systems again

Even thicker snow apparently struck Britain yesterday – so this was a wide front! Noises were heard in the attic during the night! Bats or rats? We did hear an ominous gnawing sound under the terrace a week or so back! I’m only worried about the risk to the electricity cables?? Nothing evident in the cold light of day – although there are gaps between the old wooden beams through which light can be seen via the schitza roof tiles. These are the issues which threaten relationships – with one meekly accepting nature’s way and the other waiting to pounce and dreaming up various scientific interventions.
I need to return to the systems issue – but on another occasion. Margaret Wheatleyis another writer who has tried to use chaos theory in a rethink of management and Chris Hood’s The Art of the State has the fatalistic school as one of his four basic schools of thinking about government and society. What I’m trying to square is the rationalistic spirit of things such as impact assessment and the logframe in project planning (which are gods for the consultancy world) – and the reality of change. Robert Quinn’s Change the world is perhaps the book which most easily expresses what the approach might mean for managers. But government consultants and policy advisers who work in EU candidate or "neighbourhood' countries have a moral dilemma. The EU expects us to push this rationalistic crap. What do we do?

And here’s a useful case-study just issued by International Crisis Group – on Azerbaijan. It may not be in crisis at the moment - but the report argues that such is the depth of the corruption and repression which the younger Aliyev continues to practice (to the disregard of the rural population) that we can anticipate storms ahead. Coincidentally I am reading Tom Reiss's The Orientalist - about the life of Lev Nussimbaum alias Kurban Said who wrote the marvellous Ali and Nino novel which depicts the tension in Baku in the early part of the 20th century caught as many of its residents were between West and East.
The picture is of the lane at the bottom of our garden - not far from the Transylvanian border

Snow and systems thinking

As I drive back from the mega Hornbach store on this side of Brasov city with a large heather-purple carpet and lots of storeage boxes for the attic, I suddenly spot the snow on the Bustegi mountains to my left at Bran! On 2 September! And when I reach home I glimpse it also on Piatre Craiului at our back. A week or so ago I was worried that I had wrongly named my blog – since a few maps I saw in recent books named this part of the mountain range The Transylvanian Alps. But I am now reassured that this is indeed part of the Carpathian range which stretches in an incredible arc from Serbia east, north and then west to Slovakia. Nick Crane did a book on his walk across all the Alps – including these- and it’s about time I read it.
As I pass through my neighbour’s small farm/guest house (they very kindly allow me to leave my car parked at their front) I pick up 2 litres of the Maramures palinka they have bought for me – powerful stuff at 4 euros a litre!

One of my ambitions recently has been to try to understand the practical implications of the systems way of thinking – for example what it might mean for government policy-making. I was vaguely aware of it in the 1970s from my link with the Tavistock Institute and was reminded of it first in the 1990s by Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline and, more recently, by John Seddon’s critique of the command and control regimes.
The insight about interconnectedness – caught in the famous observation that the flapping of a butterfly’s wings on one side of the planet can cause a storm on the other side – seems profoundly conservative. If things are so complex, then best to leave well alone ie minimize government interventions. And that is certainly the message of James Scott’s Seeing like a State – how certain schemes to improve the human condition have failed which has become a recent classic. One reviewer summed it up excellently -

It begins with a romp through eighteenth- and nineteenth-century German forestry--and the failure of the foresters to understand the ecology of the forests that they were trying to manage. It continues with a brief digression on how states tried to gain control of their populations through maps, boulevards, and names.

These are prequels to a vicious and effective critique of what Scott calls "high modernism": the belief that the planner--whether Le Corbusier designing a city, Vladimir Lenin designing a planned economy, or Julius Nyerere "villagizing" the people of Tanzania--knows best, and can move humans and their lives around on as if on a chessboard to create utopia.

Then a chapter on agriculture in developing economies that characterizes agricultural extension efforts from the first to the third world as analogous to Lenin's nationalization of industry, or Nyerere's forced resettlement of Tanzanians. But the targets -- the agricultural extenders who dismiss established practices -- lose solidity and become shadows. They are no longer living, breathing, powerful rulers,; instead they are the "credo of American agriculture," the "catechism of high- modernist agriculture," the "high-modernist aesthetic and ideology of most colonial trained agronomists and their Western-trained successors" -- truly straw men.

