British PM threatens to defy the Law?

After two posts on “Life and Death” issues, it pains me greatly to find myself returning to UK politics and Brexit. And I do so only to help answer the questions of my non-UK readers who form the bulk of this blog’ readership.

Yesterday saw the House of Lords confirm the earlier House of Commons vote which seems to make a “No Deal” exit from the EU illegal. Logically this would require the Prime Minister to seek from the EU an extension to the deadline of 31 October. He has, however, apparently indicated that he will not seek such an extension – thereby putting himself as PM in the remarkable position of being in contempt of the law
And the Commons also denied Johnson’s attempt to force a General election - with opposition leaders confirming they would vote down the further attempt he is rumoured to be seeking on Monday. It is, after all, their last day before he (with the Queen's gracious permission) "suspends" them (for 6 weeks). The mind boggles!

I thought the flowchart in this recent article was complicated – until I saw the various options presented by this specialist in EU politics.

The BBC flowchart seems to be simpler - although I don’t quite understand their comment that a simple motion with a specific date for an election would require only a simple majority since that is surely ruled out by the “Fixed Term Parliament Act” of 2011 (which requires a 2/3 majority)

But it was public admin academic Colin Talbot who put the issue most pithily in this blogpost

What if the Government tables a motion for a General Election under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act?

This requires a two-thirds majority of all MPs – whether present and voting or not. That’s 434 MPs. They have already tried it once and failed. It’s unlikely to succeed when they try again on Monday. After that Parliament is going to be Prorogued (suspended) so it will be impossible before it resumes in Oct.

What if the Government brings forward a one-line Bill to suspend the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and call a General Election?

The Government could do this and try and fix a date that meant the GE could not stop Brexit happening on 31 Oct. They would need a majority, which they don’t have. It would be open to amendment, which could negate what they are trying to do.

What if the House of Commons passes a vote of No Confidence, in the terms stipulated by the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, next week?

This, quite uniquely, would require the Government to move such a motion itself and puts the Opposition Parties in a dreadful quandary -  difficult to vote against it (and thus vote confidence in the Government), so it would pass. It only requires a simple majority.

This would trigger the 14-day period during which a General Election can only be averted by passing a motion of confidence in HM Government (who ever that might be by then).

Except Parliament would be suspended because it will be Prorogued. There would be no House of Commons to pass such a resolution. The clock would tick down and a General Election would be triggered after 14 days, probably after 1stOct. The PM can then fix that election for a date that means the UK will crash out of the EU on 31 Oct. There would appear to be nothing Parliament could do to stop it.

BUT, to do this the Government would have to pull this stunt whilst Parliament is still (just) sitting. If they did the reaction would likely be explosive. We could well see unprecedented moves to overturn Prorogation by the House of Commons appealing directly to the Queen? This would obviously create a huge constitutional crisis. Or Parliament could try and pass a Bill suspending the FTPA?

Of course, if the Government were voting No Confidence in themselves to try to force a General Election through this highly dubious route, it might not be seen as so bizarre for the Opposition to vote the other way? In these strange times, who knows?

What if The Prime Minister extends Prorogation?

It is perfectly possible for Boris Johnson to go back to the Palace and ask Her Majesty to extend Prorogation so Parliament does not re-assemble, and he cannot be challenged.

If he did something so blatant there could be push-back from the Palace, through the Courts, and even by the House of Commons doing something unheard of like re-assembling itself.

                     

A Scottish and English court have both upheld the Prime Minister’s right to suspend Parliament for 5 weeks but appeals will be heard in the Country’s Supreme Court in what is expected to be a 3 day hearing on 17 September. But in the meantime Parliament is muzzled and shackled…..so is the state of the UK this day of the Lord 7 September 2019

The irresistible rise of the "Wrinklies"

“Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully” Samuel Johnson

There certainly seems to be an added edge to the prose of writers who, whether for scientific or personal reasons, turn their attention to old age and the prospect of one's life ending.

I last blogged on the subject all of three years ago and a recent conversation with one of my daughters has moved me to have another look at the dozen or so books on this topic on my bookshelves – and to track down a few for inclusion in the virtual library. So the core of this post is actually an analysis of the 20 or so books I know on the subject – inspired also, I suspect, by my reading last week of the very poetic “My Father’s Wake”

Given the rise in both numbers and purchasing power of the “Wrinklies”, it is perhaps surprising that we have not attracted more innovation (if that’s not a contradiction in terms) – in fields such as housing, euthanasia and burial, let alone politics….

We do need to give more thought to how we will leave this life - but we fail to do so….both as individuals and collectively…Perhaps the title I’ve been using for one unfinished set of collected thoughts – “Dispatches to the Next Generation” – is one small gesture in that direction. Of course its focus on the mess we in the older generation have made of the world makes for a completely different sort of book than those analysed below. The hyperlinks generally give useful reviews - and sometimes the book itself...

