to profiteer by indebting the economy through their loan underwriting. But it also led to further con­tracts with Canada’s State Department and Science Council.

In the late 1970s, Michael was invited by the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) to become economic advisor on North-South debt and trade. He warned of the coming Latin American debt defaults, which indeed began in 1982 with Mexico. He subsequently has served as economic advisor to numerous governments, agencies and political parties from Latvia to Greece. He has argued for national protec­tionism and capital controls to resist free-trade imperialism, for domestic money creation to finance domestic spending on less inflationary terms than borrowing foreign currency, and for the need to tax and limit rentier gains in real estate and finance.

Academic and theoretical contributions

Michael has worked within academia on sustained intellectual inquiry. For many years he was on the economics faculty of the University of Mis­souri at Kansas City (UMKC), which became the center of MMT in the early 2000s with Randall Wray, Stephanie Kelton and Bill Black. He was Economic Research Director at the Riga Graduate School of Law (RGSL), where he became Chief of the Committee of Experts for the Renewal Task Force Latvia (rtfl.lv). As for his most well-known academic inquiry, that into the history of debt and money, he was appointed a research fellow in Babylonian economics at the Peabody Museum of Archeology and Eth­nology at Harvard University, where he organized a colloquium every few years from 1994 onward. The five volumes of conference colloquia that he has co-edited have rewritten the economic history of the ancient Near East and classical antiquity.

These colloquia were on privatization, land tenure and real estate own­ership (which were found to be based on fiscal liability), debt cancellation and economic renewal, the origins of money and accounting, and the or­igins of labor services (discovered to have arisen to work on public infra­structure and to work off personal debts). The findings of these colloquia and their members refute previous libertarian individualistic theorizing on economic origins, and have now become the new orthodoxy among Assyr­iologists, Egyptologists and anthropologists, most notably Michael’s friend David Graeber, who wrote his book Debt: The First Five Thousand Years, largely to popularize Michael’s approach. The essential focus of the colloquium volumes is on how money, inter­est-bearing debt and land tenure were innovated in the palaces and temples of the ancient Near East, and on how the privatization of money and credit led to the polarization in ownership of land and other wealth in the hands of private oligarchies from classical antiquity to today’s Western economies.

As one of the few economists who predicted the 2008 crash, Michael published one of his most important theoretical papers in 2006: “Saving, Asset-Price Inflation, and Debt-Induced Deflation.”1

1. In L. Randall Wray and Matthew Forstater, eds., Money, Financial Instability and Stabi­lization Policy (Cheltenham: 2006), pp. 104-24.It accurately explained how the exponential expansion of credit created corresponding debt that would lead to the impending financial crash and its aftermath. On Septem­ber 8, 2009, Dirk Bezemer wrote an article “Why some economists could see it coming” in the Financial Times, which stated that “Michael Hudson of the University of Missouri wrote in 2006 that ‘debt deflation will shrink the ‘real’ economy, drive down real wages, and push our debt-ridden economy into Japan-style stagnation or worse.’ Importantly, these and other analysts not only foresaw and timed the end of the credit boom, but also perceived this would inevitably produce recession in the US.” That article included the set of charts that helped make Michael famous for his explanation of why financial crises are endemic and lead to secular stagnation:

Today, with the world in deep financial crisis, Michael has reiterated his proposition that unpayable or odious debts should be cancelled, and indeed must be cancelled in order to avoid a global austerity crisis and economic polarization stemming from chronic debt deflation. One point of clarifica­tion here. The United States has become the world’s biggest debtor, mainly as a byproduct of the fact that most international debts are denominated in dollars. This poses a basic question: Which debts should be wiped out?