The conclusion is a call for social systems that recognize the importance of what Scott calls "metis": a Greek word for the practical knowledge that a skilled and experienced worker has of his craft. Most such practical knowledge cannot be easily summarized and simple rules, and much of it remains implicit: the devil is in the details.

T he key fault of "high modernism," as Scott understands it, is its belief that details don't matter -- that planners can decree from on high, people obey, and utopia results. Scott's declarations of the importance of the detailed practical knowledge possessed by the person-on-the-spot -- of how such knowledge cannot be transmitted up any hierarchy to those-in-charge in a way to do any good--of how the locus of decision-making must remain with those who have the craft to understand the situation--of how any system that functions at all must create and maintain a space in which there is sufficient flexibility for craftsmen to exercise their metis (even if the hierarchs of the system pretend not to notice this flexibility)--all of these strike an economist as very, very familiar.

All of these seem familiar to economists because they are the points made by Ludwig von Mises (1920) and Friedrich Hayek (1937) and the other Austrian economists in their pre-World War II debate with socialists over the possibility of central planning. Hayek's adversaries--Oskar Lange and company--argued that a market system had to be inferior to a centrally-planned system: at the very least, a centrally-planned economy could set up internal decision-making procedures that would mimic the market, and the central planners could also adjust things to increase social welfare and account for external effects in a way that a market system could never do. Hayek, in response, argued that the functionaries of a central-planning board could never succeed, because they could never create both the incentives and the flexibility for the people-on-the-spot to exercise what Scott calls metis.

Today all economists--even those who are very hostile to Hayek's other arguments (that government regulation of the money supply lies at the root of the business cycle, that political attempts to reduce inequalities in the distribution of income lead to totalitarianism, that the competitive market is the "natural spontaneous order" of human society) -- agree that Hayek and company hit this particular nail squarely on the head.

Looking back at the seventy-year trajectory of Communism, it seems very clear that Hayek (and Scott) are right: that its principal flaw is its attempt to concentrate knowledge, authority, and decision-making power at the center rather than pushing the power to act, the freedom to do so, and the incentive to act productively out to the periphery where the people-on-the-spot have the local knowledge to act effectively.
In short, by the end of his book James Scott has argued himself into the intellectual positions adopted by Friedrich Hayek back before World War II. Yet throughout the book Scott appears to be ignorant that the intellectual terrain which he has reached has already been well-explored

A whole book is available online about the implications of systems thinking for management.

gypsies or Roma - what's in a name?

Weather in the mountains is cold, windy and overcast. So the first fire was duly lit in Daniela’s bedroom terracotta stove (soba) – and the new woodenhorse (they call it a chevra here (goat) made by our old neighbour Viciu christened. The chainsaw came out of hibernation to cut up the small pieces that stove needs. The wood central heating system needs larger pieces – which are stored outside – but I am always reluctant to start the boiler since I still have not quite mastered the art of getting the right amount of ember to allow the system to activate! In principle I need to to load new wood only every 6 hours.
The attic is slowly becoming more inviting – with carpets and a Chinese room divider with superb silk depictions of medieval life.
Today’s der Spiegel has a story on a German military report on life with less oil which has leaked.

The recent round-up by French authorities of some 300 gypsies and their return to Bulgaria and Romania (with the incentive of a 300 euro payment) is a subject requiring comment – but is not easy for me to write about. I remember vividly the stigmatization of the low income people I represented in the East End of Greenock; the physical and mental ghettoes into which they were driven by bureaucratic systems; the skills and drive which many had but which found little outlet; and how they responded when they were treated with some respect and enjoyed partnership status in various programmes. When I worked in Bulgaria recently, the Ministry of Labour was desperate for advice on how to handle the gypsies – and all I could offer was my (and the subsequent Scottish) experience of trying to develop more equal opportunities amongst groups who had been discriminated against.
The gypsies have support from none less than George Soros himself.

