The Future isn't what it used to be!

When I had a high profile – as a change agent in Europe’s largest Region in the 1970s and 1980s – I would quite often receive invitations to join discussion/advisory groups or write articles for journals (generally one led to the other). One of the first came from the Tavistock Institute and was to join the Advisory Group for a 3 year project about Networks in which my Region was taking part in the late 1970s.

John Friend was the key player in the Institute of Operational Research which ran the project but Eric Trist and Fred Emery were big names associated with the systems thinking which lay behind the work. The planning theorist Andreas Faludi nicely situates here John Friend’s contribution to the planning field. An article I contributed to the Newsletter they ran gives a very good sense of the wider context in which the work was taking place - “Local government, learning and social change” (Linkage newsletter 3 of Institute of Operational Research (IOR) 1978)

Involvement with the Institute gave me a chance to look at my work using a different perspective or lens. Wherever we are, we tend to get too used to our routines – and it helps to be jolted out of that and get the chance to see things though different eyes…..(hence the title the blog has carried this past year or so)

In the 1980s, the invitations came increasingly from Europe and were focused on the processes and lessons of urban change. It was through a network with the acronym R.O.M.E that I met the indefatigable Riccardo Petrella who became a great campaigner against globalisation and for the importance of public water provision

My role as an institutional development consultant from 1991 brought a reduced public profile – although the European Centre for Development Policy Management did invite me for discussions about my local government work in Kyrgyzstan - when I was wrestling with the concept of capacity development about which, with the support of people like Pete Morgan, they did a lot of work. Here’s a typical example

The most recent invitation is from the International Futures Forum – based in Scotland whose mission statement reads simply 

to enable people and organisations to flourish in powerful times. We address complex, messy, seemingly intractable issues – local, global and all levels in between – fostering practical hope and wise initiative. 

We support people making a difference in the face of all that stands in the way of making a difference, rising to the challenge of the moment.  We develop their 21st century competencies for thriving in complexity and their capacity for inspiring and transformative innovation.  We offer resources to support this activity through the IFF Practice Centre.  We work with governments, communities, businesses, foundations and individuals.  

We offer people a space for reflection, thoughtful engagement and mutual support and we freely share the powerful ideas, tools and frameworks that result. 

I am apparently one of some 50 ex-pats who are being invited in a couple of weeks to take part in a zoom session to explore how we might become more involved. I like the idea and could access some of the material which is available in their IFF Practice Centre.

But I prefer a slightly more independent approach and have therefore identified some books which I will try to flick through in preparation…

I start in 1971 with the full edition of one of Futurology’s greats – Wendell Bell whose contribution to the field is superbly described in the first half of an article by Barbara Adam, the author of a 2007 study which figures in the list of about a dozen books

Title	Author’s background	Comment
The Sociology of the Future – theory, cases and annotated bibliography; ed Wendell Bell and James Mau (1971),	One of America’s foremost futurologists	The book was a real challenge to the prevailing quietism of Talcott Parsons’ sociology
Futures we are in Fred Emery (1977)	Renowned Australian organisational thinker – with background in psychology	But rather elitist and technocratic style
New Thinking for a new Millennium – the knowledge base for future studies; Richard Slaughter (1996)	a well-known Australian futurist.	Superbly written
Foundations of Future Studies; Wendell Bell (1997)	See above	The editions of 2004 and 2007 carry great overviews of work since
Future Matters – action, knowledge, ethics; B Adam and C Grove (2007).	British sociologists	a clear and thorough analysis
Foresight – the art and science of anticipating the future; Dennis Loveridge (2008)	A british analytical chemist with strong working experience in industry who took up an academic post on future studies in 1991	Has the style and insights one would expect from someone with his background
What is the Future? John Urry (2016) only in epub format.	Urry was a great British sociologist	Comprehensive treatment strong on bib references
Superforecasting ; P Tetlock and D Gardner (2016)	Paul Tetlock is an American economics Prof who focuses on finance and statistics	And has a reputation for scepticism about forecasting
Future Studies and Counterfactual Analyses – seeds of the Future; T Gordon and M Todorova (2019)	futurologists – the older an American with a scientific background, the younger a Bulgarian with a cultural studies background
Critical Terms in Future Studies; ed Paul Heike (2019)	An interesting collection of 50 international academics whose subjects are generally in the humanities
From What Is to What If – unleashing the power of imagination to create the world we want Rob Hopkins (2019) only in epub format.	Climate change campaigner	This is, admittedly, Rob’s latest contribution to his “Transition Towns” series and therefore not quite an example of future studies
Uncharted – how to map the future together ; Margaret Heffernan (2020) epub	Serial entrepreneur American-born but currently living in UK	A curious book – strong on stories – generally sceptical but strong on scenario planning

The pandemic, we are told, is one of these critical junctures which shake the world from time to time and can move it in surprising directions….After the global financial crash of 2007 a lot of people’s predictions about government roles strengthening were proven false. The power of Big Capital increased – as did inequality. It took the populist revolt to begin to bring western liberalism to its senses.

The Covid pandemic has demonstrated new possibilities for government that people will not forget in a hurry - but has equally consolidated the power of the global AI and IT monopolies and intensified our fears of a future without work.

Futurists should therefore be at a premium these days….       

Postscript; interesting that, within days of this post, I was invited by the Centre for Public Impact to complete a questionnaire about ways of improving government which focused on the sort of information I got from internet platforms.

I had to respond quite strongly that it is only books which help me understand realistic ways for improving government – particularly those written by people such as Gerald Caiden, Chris Hood, B Guy Peters, Eduardo Ongaro and Alasdair Roberts.

But the website is an interesting one – and pursuing a very worthwhile objective