Books about Ageing and the approach of Death

Title	Year	Genre	Comment	Links
The American Way of Death; Jessica Mitford	1963	journalism	Analysis of the crematorium business	Her updated version of 1996 can be read in full here
On Death and Dying; Elizabeth Kuebler-Ross click to get the entire book	1969	psychology	The book that gave us the “five stages of grief”	This extended interview with the author is quite superb
The Coming of Age; Simone de Beauvoir	1970 French version	Breaks all disciplinary barriers!	The classic	Excerpts available on this Amazon version
The Denial of Death; Ernest Becker	1973	Cultural anthropology	A “psycho-philosophical synthesis” – all 330 pages	Hyperlink on title gives full book
The Loneliness of The Dying by Norbert Elias	1985	sociology	A short rather general book by an underrated Anglo-German	Note on his life and work. Click title for full book
The End of Age – BBC Reith Lectures by Tom Kirkwood	2001	Gerontology	Link on the title gives podcasts	Recent book review by Tom Kirkwood
Ammonites and Leaping Fish – a Life in Time Penelope Lively	2003	Memoir	Interview here	First chapter can be read in summary form here
Nothing to be Frightened Of; Julian Barnes	2007	Extended essay	Good on references	A rather gentle way into the subject nicely reviewed here
Somewhere Towards the End; Diana Athill	2008	Memoir	Marvellous writer covers latter stages of a long life	Click the title for the entire book
The Long Life; Helen Small	2007	Literary	Written by a Professor of English language and literature	Compendium of writing about ageing over 2000 years. A good review here
You’re Looking very well – the surprising nature of getting old; Lewis Wolpert	2011	Popular science	Professor of Biology Age 80 when he wrote it Good interviews here and here	got stick from this reviewer for having too many facts and quotations and insufficient analysis
“Immortality: the Quest to Live For Ever and How It Drives Civilisation” Stephen Cave	2012	philosophy	Philosopher who knows how to tell a great tale	Click on title for full book good review here
Out of Time – the Pleasures and Perils of Ageing; Lynne Segal	2013	sociology	Almost an update of de Beauvoir!	Good review here
Being Mortal – illness, medicine and what matters in the end; by Atul Gawande	2015	Reflective medical	a very literate and humane American surgeon,	See comments in Intimations of Mortality and Facing up to our Mortality
Growing Old – the last Campaign; Des Wilson	2014	Humour	was the most famous British campaigner of the second half of the century.
The Black Mirror: Fragments of an Obituary for Life; Raymond Tallis	2015	philosophy	retired British gerontologist, poet and polymath	See this Spiked Online review
The Worm at the Core: on the Role of Death in Life; by S Solomon, J Greenberg and T Pyszczynski	2015	psychology	American psychologists update and popularise Becker’s thesis about our repression of death	see this interview British philosopher John Gray reviewed
“Smoke Gets in Your Eyes: and Other Lessons from the Crematorium” Caitlin Doughty	2015	journalism		Review here
My Father’s Wake – how the Irish Teach us to Live, Love and Die; Kevin Toolis	2017	journalism	Poetic but doesn’t deal with issues
With the end in mind – dying, death and wisdom in an age of denial; K Mannix	2017	medical	A “palliative” doctor profiles in depth her patients	A review here
The Way we Die Now; Seamus O’Mahony	2017	medical	A Consultant “Gastroenterologist”

Every Third Death – life, death and the endgame; Robert McCrum

2017

Literary journalist

An extended essay – with a nice little bibliography

Peter Drucker's "Deadly Sins in public administration"

Management books sell like hot cakes – their stacked titles at airport and High street bookshops appealing to your inner cowboy spirit beating off the enemy to achieve success and admiration.

“Management of change” used to be particularly popular – with the various steps for undermining resistance and achieving catalysing coalitions identified with exclamation marks. I should know because this Annotated Bibliography for change agents has been part of my In Transit – notes on good governance since 1999

But managing change in the public sector is another matter….it just doesn’t seem to be sexy…But why is this? There are actually more management positions in the public sector than in the private – whether as Directors or policy makers on both the political and official sides of what is a dual system. So that translates into more potential readers if not buyers than in a tightly hierarchical private company where the focus is so often the boss. Are publishers that myopic or stupid?

Or do we snap up the management book in an imaginative flight of fantasy – to create a magic world in which we are the respected leader and people jump to our wisdom??

