what you get here

This is not a blog which opines on current events. It rather uses incidents, books (old and new), links and papers to muse about our social endeavours.
So old posts are as good as new! And lots of useful links!

The Bucegi mountains - the range I see from the front balcony of my mountain house - are almost 120 kms from Bucharest and cannot normally be seen from the capital but some extraordinary weather conditions allowed this pic to be taken from the top of the Intercontinental Hotel in late Feb 2020

Sunday, October 13, 2024

GROUPTHINK

 The last decade has seen a new interest in a phenomenon which was last heard of some 50 years ago – with a short article by Irving Janis in 1971 paving the way for a full length book Victims of Groupthink (1972) which looked at such escapades as the Bay of Pigs to explore how leadership groups come to a consensus which labels any dissenter as a hostile voice.

Janis refined his analysis in 1991 with an analysis of the Challenger disaster 
And this was taken up in 1997 by Beyond Groupthink – political group dynamics 
and foreign policy-making (t’Hart et al)

Janis studied a number of historical fiascoes in American foreign policy, notably the lack of preparedness for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (1941), the escalation of the war in Korea (1950), the failed U.S.-sponsored landing of anti-Castro rebels in the Bay of Pigs (1961), and the escalation of U.S. involvement in the war in Vietnam under President Johnson (1964–68). Each of these episodes went badly: the policymakers did not achieve their major goals, massive violence and many casualties resulted, and the government suffered a serious loss of domestic and international prestige.

Based on his detailed investigation of these episodes, Janis suggested that in each of them, the major decisions that shaped the course of events were reached after insufficient and unsystematic thinking and discussion. To bring this out more clearly, he contrasted them with two cases of policy success where policies had been developed in a more rigorous process (the making of the 1947 Marshall plan and the 1962 Cuban missile crisis). Specifically, Janis argued that in each of the failure cases, the decision-making process had been distorted by what he called groupthink: a tendency toward premature and extreme concurrence-seeking within a cohesive policy-making group under stress.

But it’s the last decade which has seen a development of the concept – with 
some 4 key publications, starting with The Silo Effect Gillian Tett (2015) 
who can be seen in this presentation, initially about the global financial crisis. 

Mastering silos is a constant battle, because the world around us is

constantly changing, pulling us in two directions. We need specialist, expert

teams to function in a complex world. But we also need to have a joined-up,

flexible vision of life. Mastering silos requires us to walk a narrow line

between these two contradictory goals. It is hard.

So how do we deal with this challenge? One place to start is to recognize

that silos exist and to think clearly about their effects. And I believe that a discipline that can help us to frame the analysis and debate is anthropology. This is not a field that normally springs to mind when people think about silos. On the contrary, when people have written about silos, they have usually done so by drawing on two bodies of research: management consultants, who offer advice on how institutions can organize themselves better; or psychologists, who study how our minds work. However, silos are fundamentally a cultural phenomenon. ey arise because social groups and organizations have particular conventions about how to classify the world.

Sometimes these classification systems are explicitly defined. New York’s

City Hall has official, formal structures that stipulate how each department

and team is organized and sits in relation to each other, in a hierarchy.

However, the conventions that we use to classify the world are often not

officially defined or spelled out. Instead, they arise out of a dense set of rules, traditions, and conventions that we have absorbed from our surroundings, often in an unthinking way. Many of the really important patterns we use to classify the world, in other words, are inherited from our culture. ey exist at the borders of conscious thought and instinct. ey seem natural to us, in the same way our culture appears “normal.” So much so, that we rarely even notice them at all, or even think about the fact that we have formal and informal classification systems that shape how we respond to the world.

