Making sense of the Referendum (and UK politics)

The mood in England (less so in the other 3 parts of the UK – particularly Scotland) seems this past week to be consolidating around withdrawal from the European Union. We have known that a significant section of the British population has never found involvement in Europe to their liking but -  

that Brexit is holding at around 45% support according to the polls; that it has two ruling party politicians (the cabinet’s most able thinker and one time confidant of the prime minister, and the Tory's most popular star) as its leaders; that they are supported by around half of the party's MPs and a clear majority of Conservative voters; that they might even win!............ This should not be remotely credible.

My blogposts this past week have been trying to shed some light on how on earth the country has got to this point.

But I discovered this morning that someone has, in the past few months, been writing and publishing the definitive explanation …..and that is Anthony Barnett of the Open Democracy website whose Blimey – it could be BREXIT ! has been serialising on a weekly basis on that site for the past 3 months.

It is, quite simply, one of the most stunning things I have read for many years – written by someone who has had a unique position at the heart of key debates about political power since the early 1970s and whose independence from any employer or ideology allows him to write with a unique balance of coherence and intellectual depth. 

As Barnett explains in his introduction - 

“Blimey!” is not 'about' the referendum or reporting its ups and downs week by week. My aim is to explain its 'meta-politics': what to make of why it is occurring, where it comes from, what forces are contained within this strange event, what the consequences may be for all of us in the UK and in Europe over the longer term.

I have not yet finished my reading of the 12 sections (at least 200 pages) but what impresses me is the clarity of expression; the width of his reading; and the generosity of his quotations and attributions. 

Conscious that about 75% of my readers are not native English speakers, I will try to summarise the points which particularly impressed me and post this asap .....

In the meantime, just click and dip in.....see for yourself

INTRODUCTION PART I: The Conjuncture 1. Thatcherism’s twin legacy defines the choice 2. Must the left be skewered, process and content 3. Dodgy Dave's referendum deal 4. Would you believe it, Boris and Gove defy corporate fatalism 5. It's a bad referendum, as Obama discovers 6. Maddening times 7. The curse of Brexit: the referendum claims its first scalp, Scottish Labour 8. The European project is ours: roll up our sleeves for remain  9. Labour's moribund referendum

PART II: What is sovereignty about? 10. England's Brexit  11. Let's Take Control! Brexit and sovereignty

Why immigration is the only issue in this referendum

One issue has dominated the British referendum debate of the past few months - and that is immigration.

Those wanting Britain to remain in Europe have talked in vain about the economic aspects – people no longer trust economic arguments and forecasts or those who use them. Even references to “European bureaucracy” - which for so long has been the staple fare of the overwhelmingly negative British media coverage of European affairs – have been put aside in favour of a focus on immigration.

And it didn’t need last year’s pictures of the hordes of Syrian refugees crossing the Aegean or smashing Balkan border fences to make this the number one issue in the campaign. Four million English citizens had in Britain’s 2015 General Election given their vote to UKiP – the nationalist party – four times as many as had voted for the Scottish Nationalists (who had as a result gained 50 Westminster seats).  
Such, however, is the nature of the British electoral system (“first past the post”) that UKiP won only one seat!!! 

The electoral support should have been a wake-up call but one solitary figure on the parliamentary benches has given the political elite the excuse to ignore the increasing alienation of the (mainly) the English citizen from the democratic process….The media attention given during the decade to parliamentary expenses (and business corruption) was certainly one factor in this but the two main factors in this alienation have been -

- the continuing economic decline in so many parts of the country; and 
- the awareness since 2000 of a growing number of immigrants - even in these areas - with the low-paid being nudged out of jobs by those prepared to accept less; and pressure on public services already being starved of resources

Just three weeks ago, a short House of Commons Briefing Paper on Migration Statistics set out (in chart 5) the facts very starkly – net annual immigration to Britain was a tiny blip from 1930-1960; actually negative from 1960-80 and less than a few thousand in the 1980s….

Only from the mid 1990s did it start to rise – 50,000 in 1998. But in the next decade it shot up – to almost 250,000   

The 2004 enlargement of the European Union (EU) to eight Eastern European countries (EU8) generated fears of large flows of low-skill immigrants from Eastern to Western Europe. For this reason most Western European countries (EU15) imposed temporary restrictions to the free movement of people from Eastern Europe. But the UK (along with Ireland and Sweden) did not impose any such restrictions – as a result “the Polish plumber” became a bone of contention in the country….