The real reason for the paucity of books on reform of public services in the bookshops, I suspect, is caught by what the man who invented modern management said in 1980 about “the deadly sins in public administration”. That was Peter Drucker and the sins were –

• giving lofty (unspecified) objectives without clear targets which could be measured, appraised and judged

• doing several things at once without establishing, and sticking to, priorities

• believing that "fat is beautiful" ie that abundance not competence gets things done

• being dogmatic, not experimental

• failing to learn from experience

• assuming immortality and being unwilling to abandon pointless programmes

Some people read management books to help them become better managers but I suspect that those are a small minority and that the main reason these books fly off the shelves is for the good feeling of vicarious success they give their readers. It’s like a detective story – everyone likes to see the mystery explained…

Whereas books on public management reform simply bore on about the problems…..and publishers are not stupid – they know that the public prefers more uplifting stuff. And that’s surely why Reinventing Government was, in 1992, the first (and still only) best-seller of that genre. Like “In Search of Excellence” of a decade earlier, it gave us a winning formula

And I suspect that’s why Penguin publishers were willing to take a risk in 2015 and publish no fewer than two books on public management reform - Michael Barber’s How to Run a Government so that Citizens Benefit and Taxpayers don’t go Crazy (2015); and  The Fourth Revolution – the global race to reinvent the state; by John Micklethwait and Adrian Woolridge (2015). Both books tell a largely positive story of the promise of reform…Barber was Tony Blair’s “Head of Delivery” in the British Cabinet but has now reinvented himself as a "Deliverology" Guru.

“The Fourth Revolution – the global race to reinvent the state”

Micklethwait and Woolridge are managing editors of “The Economist” weekly and, given my hostility to the “smart” simplistic commentary of that journal, I have resisted buying the book for the past 4 years… But, on the basis that it's better to know your enemy, I relented last week and have now read their “Fourth Revolution” which they helpfully summarised on the ultra-neoliberal Cato Institute website

I could have saved myself the trouble because the Peter Drucker quote above conveys the negative part of their message so much better.

But let me remain true to the fair soul that lies within me – for this is a rare popular book and should be treated with respect - and rehearse their argument…

The book’s Introduction starts promisingly with a tour of the China Executive Leadership Academy in Shanghai and mentions the Central Party School in Beijing which I remember visiting….But before we reach the present, we are treated in the next hundred pages to an explanation of the three (or 3 ½) previous revolutions - embodied in the names of Hobbes (of Leviathan fame); Locke and JS Mill; and the Webbs. Hobbes legitimized the State as force; the second stage

began with the American and French revolutions and eventually spread across Europe, as liberal reformers replaced regal patronage systems — “Old Corruption,” as it was known in England — with more meritocratic and accountable government.

English liberals took a decrepit old system and reformed it from within by stressing efficiency and freedom. They “stole” China’s idea of a professional civil service selected by exam, attacked cronyism, opened up markets, and restricted the state’s rights to subvert liberty. The “night-watchman state,” advanced by the likes of John Stuart Mill, was both smaller and more competent.

Even though the size of the British population rose by nearly 50 percent from 1816 to 1846 and the Victorians improved plenty of services (including setting up the first modern police force), the state’s tax revenues fell from £80 million to £60 million. And later reformers like William Gladstone kept on looking for ways to “save candle-ends and cheese-parings in the cause of the country.”

The Fabian Webbs gave us the Third revolution - providing the theoretical grounding for the British welfare state...even if Bismarck's Germany beat them to it. 

Then follows a short chapter entitled “Milton Friedman’s Paradise Lost” whose message is –

during the 1980s, when Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, inspired by classical liberal thinkers like Milton Friedman, temporarily halted the expansion of the state and privatized the commanding heights of the economy. We dub this a half revolution because, although it harked back to some of the founding ideas of the second “liberal” revolution, it failed in the end to do anything to reverse the size of the state.

The next 60 pages look at the lessons we should take from California, Singapore and China.

The American lessons are negative – ironically summarised as “seven deadly sins” – and relate to union power. Given all the hype from Al Gore’s programme from 1993 of Reinventing Government, you would have expected some mention – let alone exploration - of this experience, not least for the veiled reference in the sub-title. But not a single one! And no mention either of Osborne and Graeber’s 1992 best-seller of the same name. On the other hand, when it comes to Singapore and China you can sense the relish and admiration – and also in the chapter about the transformation of the state in Nordic countries;

Finally 30 pages on “Fixing Leviathan” – basically through “outsourcing”, decentralisatiom and experimentation; and 30 pages on the role of the state – taking us back to Peter Drucker.

But what I find most curious is the absence of a single reference (even in the notes!) to any of the voluminous academic (or consultants) literature on public management reform....I can well understand their journalistic judgement that the academic "reform industry" has nothing sensible to say to anyone....

Final Thought

But the state spends about 40% of our GNP – that’s our taxation! Surely we deserve to know what’s going on there – we certainly have a fair number of “special correspondents” for subjects such as education, economics, social policy, health, environment. Of course there are some subjects which have journalists salivating and publishers eagerly approving titles - Government “waste”? Ah, now you’re talking!!…..Government “blunders”?….even better!!!…..”Who runs this country?” That sounds suitably paranoiac!!!!….