But it was the US/UK Iraq War which brought home to most people the dangers 
of Groupthink – with an Independent Commission asked by Gordon Brown in 2009 
to explore the lessons of the disaster, Lord Chilcot  produced no less than 12 volumes
 of some 3,200 pages, reporting in 2016. This is its Executive Summary – at 
150 pages.  Learning from the Chilcot Report Piers Robinson (2017) is a good 
detailed analysis of the report.
Hardly surprisingly, the UK Ministry of Defence – one of the perpetrators of 
the disaster, was keen to learn lessons and duly produced in 2017 
The Good Operation 

Rebel Ideas – the power of diverse thinking Matthew Syd (2019) makes an important point

We need to think of human performance not from the standpoint of the individual but from the standpoint of the group. From this more rounded perspective, we’ll see that diversity is the critical ingredient driving what we might term collective intelligence.

There are, of course, many types of diversity. Differences in gender, race, age and religion are sometimes classified under the heading ‘demographic diversity’ (or ‘identity diversity’). We will be focusing not upon demographic diversity, but cognitive diversity. That’s to say, differences in perspective, insights, experiences and thinking styles.

There is often (but not always) an overlap between these two concepts. People from different backgrounds, with different experiences, often think about problems in different ways. We will analyse the precise relationship later in the book.

Cognitive diversity was not so important a few hundred years ago, because the problems we faced tended to be linear, or simple, or separable, or all three. A physicist who can accurately predict the position of the moon doesn’t need a different opinion to help her do her job. She is already bang on the money. Any other opinion is false. This goes back to our common-sense intuition. Thinking differently is a distraction. With complex problems, however, this logic flips. Groups that contain diverse views have a huge, often decisive, advantage.


The final book worth mentioning is Groupthink – a study in self-delusion by 
Chris Booker (2020) which is a  bit of a right-wing knockabout.

Monday, October 7, 2024

An Update on Climate Change

The BLOGGER people are making such a mess of my posts that I've decided to experiment with a pdf version of this post. Just click!

https://u.pcloud.link/publink/show?code=XZVng30Z1xsqE4KBGR79cWwhlB4GlY9JRo6y






The first 2 books in the undernoted list came to my attention yesterday and made me realise that 5 years have elapsed since I offered my first ‘’RESOURCE’’ on climate changeso here’s an update

in human omnipotence and the accompaning hubris
an early and powerful attack on the damage we’re doing to the planet
(1989). McKibben was one of the early environmental writers – and this is his classic book
Elinor Ostrom (1990). Ostrom earned the Nobel prize for her work
and writer. Still worth reading almost 30 years on for the breadth of its references
from an entrepreneur and writer passionately committed to alternative energy
James Lovelock (2006). One of our most famous scientists (just turned 100) who coined 
the Gaia concept
Six Degrees – our future on a hotter planet”; Mark Lynas (2007) A detailed 
examination by an environmental journalist of what happens when the planet heats up
Blessed Unrest - how the largest social movement in history is restoring grace, 
justice and beauty to the world; Paul Hawken (2007); Beautifully-written history of 
the environmental movement, with particular emphasis on the contemporary aspects. 
Very detailed annex.
our last chance to save humanity”; James Hansen (2009). A powerful story of how one scientist has tried to warn usMike Hulme (2009). An environmental scientist Professor takes a rare and deep look into our cultural disagreements – using anthropological insights
(2010) . 
the Canadian journalist is written for those who are already convinced about the need for urgent action.
Dieter Helm (2012). This by an economist – and the subtitle is the giveaway
ed Paul Hawken (2017). The title may be a bit over the top but the scale of research undertaken for a superbly-designed book was impressiveClub of Rome (2018). This is the definitive text for anyone who wants an up-to-date 
overview of the point we’ve reached. These are the people who first alerted us in 1972 
and were pilloried mercilessly by the corporate elites for their audacity. The report 
probably falls into the category of “not give up hope completely” and the technical options 
described in detail in the last part of the book do give the impression that things might still be fixed….But the politics suggests otherwiseto persuade the ordinary citizen of the need to take this issue more seriously – and therefore without the copious referencing of an academic book.This highly readable book from a journalist who has compressed his extensive reading into a series of short, very punchy chapters can be accessed by clicking the title.
An excellent short book which critically appraises the arguments used by the activists
strategist Anatol Lieven 
(2020) which is one of the very few books I’ve seen which takes the crisis as read - 
and chooses instead to use our own reluctance to change our habits as the key with 
which to explore the values and worldviews lying at the heart of the different sense of identity we all have. In the absence of a link to the book itself, I offer this videohas been writing about our overreliance on fossil fuels for a couple of decades - 
but I find his book a bit too glib - see the video

and this is a quite excellent little article on why we have chosen to ignore the climate crisis