Gordon Brown and Tony Blair were the key players at the time – and it is therefore odd to see them popping up this week to argue the case for “Remain”. Blair knows he lost all credibility during the Iraq war - but Brown does not seem to realise that his role in the final week of the Scottish referendum of 2014 finished him as a figure of influence   

Very few British journalists operate outside the “Westminster bubble”. John Harris is a rarity..... Some five years ago he started to go round the country and use video for carrying out sharp interviews with the public…to get a sense of their concerns......all of which carried clear warnings for the political elite. This article from February this year was a great summary of what he was finding…Just a few weeks ago, he ran with this warning…Today saw his final post - from the Labour stronghold of Stoke-on-Trent - where those canvassing what they considered to be Labour voters could find only an angry determination to leave the EU

Rather belatedly, a few politicians have been trying to address the concerns. But it is too late – the scale of disgust and anger of the public is simply irresistible….

update - a further development here - with an important figure conceding that Europe needs to change tack on free movement of labour...but such a change is totally impossible.....

Two weeks ago pundits were saying that "it would be OK on the night" - that voters would, in the privacy of the polling booth, vote remain. It is now obvious that the opposite is happening....My prediction is of a LEAVE VOTE winning margin of 7-8%. I may not be in the country - or been so for a few years - but the few reporters I trust have been on the doorsteps and in the (Labour) party rooms and have a very good sense of the mood........
Frank Field has long been a maverick voice in the Labour party but he has been one of the few to articulate grass-roots concerns….

update April 2017; and here's a great chart!

Referenda or Neverenda??

Richard Dawkins is a name to conjure with – Professor of Evolutionary Biology, author of numerous books and a great sceptic….. He has just entered the debate on British membership of Europe by challenging the very idea of a referendum - 

My own answer to the question is, “How should I know? I don’t have a degree in economics. Or history. How dare you entrust such an important decision to ignoramuses like me?”

I, and most other people, don’t have the time or the experience to do our due diligence on the highly complex economic and social issues facing our country in, or out of, Europe. That’s why we vote for our Member of Parliament, who is paid a good salary to debate such matters on our behalf, and vote on them......... 

I am indeed a true democrat, but we live in a representative democracy not a plebiscite democracy. To call a referendum on any subject should be a decision not taken lightly...... But to call a referendum on a matter as important and fraught with complicated and intricate detail as EU membership was an act of monstrous irresponsibility: the desperate throw of a short-term chancer, running scared before the Ukip tendency within his own party. He may reap the whirlwind.

The 1975 Referendum broke new constitutional ground – it had never been used before….and was, in most people’s minds, associated with dodgy regimes…..Vernon Bogdanon (to whose analysis of the 1975 Referendum I referred yesterday) is Emeritus Professor of Government and author, amongst much else, of The New British Constitution. The grounds he gives for the support of such constitutional referenda do, therefore, deserve our attention. 

His analysis of the 1975 referendum gave two arguments – namely

- all parties supported membership in the 1970s - but public opinion was divided. A significant section of society had therefore no voice…

- the issue was so fundamental that the legitimacy of government was being threatened

But that’s not actually why or how the first ever British referendum came about……

In the 1970 Election, the Labour Party was defeated. Heath was returned to office. At the end of 1970, Tony Benn raised the possibility of the Labour Party committing itself to a referendum on joining Europe at Labour’s National Executive, but he could not find a seconder for the motion.
From 1971 onwards, the very complicated European Communities Bill made its way through Parliament, and in March 1972, a Conservative backbencher who was opposed to Europe, called Neil Martin, proposed an amendment calling for a referendum, and this meant the Shadow Cabinet had to decide what to do about it, and they decided to oppose this motion. 