The greatest divide between the Roma and majority populations is not one of culture or lifestyle – as is so often portrayed by the media – but poverty and inequality. The divide is physical, not just mental. Segregated schooling is a barrier to integration and produces prejudice and failure. Segregated housing has led to huge shantytowns and settlements lacking sanitation and other basic conditions essential to a life with dignity. The plight of so many millions of Roma in the twenty-first century makes a mockery of European values and stains Europe’s conscience.
Roma want to and can integrate if they are given the opportunity, as my foundation’s programs have shown. Most Roma share the aspirations of the majority populations: a home with adequate services, a decent education for their children, jobs that enable them to provide for their families, and to interact with the majority in their society. It is because they face appalling discrimination and deprivation at home that they continue to migrate across Europe. The EU must recognize that the pan-European nature of this problem demands a comprehensive and effective strategy for Roma inclusion.

Unfortunately things are not quite so simple. I fiind it difficult, for example, to accept his assumption that a majority of gypsies share the same aspirations as the societies in which they live.
It is, of course, always wrong and dangerous to stigmatise a group. And there is no doubt that there are gypsies (or Roma) and gypsies. We employed several to construct our roof guttering system – and respect and like these individuals. Upper crust William Blacker (whose Along the Enchanted Way I reviewed recently) went further. He lived and worked with them (in a fairly integrated village not far from here on the outskirts of Sighoasara), defended them against false accusations and bore a child bya gypsy who is now being raised as a gypsy lad. Romania has had several famous gypsy intellectuals (eg violinist and conductor Voica) and has its gypsy MPs who are as reputable as the next MP! But there is no denying that they are a group which has its own norms which conflict with those of society at large and which makes integration very difficult – not least since integration is not a mission many share. A Hungarian teacher has posted a comment on Soros article which is worth reading. Even William Blacker had to remark that his gypsy friends were unable to do the necessary planning to ensure they had enough food for the winter months (when they would resort to stealing). And it seems fairly clear that those who went to France did so to take advantage of the system and its riches there in an underhand manner.
There is a strand of liberal thinking which seems to want everyone to suspend moral judgement for groups they have decided are sinned against. Millions of euros have been spent over the past decade by the EU in both Bulgaria and Romania on projects aimed at integrating gypsies into the labour market and society generally. Soros (as he says) has also developed programmes with similar aims. Where are the results? Where are the assessments?
Of course, I know from my own 20 years experience in the west of Scotland that multi-million euros programmes are not in themselves enough to deal with deep-rooted discrimination. As Soros notes -

In 2009, the EU endorsed the principle of “explicit but not exclusive targeting” for Roma, and the European Commission allowed structural funds to be used to cover housing interventions in favour of marginalized communities, with a particular focus on Roma. This is a welcome step and “explicit but not exclusive targeting” should be extended to education, health care, and employment. Most importantly, the rules guiding how structural funds are spent should be changed to allow their use for health and education from early childhood, rather than only for job training.
Structural poverty in Roma communities is intimately linked to poor education and unemployment. The Commission’s Europe 2020 initiative sets specific targets for raising school completion rates and employment levels for all EU citizens. In both of these areas, Roma fall so far behind their fellow citizens that targeted measures to close the gap should be an integral part of the Europe 2020 plan.

But Soros and others will get nowhere unless they recognize and are prepared to admit (as does Blacker) the current behavioural problems of so many of this group.