E Pereira (Club of Rome 2022) A review of the lessons from the 1972 “Limits to Growth”

Wednesday, October 2, 2024

The Party Machine

I started with the intention of subjecting the labour party machine to a ruthless (academic) analysis, using Peter Mair’s Ruling the Void (2013) as a lever which might offer insights into the sorry state of the Labour Party. But, as usual, I got distracted first by Tom Nairn’s expose on The Nature of the Labour Party in 2 editions of New Left Review in 1964, then by Enzo Traverso’s Revolution – an intellectual history (2021) which took me to Leon Trotsky and to GDH Cole’s monumental study of the History of Socialism, running to 7 volumes. 

I had started the early draft of the post by arguing that political parties are 
a more or less successful device to:
    • recruit political leadership

    • represent community grievances, demands etc.

    • implement party programmes - which may or may not be consistent with those community demands.

    • extend public insight - by both media coverage of inter-party conflict and intraparty dialogue - into the nature of governmental decision-making (this is the theory – the reality is that most of the MSM titilate citizens with gossip, with social media….)

    • protect decision-makers from the temptations and uncertainties of decisionmaking – being able to offer the excuse of the party whip to head off criticisms.

These days, however, elected officials probably perform only the first two of 
these roles which perhaps accounts for the public cynicism which Peter Mair 
explored in this 2006 article in NLR developed, with Mair’s seminal Ruling the 
Void book appearing posthumously in 2013. The two British parties are torn 
by profound internal divisions with the right-wing elements in both having so 
far won out. I have argued elsewhere that our society is hardly what one would 
call a participatory democracy. The term that is used - "representative" 
democracy – recognises that "the people" do not take political decisions 
but have rather surrender that power to one (or several) small elites - 
subject to infrequent checks  Such checks are, of course, a rather 
weak base on which to rest claims for democracy and more emphasis 
is therefore given to the freedom of expression and organisation 
whereby pressure groups articulate a variety of interests. Those who 
defend the consequent operation of the political process argue that 
we have, in effect a political market place in which valid or strongly 
supported ideas survive and are absorbed into new policies. 
They further argue that every viewpoint or interest has a more or 
less equal chance of finding expression and recognition. This 
is the political theory of pluralism.
A key question is: How does government hear and act upon the signals 
from below? How do "problems" get on the political "agenda"? The 
assumption of our society, good "liberals" that most of us essentially 
are, is that
  • the channels relating governors to governed are neutral and
  • the opportunity to articulate grievances and have these defined (if they are significant enough) as "problems" requiring action from authority is evenly distributed throughout society.
The inescapable reality is that the UK, European and US media 
are owned by plutocrats who impose their right-wing agendas on 
the public . Peter Oborne is an interesting journalist who, 
from an original right-wing background, now exposes in this 
short video the client-journalism of the MSM
Two years ago almost to the day, Al-Zeera showed The Labour Filesa 2 
part series, each lasting an hour and a half. This exposed the activities of 
the right-wingers in the Labour Party who had used the anti-semitic trope 
on – of all people – Jeremy Corbyn. They may have succeeded in their aim to 
remove him from the Labour Party but have done irreperable damage to the 
party in the process.  
Most people have probably forgotten the Forde Report which was asked by 
the party to investigate the chaos of these claims and counterclaims. 
I don’t consider The Guardian any more a fair reporter of these events 
(given its bias to Zionism) but this is how it covered the report. A more 
objective analysis is probably this one 

There are rumours that the Labour peer Lord Ali funded the plot to overthrow 
Corbyn. If you’re wondering why our politicians are so corrupt it’s because the ones 
who aren’t corrupt are removed from politics. This is how we end up with 
bastards who will do things like genocide if it’s better for them personally.