But the very day after this happened, President Pompidou in France said he was going to have a referendum in France on whether the French people approved of British entry into Europe…and he was doing this for internal party political reasons, to weaken his opponents on the left, who were split on the issue. …. But there were going to be four new members of the European Community: Britain, Denmark, Ireland and Norway. In the end, Norway did not join. The other three countries were all having referendums. France was having a referendum on whether Britain should enter, but Britain was not. One cynic wrote to the newspapers that when Heath has spoken of full-hearted consent of Parliament and people, he meant full-hearted consent of the French Parliament and people…

After this, Labour’s National Executive voted narrowly in favour of the Benn proposal. Then, a couple of days later, pure coincidence, the Heath Government announced there was going to be a referendum, though they called it a plebiscite, in Northern Ireland, on the border, on whether people wished to remain in the United Kingdom or join the Irish Republic. At this point, the Labour Shadow Cabinet agreed to the referendum.

 So, it came about through a series of really unforeseen contingencies and vicissitudes, completely unplanned, this very fundamental change in the British system.

But there were, in my opinion, good arguments for it, and the first, I have already given, that the party system could not resolve the issue properly because all three parties were in favour of membership, so there was no way in which the democratic party machinery could work.

 But the second argument, I think, is even more important, that even if the party system had been working efficiently, there are some issues that are so fundamental that a decision by Parliament alone will not be accepted as legitimate. This point of view was put forward by the Labour Leader of the House of Commons, Edward Short, in March 1975. He said: “The issue continues to divide the country. The decision to go in has not been accepted. That is the essence of the case for having a referendum.”  

The referendum is one of several major constitutional changes which Bogdanon’s book assesses and which are superbly critiqued in this LRB review. But, Dawkins asks, is that a reason to abstain from voting? 

Certainly not. We are where we are, and there’s no use wishing we were somewhere else. I shall vote. And I shall vote to stay in Europe, exercising the Precautionary Principle which is appropriate to anyone lacking the confidence to push for a radical change in the status quo. Better the devil you know, or at least the devil that seems to be working adequately.

Moreover, as I listen to advocates from both sides I notice that, for all my lack of expertise, I am qualified to judge that most of the arguments for leaving are emotional. The evidence-based arguments tend to be the ones for remaining in Europe, whether they come from professional economists, historians, business leaders or powerful foreign politicians.

Comment;

1. Bogdanor’s presentation correctly reminds us that the 1975 referendum was supposed to settle the issue of Europe for ever - but that it was only a few years later that the Labour Party officially committed itself in the 1982 Manifesto to withdrawal…..and a few years after that that the Conservative Party started to tear itself apart on the issue. Somehow the issue never went away….hence the term which came into use during the Scottish debate on Independence “neverendum” – never-ending discussion….

2. Yesterday’s post emphasises the loss of trust there has been in the past decade in the political elite. But it more than that – it is a new lack of respect for arguments from people such as Dawkins and those whose opinion people like him respect….There is now a dangerous divide between professionals and the public

Britain Set to Leave Europe - what's it all about?

The UK referendum about membership of the European Union takes place in 12 days – and the latest poll has those intending to vote to leave the European Union a full ten points ahead.

If this is translated on 23 June into actual votes, the knock-on political effects in Europe will be profound – let alone the economic effects globally……

I therefore want to devote the next few posts to the question of how we got to this point – drawing on personal experience first in the 1960s of trying to understand what we then called “The Common Market”, then in the early 1970s on some recollections of the terms of the debate which took place as successive British governments first negotiated entry (Conservative) and then (under Labour in 1975) managed the referendum which resulted in a resounding support for British membership. 

I remember listening on the radio to Hugh Gaitskell’s  speech to the 1962 Labour Party Conference in which he strongly rejected the idea of joining the “European Economic Community” - claiming that Britain's participation would mean 

"the end of Britain as an independent European state, the end of a thousand years of history!" He added: "You may say, all right! Let it end! But, my goodness, it's a decision that needs a little care and thought."

Vernon Bogdanor did us a great service earlier in the year by taking us back to that period more than 50 years ago when key British figures were articulating their responses to the early stages of European integration – in  the early 1970s it was the Conservative Party (including Margaret Thatcher) which was most enthusiastic about entry – the Labour party the most antagonistic…the reverse of the present situation.....

In the past few weeks I’ve been following the discussions and have selected one article as offering the best insights - 

If Brexit happens, with all the chaotic and uncoordinated consequences it will have for both Europe and Britain, it won’t be because the leave campaign has the better arguments: it absolutely hasn’t. Or because the weight of evidence is on its side: it emphatically isn’t. Or because it is clear what Brexit actually means: it’s a complete leap in the dark. Or because it is masterfully led: that’s not true either. 