The four musts of 政治体制改革 (political reform)

I continue my vicarious interest in events in China – and how the system can adjust to the incredible environmental and social pressures now clearly threatening it. China Digital Times gives me a daily overview – and Hu Shuli’s piece yesterday on political reform (the chinese characters are apparently pronounced zhengzhi tizhi gaige) is quite fascinating

Economic reforms and political reforms are complementary and mutually dependent. Deng Xiaoping, the original architect of China’s economic reforms, recognized this fact early on. He said: “The question of whether all of our reforms can ultimately succeed is still to decided by the reform of the political system.”
If we go back to the beginning of reforms, we see that economic reforms and political reforms ran in parallel. Abolishing the system of life-long tenure in leadership posts, promoting the separation of the functions of the Party and the government, strengthening the function of the National People’s Congress, government dialogue with the public on major issues — these were all early trials.
In the past twenty years, however, political reforms have been far from sufficient, a fact that is undeniable.
We must beware this idea that has lately reared up — that China’s economic strength and successes are themselves a demonstration of the success of China’s political system. According to this logic, China’s political system has not changed in the past 60 years, and it is suited as well to the planned economy as it is to the market economy. Given the “political advantage” represented by this “China model,” reform was never necessary before, and reform is equally unnecessary in the future. This argument is blind to the fact that our political system is unsuited to China’s economic development right now. Moreover, it gainsays the CCP’s pronouncements on political reform, and shows blatant disregard for public feeling on this issue.
The failure of forward progress on political reform also has something to do with our apprehensions. No doubt the greatest apprehension among these is the fear that political reform, if not done carefully, will lead to social unrest. This concern is entirely understandable, and it deserves an ear. But if this fear is permitted to carry the day, the factors of social instability in China will only continue to pile up.
Owing to the sensitivity of the political reform issue, the reform discussion over the past couple of years has focused on more limited ideas like “government reform” and “administrative reform”, which have actually served to distract from the real and critical tasks of reform.
In his recent speech, Wen Jiabao said political system reforms “must protect the democratic and legal rights of the people; must broadly mobilize and organize the people to manage the affairs of the state, the economy, society and culture in accordance with the law; must resolve on a systemic level the problem of over-concentration of power and unchecked power, creating the conditions for allowing the people to criticize and monitor the government, firmly punishing corruption; must build a fair and just society, in particular protecting judicial impartiality and prioritizing the assistance of weaker elements in society, so that people may live with a sense of safety, and have confidence in the development of the nation.”
These four “musts” are a significant contribution, and can be seen as breakthrough points for political reform. The most important thing, however, is that we act quickly.

what happens when the rivers run dry?

Our taps run dry each morning at the moment – the water returns only about 07.00 when I finally flush the toilet and scamper around filling 3 litre plastic bottles. Hopefully things will return to normal next week – when the holiday-makers return to their homes in the plain where the temperatures are slowly subsiding (to 32 or so). But, according to Fred Pearce’s What happens when the Rivers run dry? , there will be no return to normal for us globally. I am at the early stages of this book – but am already stunned at some of the statistics. I had not realised that it takes 2,000 litres of water to produce a kilo of coffee – and countries like Ethiopa and Brazil can ill-afford the export of such “virtual water”. Nor had I appreciated that the “Green Revolution” of the 1970s – which dramatically increased crops and saved the fate of many nations – was not only wasteful of water but in most places has been draining water aquafers which take decades in most case to refill. I knew about the damage which dams had inflicted – both directly (by alteration of biodiversity) and indirectly (when so many Chinese dams, for example, collapsed in the 1970s and 1980s killing millions) – but had not appreciated how the hydraulic works can go wrong - eg those in the Indus valley started by the Brits in the 1930s and continued by The World Bank after Pakistan gained its independence set off effects which have totally poisoned the soil and forced mass migration. It is so ironic to read of the plight of these people 3 years ago who chose to remain without adequate water or livelihoods now swept away in floods whose effect is reckoned to be larger than the last 3 greatest natural disasters (The Tsunami, the Haiti and Kasmir earthquakes )
I find it strange that there is so little coverage has been given to the water issue – compared with that of climate change. I mentioned recently Ricardo Petrella’s concern 20 years ago - but have seen little discussion of the issue in the media since then. If ever we wanted an example of counterproductivity in public policy=making this is it!

