This
is probably the only blog written by a Scot which is still neutral about the
issue of independence – the subject of a referendum on 18 September. It’s neutral for three basic
reasons –
· I’ve
been out of the country (Scotland and the UK) for 24 years – almost as long as
I was politically active within Scotland and don't therefore find myself thinking about Scotland's future very often
· I
come late to the discussion
· I
am a natural sceptic – particularly of prevailing consensus (and most Scottish
scribblers seem to be separatists)
So
far this series of blogposts has made the following points –
· A
significant amount of power was transferred to the Scottish Parliament and
Government in 1999
· More
will transfer when the 2012 Scotland Act is implemented
· The
Scottish government has still to use its existing tax-raising powers – let alone
the additional ones contained in the 2012 Act
· The
Scottish Parliament and its people can be proud of the way the new
policy-making capacity has been handled. Distinctive policies have been
developed – and the respect of its citizens earned.
· It
has still to build on some of that innovative work – eg in the fields of
community ownership of rural land; and of renewable energy
· The
post -2007 “Nationalist” government is hardly nationalist – it stresses the
importance of remaining within five of the six Unions with which it has suggested Scotland is currently associated.
· and,
ideologically, it seems more social democratic than anything (although its
absence of a tax base means that it has not really been tested on this count)
· the
uncertainties and risks associated with negotiations with the UK, the EU and
other bodies are generally ridiculed by the yes campaign.
· The
Scottish and UK media do not support the idea of independence but journalists
generally have given an increasingly sympathetic treatment to the yes campaign
and have ridiculed the No campaign
· It
is indeed now difficult for anyone with a different view to be taken seriously
· The
betting is now that the vote will be for separation
As
someone who has been a social democrat all my life and not well disposed to the
business class, the following piece in today’s inimitable Scottish Review about wealth creation seems a really important contribution to the debate -
As
a Scot with almost no sense of being 'British', the Yes campaigners should have
little problem convincing me to side with them. In fact, over the past year, I
have become even less enthusiastic about the idea of an independent Scotland –
as it is being proposed........If we want to a glimpse into the future, we need to look not just at what is
set out in the white paper but at what the SNP has done as the Scottish
Government in the past seven years.Two
specific objections have become clear in the past year's campaigning; first,
the enormity of unravelling a 300-year-long administrative union. Second, the
uncertainty over which currency an independent Scotland would use. Greece has
shown how the wrong currency can destroy an economy and then a society.
More
generally, Alex Salmond has championed independence to create a fairer, social
democratic Scotland. This tells us little. Who promises a less fair Scotland?
Social democratic has become shorthand for the society that politicians and
commentators – the distinction between the two has almost evaporated – would
like to create. Sometimes 'progressive' is used in the same way.
Significantly,
there has never been a social democratic party in Scotland. Across Western
Europe such parties are common. There, it is understood to involve a productive
economy underpinning a welfare state. The first part has rarely concerned
Scottish politicians. In fact, too many Scots have an instinctive aversion to
wealth creation, even as they enjoy its fruits and promise the rest of us we
too will share them.The
SNP would deny it, but its track record on wealth creating is on a mediocre par
with the Labour Party.
There is no firmly rooted understanding that a
successful capitalist economy is necessary for the future prosperity of
Scotland. In social democratic Sweden or in Germany it is taken for granted.
Lacking
a coherent view of wealth creation the SNP – like Labour – fell into
enthusiastic support for prosperity based on financial services. There was no
ideological basis for this. It was merely that, for a number of years, roughly
1992-2008, this sector seemed capable of producing the profits – and tax
revenue – needed for higher public spending. It also created a large number of
clean, comfortable jobs for people sitting at computers at a time when the
alternative was low-paid work in in cleaning, catering and caring. While
it pays lip service to the idea of a high skill-high wage economy, the reality
has been a continuation of hand to mouth policies that date back to the 1950s.Tax-dodging
Amazon is lured here because it can provide jobs. That these are low-skill
jobs, even in comparison with those provided by multinationals in the post-war
era, is secondary. Where previously, NCR and Caterpillar brought skilled manufacturing
jobs, now Murdoch's Sky brings call centre employment.
The
promise of low corporation tax is clear evidence that this policy is intended
to be a core feature of the economy of an independent Scotland. (The irony is
that Ireland has already cornered this niche market as a small, English
speaking outpost of the European continent. Hi-tech companies choose Ireland.
Amazon chooses Scotland for its giant warehouse.) When
it comes to fostering an equal society, the record of the SNP is similarly poor,
even as Alex Salmond laments the fact that Scotland is the fourth most unequal
country in the world.
In the early 2000s, there was such a huge increase in
public spending that Steven Purcell, when running Glasgow Council, could talk
of councils 'awash with money'.This
spending made little impact of the endemic social problems of urban Scotland.
New entitlements were added to old ones. In almost every case, the already
prosperous gained most. 'Free' university tuition gives more to prosperous East
Dumbartonshire than to Glasgow where a far small percentage of pupils achieves
university entrance qualification – although pupils in both areas attend
comprehensive schools. (In fact, schools in deprived areas are encouraged to
adopt a non-academic curriculum; de facto junior secondaries.) The
area where the disparity between Scotland as 'progressive beacon' and the less
attractive reality stands out most clearly is in tax revenue raised from oil
and gas. This money, £10 billion in 2011-12, is at present shared between some
60 million Britons. Post-independence, it would be shared between 5.3 million
Scots. This is not my idea of social democracy; it is closer to its antithesis. Professor
Paul Collier raised this point in the Herald and, sadly but predictably, he was
denounced online.
The painting is one of the Stanley Spencer series of Port Glasgow shipbuilding during the war years.