My recommended reading below is restricted to books aimed at the general public (rather than academics and students) and is therefore light on examples of efforts in government reform……

Useful Reading
Some of the books in this list are included simply to illustrate a genre. The titles in italics are those I have found readable and useful in thinking about managing change in the public sector over the past 30 years. I have tried in each case to explain why…..

- Radical Help – how we can remake the relationships between us and Revolutionise the Welfare State; Hilary Cottam (2018) an inspiring example of experimental work discussed here

- Dismembered – the ideological attack on the state; Polly Toynbee and David Walker (2017) An angry call to action written by 2 journalists. This is the book which inspired me to write a series of blogs which blossomed into How did Admin Reform get to be so sexy?

- Called to Account – how corporate bad behaviour and government waste combine to cost us millions; Margaret Hodge (2016). Written by the woman who was, until recently, the indomitable Chair of the powerful parliamentary Public Accounts Committee. I have still to read it so include simply to demonstrate that such books exist (and in paperback!)

- How to Run a Government so that Citizens Benefit and Taxpayers don’t go Crazy; Michael Barber (2015). Interesting – if a bit self-serving – series of advice notes from the guy who became Tony Bliar’s management guru in the UK Cabinet

- Creating Public Value in Practice – advancing the common good in a ….noone in charge world; ed J Bryson et al (2015),  The great update of their fantastic 1995 book (see below)

- Who Governs Britain?; Anthony King (2015) A typical academic take on the issue which I include simply as an example of the genre

- Stand and Deliver – a design for successful government; Ed Straw (2014) A rather partial management consultant’s perspective which again I include as a rare example of the genre

- The Establishment – and how they get away with it; Owen Jones (2014) a withering critique of the British power elite

- The Blunders of our Governments; Anthony King and Ivor Crewe (2013) A bit disappointing and put into context by this excellent review by Matt Flinders

- People, Politics and Change - building communications strategy for governance reform (World Bank 2011). May be a bit technocratic but, at the time, it was like a breath of fresh air….You get the entire book here….

- Public Sector Reform – but not as we know it; Hilary Wainwright (Unison and TNI 2009) A rare readable case study of a bottom-up  approach to reform based on a case study of one city

- Governance Reform under Real-World Conditions – citizens, stakeholders and Voice (World Bank 2008). Very clearly written – with excellent analyses and diagrams. Again the entire book

- Managing Change in OECD Governments - an introductory Framework; O Melchor (OECD 2008)

A useful statement from the other global body
- An International Comparison of UK Public Administration (National Audit Office 2008) a typical consultants' analysis

- Systems Thinking in the Public Sector – the failure of the Reform regime and a manifesto for a better way; John Seddon (2008) Seddon was a rare voice of common sense – although I include this more as another rare example of consultants actually trying to justify themselves

- Squandered – how Gordon Brown is wasting one trillion pounds of our money; David Craig (2008). Not one I would recommend – there are quite a few of these books around.

- British Government in Crisis; Chris Foster (2005). A very good analysis by an experienced consultant

- The Essential Public Manager; by Chris Pollitt (2003) is, by far and away, the best book to help the intelligent citizen make sense of this field

- Leading Change – a guide to whole systems working; M Attwood, M Pedlar, S Prichard and D Wilkinson (2003). This one I have yet to read – although I have always found Mike Pedlar a good analyst. The link gives the entire book

- Governance in the 21st Century (OECD 2001). A useful analysis of the challenges facing state systems in the new millennium. The chapters by Perri 6, Sabel and Albrow are particularly stimulating. A click on the title gives you the entire book  

- Change Here – managing change to improve local services (Audit Commission 2001) The full 100 pages are here – and it’s a great read

- The Captive State – the corporate takeover of Britain; George Monbiot (2000) The best critique of its time

- Banishing Bureaucracy – the five strategies for reinventing government; D Osborne and P Plastrik (1997) 5 years on from “Reinventing Government”, Osborne had another go. This is part I of his book and looks at how Thatcher and Major tried to understand and manipulate the DNA of the State

- “The State Under Stress – can the hollow state be good?” Chris Foster and F Plowden (1996) Easily the best analysis of its time of the different ways in which the state was being broken up

- Leadership for the Common Good – tackling public problems in a shared power world; S Crosby and J Bryson (1995) One of the best – and the entire book accessible by clicking the title

- Really Reinventing Government; Peter Drucker (The Atlantic 1995). The guru’s reflections on the Reinvention game…. 

- The Deadly Sins of Public Administration; Peter Drucker (1980) The grand old man of management socks it to the American Society of Public Administration just as Thatcher and Reagan get underway