Germany and China

I am a rare British example of a Germanophile – it was bred by my father’s reconciliation (Versoehnungsmission) work in the late 1950s in the Detmold area where he twinned (in the modern jargon) with a church in Heiligenkirchen village. The visit the family made with him in 1955 was instrumental in my opting tofocus my scholastic activities on modern languages in senior school and the first two years of University. I enjoy my visits to Germany and have worked for 3 German companies – one of which (a small Berlin energy consultancy InnoTech) famously told me in 1992 or so “We don’t pay you to think’we pay you to obey”). I had started to object that an EU programme which was supposed to be helping central Europeans adjust their energy systems was just a front for western commercial interests.
And I did notice in Uzbekistan that it was the Germans who cosied up to the regime when the rest of Europe was boycotting it; and also, more recently in Beijing, that Germany had a very high profile in China.
An interesting article in der Spiegel points to the dangers of the growing German dependence on the Chinese economy

The Chinese to this day admire imperial latecomer Germany for having caught up with Britain and France. After World War I, German officers and representatives of heavy industry came to the aid of the Chinese nationalist general Chiang Kai-shek.
Economic relations were eagerly revived in the 1980s. In 1984, VW signed a joint venture agreement with the state-owned Shanghai automaker. Even after the bloody suppression of student protests on Tiananmen Square in 1989, German industry was unwilling to spoil its cozy relationship with Beijing's leaders. Only three months after the massacre, Otto Wolff von Amerongen, chairman of the German East-West Trade Committee, became the first foreign official to pay a visit to then-Prime Minister Li Peng. During the administrations of former Chancellors Helmut Kohl and Gerhard Schröder, the Germans were viewed in Beijing as docile partners who were more interested in their business deals than in questions of human rights.
The first major rift happened in 2007, when Merkel received the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Chinese-occupied Tibet, in Berlin. The furious Chinese cancelled scheduled diplomatic meetings and threatened to suspend contracts. German business leaders, like BASF CEO Jürgen Hambrecht, argued that it would be preferable to settle differences with China on the quiet.
But Merkel was unimpressed at first, noting that as German chancellor, she would decide with whom she was to meet. It's debatable whether Merkel would get away with such a gesture today. China has become stronger and more powerful since then, and unnecessarily provoking the country is probably not a good idea.
During her most recent visit to Beijing, the chancellor handed her hosts a list of dissidents in Chinese prisons. She addressed the subject of human rights, but she did it quietly enough so as not to embarrass the Communist Party leadership.
Merkel is convinced that China wants to become a superpower at all costs. The financial crisis has only accelerated this process. The chancellor senses the new self-confidence of Beijing's leaders, and she wants to ensure that Germany will not be left in the dust when the world's political center of gravity shifts.
Hence, she is interested in a good relationship with the Chinese. But how does one build close relations with a country when one is simultaneously criticizing it for its human rights violations and contempt for international rules?
This is the big question that currently shapes Germany's China policy. Merkel's challenge is to cultivate the relationship without creating the impression that she doesn't care about democracy, civil rights or protecting German economic interests.

German Impotence
Speaking recently to a small group of confidants, she mused that it doesn't help to vehemently parade one's own impotence on the issue of human rights. Instead, during her recent visit to Beijing in July, she encouraged German business leaders to air their frustrations over trademark piracy and mandatory discounts -- and she was successful. Siemens CEO Peter Löscher complained about the poor prospects for Western companies in bidding for government contracts in China. BASF CEO Jürgen Hambrecht criticized Beijing's policy of forcing Western companies to disclose their know-how, noting that it "doesn't quite correspond to our notion of a partnership." Officials at the German Economics Ministry say that "there was a completely new tone" at the meeting.
The effort shows that, 30 years after the beginning of Chinese reform policies, Germany's involvement in China has reached a turning point. Until now, it was considered de rigueur for anyone doing business in China to conform to local norms, sometimes to the point of self-denial. Those who managed to sidle up to Beijing's functionaries -- derisively referred to as "panda huggers" -- were most likely to garner the best contracts. In the future, Germans will face a completely new challenge in China. They'll have to learn that sometimes it's in their best interest to say no.
For politicians, this means defending Western values of democracy and the rule of law, even in the face of Chinese opposition. All around the world, from Africa to Asia to South America, Beijing is trying to tout its model of authoritarian state capitalism as the better alternative. If the West hopes to preserve its influence in these regions, it will have to prove that it is not prepared to abandon its basic principles. After all, credibility is also a value.