If Brexit wins, it will be because a majority of British voters have simply lost confidence in the way they are governed and the people they are governed by.
 That loss of confidence is part bloody-mindedness, part frivolity, part panic, part bad temper, part prejudice. But it is occurring – if it is – in a nation that has always prided itself, perhaps too complacently, on having very different qualities: good sense, practicality, balanced judgment, and a sure instinct for not lurching to the right or left.Why is it so hard to persuade the British electorate that a corner of the globe in which such quantities of blood have been spilled for centuries, and where life is mostly incredibly secure, is better off together not apart? 

We can all write about a Brexit vote being part of a wider trend in modern politics. It’s about globalisation, the crisis of capitalism, widening inequality, fear of the other, rejection of political elites, and the empowerment of the web. Up to a point, these things are all present in the Brexit campaign.And there is no question either that the EU is far from perfect, not working in fundamental ways, failed in some particulars, too easily beguiled by the head-in-the-sand centralising notion of “more Europe”, and scandalously passive about the needs of its people.

The EU certainly has to change. And yet if Britain walks away, it will be an act of immense political impulsiveness by one of the last countries in Europe that many would expect to behave that way. France, Spain, Italy, Greece, Hungary maybe, according to the old stereotypes. But Britain? How come?

We need to be far more honest and questioning about the specifically British things that underlie such an irrational and irresponsible impulse. British opinion is where it is on Europe because it is paying the price of past and present bad political habits.

 ·         There has been no British prime minister, not even Tony Blair, who thought of Europe as “us” rather than “them”. Margaret Thatcher set the template in her campaign for the budget rebate. Ever since British ministers have gone to Brussels to stop things, get opt-outs, cut budgets and scupper common projects. We have never had the confidence to be a team player rather than act the diva. David Cameron’s EU reform package is merely the latest example. Even Blair, who was certainly more comfortable in Europe, preferred to talk about Britain leading rather than playing its part. And we are reaping what they all sowed.

 ·         We are paying the price of our media. British journalism thinks of itself as uniquely excellent. It is more illuminating to think of it as uniquely awful. Few European countries have newspapers that are as partisan, misleading and confrontational as some of the overmighty titles in this country. The possibility of Brexit could only have happened because of the British press – if there were no other good reason for voting to remain, the hope of denying the press their long-craved triumph on Europe would suffice for me. But Brexit may also happen because of the infantilised and destructively coarse level of debate on social media too.

 ·         It’s payback time too for our failure to modernise and regenerate our politics. Modern Britain is ensnared by a complacent view of the past. We are not a democratic republic, with shared values, rights and institutions, a common culture and an appropriate modesty about our place in our region and the world. Ours remains a post-feudal state on to which various democratic constraints have been bolted through history. We therefore lack a shared culture, a settled civic sense, a proper second chamber, symmetrical devolution, effective local democracy and, until the human rights act, a clear and enforceable code of citizens’ rights – which of course the anti-Europeans wish to abolish.

 Maybe remain will win in the end. I still just about trust the people to get it right on the night. But unless, and until, this country stops being so passive about these tenacious bad political habits, a remain win won’t make as much difference as it should, and we will continue to sneer and snigger our way towards becoming a broken Britain in a broken Europe.

 Ps The Dublin Review of Books had a useful overview of the debate which had been conducted in the pages of The Guardian......  
Here’s Boffy’s take - https://boffyblog.blogspot.ro/2016/06/the-core-vote-will-win-it-for-brexit.html - part of a series of posts he's been writing giving a marxist slant on the issue of UK membership of the European Union

The cartoon which heads the post is a wonderful one from 1900 whose text is also worth reading - showing the assumptions being made in UK about the motives and attitudes of the various political players

Wood, Wine and....Canetti

Sofia detained us for a week and we decided to have a leisurely return (to Bucharest) taking the middle of the three routes which sprout east from Sofia – the quietest and probably most scenic which skirts the edge of the Stara Planina (otherwise known as Blue Mountains).