Michael urges that the debts of overindebted households and impover­ished countries in the Global South should be written down, but that one debt should not be cancelled: the official foreign debt of the U.S. Govern­ment. The United States has run up this official foreign debt—like its do­mestic Treasury debt—without expecting ever to actually pay it off. It has no intention of imposing on itself the austerity that it and the IMF demand of other debtor countries. This asymmetry, along with the U.S. sponsorship of today’s New Cold War, has led leading dollar-holding nations such as China and Russia to begin de-dollarizing their economies. This signals the fracturing of the world economy that Michael predicted in his 1977 Global Fracture. The United States is forcing other countries to choose between accepting a dollarized and militarized rentier austerity, or going their own way by creating mixed public/private growth-oriented economies.

For socialism

For us on the Global U team, it has been a great privilege and honor to be learning from Michael, face to face. He was invited to give lectures in Hong Kong and Macau in November 2019, during which he had a dialogue with Wen Tiejun on economic and financial issues in China. During the Seventh and Eighth South-South Forums on Sustainability in 2020 and 2021, he had further discussions with Wen Tiejun. Michael has a particular concern for China’s development, as he feels that China is the leading exception to the U.S.-based neoliberal economic model, not taking the destructive ad­vice of the IMF and World Bank. He has argued that China’s economy can be resilient if it organizes its real estate, debt and tax system to avoid the rentier financialization process that is destroying the West.

In September 2020, while we were chatting online, I sounded the idea that Michael give a lecture series for Global U. Michael accepted on the spot. I emailed him a proposal of 10 topics, and within five hours he came back with a detailed outline. The lectures were delivered weekly in Septem­ber-December 2020. Rewriting these lectures to create the current book took another few months.

I sometimes wonder whether Michael would have had second thoughts if he had known that his spontaneous acceptance of my request would take ten months of his time. But fortunately for readers, this became a blessed opportunity to access his central ideas and be guided to his dozen books. The videoed lectures, subtitled in Chinese and divided into 70 episodes, were screened in April-August 2021 in China. The first episode has been watched by over 188,000 viewers, with 30,000 viewers on average for the remaining episodes. The English-subtitled lectures are available on www.michael-hudson.com. What readers now hold in their hand, the book writ­ten on the basis of these lectures, presents Michael’s dissection of the burn­ing global issues of today, and his explanation of how the industrial capi­talism analyzed in the 19th century by Marx and other classical economists has turned into finance capitalism based on debt and rent extraction. This financialized system is polarizing the Western economies and threatening their collapse in a wave of foreclosures and new privatizations by a finan­cial oligarchy.

Most important are Michael’s proposed alternatives for de-dollarization and de-privatization to avoid global debt deflation and New Cold War im­perialism. Indeed, if civilization is to avoid the destiny of destruction, if humanity is to have a future, socialism is the only way—and that is what Michael has passionately argued in this book.

Lau Kin Chi

Director, Executive Team, Global University for Sustainability Coordina­tor, Programme on Cultures of Sustainability, Centre for Cultural

The Bubble and Beyond – fictitious capital, debt deflation and global crisis Michael Hudson (2012)

Payback – debt and the shadow side of wealth Margaret Atwood (2008)

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

The Global Minotaur

A blog with a good search facility is a fantastic resource - able to summon up a vaguely-remembered reference. A few days ago, I realized that I had forgotten the full significance of Nixon’s decision in 1971 to break the connection with gold which had been agreed in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference. I remembered that Yanis Varoufakis had written a powerful book about it in 2011 - The Global Minotaur -America, the true origins of the financial crisis and the future of the western economy – but it was inaccessible up in my mountain house. I googled….to discover that the entire book is now available to be downloaded (just click the title).