No Choice
It is no less important for the rivals of East Asia's rising industrial power to do their homework. For example, the United States, by long pursuing a policy of paying for its consumption with borrowed funds, has become dangerously dependent on Beijing. China has been the US's biggest creditor for years. With its trillions in foreign currency reserves, Beijing could manipulate the value of the dollar almost at will.
If the United States hopes to liberate itself from this dependency, it has no choice but to find its way back to the type of economy that was long held in high regard in the US. The government in Washington should finally clean up its deficit, and US consumers need to save more.
For Europe, too, much depends on whether it manages to solve the financial problems in the euro zone. As long as countries like Greece, Ireland and Spain are threatened by bankruptcy, the euro remains acutely at risk. But if the monetary union collapsed, the Germans would also suffer. Their currency would most likely become much stronger, thereby significantly curbing exports. The challenges for European politicians are obvious. Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and others must avert national bankruptcies in the euro zone and reestablish a sustainable basis for the monetary union in the long term.
The German economy faces an enormous challenge, and yet sometimes it seems as if its business leaders are still reluctant to take on the Chinese. "We can either do without this huge growth market, or we submit to the Chinese conditions," says one German auto executive. "There is nothing in between."

tribes, traditions and transitions

A time for superficial dipping – with another Amazon packet thudding onto the table. At the moment I’m locked into Jonathan Watt’s grim journey around China’s environmental disasters
and spellbound by William Blacker’s Along the Enchanted Way
This last is a memoir of ten years spent in Transylvania and the Maramures as an age-old way of life gradually crumbles in the face of modernity. Jason Goodwin (who writes so well about the ottoman way of life) has given it a very positive review on the Amazon site.

It's a gripping and affecting account of the experience of living in this remote and beautiful region of Europe, telling a story that's almost impossibly romantic. He chronicles a near-mediaeval way of life, with its horses and witches, its casual kindness and grace, its wholeness and jealousies -interwoven with his own story - the years he spent living the peasant life, the rumbunctious affair with his Gypsy girlfriend, the brutality of the police, the cruelty and the wisdom of country life.

I particularly enjoyed his description of his attempts to learn the scything technique which so well matches my own.
With guests here, I slept last night under the eaves in the attic last night for the first time since it was refurbished all of a year ago. It’s about time we gave it some decorative treatment!

The morning dawned cloudy for the first time for amore than a week – and an article on Kyrgzystan got me to browsing through recent stuff on this country which I knew so well in 2005-2007.
One of the articles was by my friend David Coombes
The admirable Crisis Group has just issued its detailed assessment of the horrific events of April in that country
And I noticed that the guy who was central asian Director of Crisis Group – David Lewis - has an interesting analysis of the area - Temptations of Tyranny in Central Asia

Another interesting recent discovery was the debates which the Economist journal now runs online – the most recent of which was on the Chinese development model.

New York Review of Books blogs are always interesting – and, with all the recent publicity about Wikileaks, this one on secrecy in China is worth a look
Finally – and remembering what I said recently about satire - PJ O’Rourke has a great piece on the way our understanding of far-off countries is filtered by journalists

idyllic summer days

Superb weather for the past week – almost cloudless skies and generally with a cooling breeze which makes the trees around us dance in son et lumiere style. A late post since various things including domestic duties intervened eg erection of alight barrier in front of the house to deter our neighbour’s cow from leaving smelly messages now that we’ve invited her to our (greener) field. And then – because of the sudden and welcome return of the water which had vanishedfrom our taps a day or so ago – some serious washing.
Just settling down when a call came from down the hill – “packet at the post office” and 17 more books and 2 DVDs were duly unpacked and added to the groaning bookcases. So only time to refer to two of the only blogs I can find in English about life in Bucharest. Sara also follows Romanian events vert closely - from America I think.
The image is of Bran castle - just down the road