I had forgotten that this is the road which offers access to the beautiful 19^th century village of Koprovichitsa (which played such an important role in the 1870s uprising against the Turks) and had no hesitation in veering right to see it again…..my third visit in the past few years….(the first had been in winter; the second in autumn 2013) .The wood carvings on the doors and ceilings remind me of what an art form wood can be......RIP Bogdan......and I realise, rather belatedly, that the superbly carved pulpit is an unusual feature of these older Bulgarian churches – features which are not normally seen in Orthodox churches. The friendly priest who waved us (inc the cat) into the church stressed the ecumenical nature of the congregation in those days….….
Dare I wonder that the sermons possibly played a role in the 19^th century liberation??????

Karlovo and Kazanluk were on the schedule – the first to check whether any traces were left of the peaceful courtyards of the 1930s which Nicola Tanev painted so evocatively; Kazanluk, the heart of the rose valley, for possibly another visit to the municipal gallery which keeps the heart of the Bulgarian painting beating. More than 100 well-known artists grew up in this small town……

We spotted only a couple of remnants of former architectural splendours in Karlovo - and a sign for the Chateau Copsa winery soon had me distracted from thoughts of art galleries…..

Standing alone in the vineyards stretching to the horizon with the Blue Mountains towering above, the Chateau is a tastefully-created and designed modern building which offers not only wine-tasting and meals but accommodation and sauna….Two superb whites and two great roses were soon trickling down our throats – tempered with chunks of cheeses, walnuts and dried plums…..all for 6 euros apiece……one of the most delightful lunches we’ve had in some time………

And there was still a couple of hundred kilometres to go before we reached our evening destination – Russe – over the mountains to Veliko Tarnovo and then the final 100 kms….most of it by now thoroughly familiar.

We pulled in just after 18.00 to the fascinating Luliaka Hotel plum on the Danube but just within Russe’s boundaries. 

It’s rare for a hotel to attract my loyalty but I so loved the layout, atmosphere and quiet beauty of the site that I quickly booked a second night…… Their meals and house rose (from their own winery) were an added attraction which will draw me whenever I feel I need a restover on my way back from Sofia…..

And Russe has so many attractions – particularly, for us, the early 20^th century buildings….I had been looking for the Canetti family house – which the Nobel prizewinner describes in the first part of his memoirs and came across it completely by accident…..pausing to photo parts of the facade and only realising when I was inside that what seemed to be an arts complex was in fact the Canetti Foundation… hosting these days something called a “Process-Space Art Festival” (this is the statue the municipality recently erected to him at the entrance to his street)

Canetti actually lived in Russe for only a few years before his family migrated to Austria and he subsequently spent most of his life in London and Zurich.

His “Crowds and Power” was one of many books written by central Europeans which made an impact on me at University and I recently enjoyed his “kiss and tell” Party in the Blitz which complements his more famous trilogy of memoirs. Clive James does a demolition job on the man here.

A more sympathetic treatment of someone who typified that genre of central European polymath we have sadly lost is The Worlds of Elias Canetti – centenary essays (2005)

Our second evening we were treated to one of the most spectacular thunderstorms….

Bogdan - old friend RIP

I want to pay tribute today to a Romanian artist friend who died earlier this week at the age of 59 – Bogdan Dumitrescu.

He was essentially a sculptor – with the knots of wood as his inspiration. He was Daniela’s closest schoolmate and a penniless alcoholic - whose frequent telephone calls would sometimes lead to angry exchanges…..for his comments could often be cutting.

He was self-taught - his attempts to get into art school in Iasi failed, there were about half a dozen places available for more than a hundred aspirants at the time.....What hurt more was the refusal of the Romanian Union of Artists to admit him to its ranks....

 In the 80s he worked for a time at Bucharest’s famous Village Museum.... but his artistic temperament was impatient with the discipline involved….

His flat in Ploiesti was the most unkempt I have ever experienced – the photo is actually of his sitting room (the cleaner part!) but his genius (of which he was all too painfully aware) showed in his selection of woodcuts and strange fittings.

He was also a heavy smoker and had been in and out of hospital so often for treatment for the abuse from which his body was suffering……. He knew he was near to death – but his wry if not macabre humour still showed

The second photo is one of two tryptyches which are lovingly displayed in our mountain house 

The last two photos are of the 2 small pieces we bought on our last visit – just a week before he died….