Varoufakis is a Greek economist – which offers two reasons for expecting a badly-written book….economists seem almost genetically incapable of expressing themselves clearly; and English is not his natural language. But the book is a joy to read – not least when he makes use of Greek mythology to illustrate a point. He clearly had good proof-readers….
I generally try to keep notes on key books – which are better written in hand than cut and pasted (our memory more easily retains what we take the trouble to write out in long-hand). But all too often I succumb to the temptation of cut and paste – as now from a very useful summary of the book 
The theme of the book is very well laid out in the introductory chapter. The author looks at six explanations which have been offered for the crisis but finds them useful but insufficient: (i) a failure to understand risk; (ii) regulatory capture; (iii) irrepressible greed; (iv) cultural origins (Anglo-Celtic  beliefs in flexible labour markets, etc.); (v) toxic theory (efficient markets hypothesis, rational expectations, etc.); (vi) systemic failure of capitalism, the role of the USA in financing its debts and deficits from the surpluses of Germany and Japan. 
Chapter 2, ‘Laboratories of the Future’, provides a brief historical account of the development of capitalism á la Marx, the role of crises, Goodwin’s predator prey model, and the role of finance in modern capitalism with the ability to create bubbles, and the end of the Gold Standard after the 1929 Great Crash.
 Chapter 3, ‘The Global Plan’, provides a historical account of the Marshall plan to save global capitalism, the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement, the ending of the US dollar’s convertibility to gold in 1971, and the ‘surplus recycling mechanism’: the absorption of surpluses created in Japan and Germany by the USA. Varoufakis argues that the European Union was a clever US plan to bring Europe into the US axis of economic influence. He ignores the view that the EU was meant as a third force: to stand against the USA (a view strongly held by Charles de Gaulle) and as a bulwark against communism. 
Chapter 4, ‘The Global Minotaur’, discusses the role of the USA in the global economy. The author argues that the major flaw in the Bretton Woods agreement (similar to a major flaw in the European Union) was that there was no automatic global surplus recycling mechanism. In the early post war years, the USA recycled its surplus dollars to Japan and Germany (especially) under the Marshall Plan. However, after the end of convertibility of the dollar to gold, the USA had increasing deficits financing wars in Vietnam and South East Asia. Varoufakis argues that the USA persuaded OPEC to raise oil prices (as they are denominated in US dollars) which would increase the demand for US dollars.
The rest of the world continued to finance the US deficits as the US dollar was still regarded as a reserve currency (although later the Europeans would have liked to make the Euro the reserve currency). The US economy was expanding, with stagnating real wages and increasing profitability that led to an inflow offoreign capital. The cheap loans that the USA made to Soviet satellites in the 1960s became a burden when interest rates soared under Volcker’s regime of high interest rates. This, Varoufakis suggests, led to discontent in the Soviet satellite states that eventually led to the demise of the Soviet Union. This is an interesting twist on the usual interpretation of history. In
Chapter 5, ‘The Beast’s Handmaidens’, Varoufakis argues that the Europeans, Irish, British, and Japanese were in awe of the American ‘great moderation’and happily followed US supply-side economic policies. Wall Street, is for Varoufakis, a ringleader of the handmaidens engaged in a roller coaster ride of mergers and take-overs. The development of various ‘clever’ derivatives (CDOs and CDSs), that were supposed to remove (reduce?) risk from financial markets, expanded at an almost exponential rate. This expansion helped the asset price bubble supported by ‘toxic theory’ that suggested that markets were efficient and bubbles did not exist. Free markets reigned supreme with the growth of Thatcherite and Reaganite governments.
Huge capital flows from Germany, Japan, and China fed the financial booms in Wall Street and supported the twin deficits. In 2005 Paul Volcker had foreseen the impossibility of a never ending increase in debts being funded by foreign capital flows: ‘The difficulty is that this seemingly comfortable pattern can’t go on forever’ (p. 145). Curiously, the author does not discuss the Asian Crisis of 1997 which was a fore-runner to the GFC. 
Chapter 6, ‘The Crash’, provides a blow by blow account of the early stages of the crisis in 2007, the collapse of Bear Stearns, problems faced by BNP Paribas, and the Swiss UBS. In December 2007, President Bush (a free marketeer par excellence) intervenes to save house owners from foreclosure and the Federal Reserve (the Fed) steps in providing (almost) unlimited credit to the financial system. By September 2008, Lehman Brothers collapses as the US government refuses to save it. This is often taken to be the start of the GFC. Several European banks and finance houses that held ‘toxic assets’ are in trouble and the whole western world is in a tailspin, with central banks suddenly doing an about-turn on monetary policy (usually by interest rate management) and no longer targeting inflation.
During the crisis, several banks (and car manufacturers) were nationalised but as things got better the banks were denationalised and back in the driving seats! ‘In short, socialism died during the Global Minotaur’s Golden Age, and capitalism was quietly bumped off the moment the beast ceased to rule over the world economy. In its place we have a new social system: bankruptocracy — rule by bankrupted banks … ’ (p. 167).
 The financial crisis spread all over the western world with declining GDP and increasing unemployment, and even the developing world found its growth rates slowing down. Tiny little Iceland went through a dramatic crash! European Union countries, especially Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain (PIIGS), have been experiencing a continuing recession with their banks and financial houses facing bankruptcy, and the existence of the Euro is under continuing threat. The UK disposed of its Labour Government and replaced it with a coalition of the Conservatives and Social Democrats, which imposed austerity measures that have led to a double dip recession. These economic crises have led to political crises, and that is still continuing.
Chapter 7, ‘The Handmaidens Strike Back’, turns to the methods employed by the USA and European Central Bank to attempt to rescue countries in crisis and the banking system. Varoufakis argues that the Geithner-Summers plan of 2009 of creating a simulated market for CDOs was essentially a method of helping the banks to convert toxic assets into ‘clean’ assets helped by the Fed and the Treasury. 
Chapter 8, ‘The Minotaur’s Global Legacy’, discusses the symbiotic relationship between Japan and the USA. The post-war growth of the Japanese economy was sponsored by the USA, Japanese exports were purchased by the USA, and in return the Japanese recycled their surpluses by investing in the USA. The Japanese boom came to an end with a collapse in the housing and asset price bubbles in the early nineteen-nineties, and it faced a liquidity trap situation. (It is interesting that the Japanese experience of loosening monetary policy for several years did not help the economy to come out of the recession. It apparently did not warn the IMF and other central bankers that simply loosening monetary policy would not cure the underlying problems of the global crisis.) The European Union provided Germany with an expanding market for its exports, leading to current account deficits in the other European countries. This was continued with the introduction  of a fixed exchange rate within the European Union by the introduction of the Euro (except for the few countries that refused to join, especially the UK).
The US financial crisis spread throughout Europe, but the policies introduced by the European Central Bank failed to stave off disaster for Greece, and now other countries. This, he argues, is because there was no ‘surplus recycling mechanism’ in the European Union with fixed exchange rates within the Euro countries: the large surpluses of Germany were not being recycled to the remaining members of the EU.
His solution to the EU crisis is based on three elements: first, the ECB would assist banks to write off the debts of deficit countries; secondly, the ECB would take on significant amounts of debt financed by Euro Bonds (not individual country bonds); thirdly, the European Investment Bank would invest in the deficit countries. The author does not discuss the necessity of a unified fiscal authority that acts as an equalising agent to help out the poorer states in the Union. The chapter ends with a brief discussion about whether China would be able to save the world by providing an expanding market. 
Chapter 9, ‘A Future without the Minotaur?’ argues that the crucial problem of the world economy is the absence of a ‘global surplus recycling mechanism’ (GRSM). For some time, the USA managed to have a surplus which it recycled to Japan and Germany (post-World War 2), then when it created large deficits with the wars in South East Asia, it left the gold standard and was being supported by the surpluses of Japan and Germany. But as a result of the crisis the US economy contracted and that affected the German, Japanese and Chinese economies. Can the Chinese economy take over the role of the Global Minotaur (the USA)? His argument is a loud, NO! He favours Keynes’s policy prescription in the 1940s of an International Clearing House with its own currency, the Bancor.

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