In the 90s we visited the Sapanta "Happy Graveyard" in Maramures for which a local wood carver created colourful and amusing memorials to those buried.....We need an appropriate ditty for Bogdan....but these wood sculptures of his will, in our various flats and mountain house, remind us of his great spirit....

Dawdling in Dobrogea

We left Bucharest on Friday - first for Romania’s port city of Constanta where Daniela had a friend's christening....the little Dali hotel on a charming promontory in the heart of the old city the Greeks called Tomis gave us immediate access to the city's excellent art gallery which absorbed us for the Saturday morning....
This is an album of the paintings which I have posted on flickr -  about 150 paintings and a score of sculptures 

You get a sense of the city's charm with this panoramic video from the tower of one of the mosques – although the antics of their mayor has allowed the jewel of their Nouveau Art Casino to reach a state of decay which seems irreparable. "A  Patriot’s Romania" blog had a little comment about this – and about the town’s interesting religious traditions – which complements nicely this fascinating paper on Jewish architecture in the city

The meal which followed the christening was a rare opportunity for me to study Romanians en famille and I thoroughly enjoyed it......so much so that we were unable to attend the concert in the Art Gallery which was celebrating Night of the Museums…. 

We left Constanta early on Sunday reckoning that the 600 kilometre drive to Sofia was a bit much for one day and that a border crossing at Silistra on the southern bank of the Danube would avoid the 20 minute minimum wait on the old bridge at Russe which major repairs are causing.

New security checks are also causing delays but only 3 cars were in front of us at the Silistra check

But before then we had been charmed by the rolling hills and smart villages of Dobrogea (the grapes from the famous Murfatlar and other wines clearly bring in some cash); and the huge white memorial of Roman General Traian to fallen Roman soldiers a 1977 rebuild of which towers over the countryside. We passed the vineyards of the Ostrov wine but were unable to find any wine for tasting or purchase….  

There's a nice blogpost here about the Ostrov ferry from A Patriot's Romania

Silistra was sleepy – with a small mosque in its main street and didn’t detain us as we sped to Russe for the night...
I just managed to get to its art gallery – which had earned a black mark from me when I last visited it some 4 winters earlier…. 
This time it made more impact – thanks mainly to the conversation with one of its curators….But I didn’t remember seeing before the works of Radoykov (above) and Lazorov ….

And I'm now in Sofia - for the next week or so for the next stage of the dental upgrade and check-up with the dermatologist (for the shingles).

Mapping Romania - a bumper new version!!

Many of my readers, understandably, went elsewhere as my posts flagged at the beginning of the year but I am delighted to welcome my Russian readers back - and to pay tribute to their good sense in seeking out older posts which, for me, are as good as (or even better than) more recent writing….The country of my readers is about the only thing my blog statistics tell me so is something in which I take particular interest…..   

Anyway, now that I’m back in Romania and anticipating a visit later in June from three old friends, I offer a 250 page book – with hundreds of photographs and of hyperlinks. It’s Mapping Romania – notes on an unfinished journey, a new, expanded edition of a small E-book I first published 2 years ago. 

I readily admit that it is an odd collection - consisting of three elements –

- First an exhaustive annotated list of writing (mainly in English) about the diverse cultural aspects of Romania – whether music, photography, literature, buildings, cinema……with hundreds of hyperlinks………you just dip in and view, read or listen as the mood takes you…These lists are interspersed with excerpts from papers and books to give more depth….

- I have, secondly, selected (mainly for the Annexes) some substantial articles which seem to me to capture an important aspect of the “soul” of the country – one is a harrowing description which appeared in the New York Review of Books in the 1980s (but written by a Romanian) of the suffering being experienced then by the Romanian people; another is a fairly coruscating view of the country in 2000 by the famous historian Tony Judt; and the final article is one on the new wave of Romanian cinema which I’ve included simply because the themes represented in the films capture so well the concerns of contemporary Romania….

- The third element in the collection are the 70-odd pieces I’ve posted about Romania on my blog. The most personal of the sections….. 

The nice thing about the version I have posted is that it can be read as a book - with facing pages which you can flick......very nice feature....courtesy of ISSUU website......