Novels and music

Have been indulging myself in past week – eg reading three John le Carre novels in quick succession – A Small Town in Germany (1968); The Second Pilgrim (1991); and The Looking Glass War (1965). His portrayal of Embassy life in the first two is cutting; and the dialogues on the compromises such people make rise occasionally to Shakespearean levels. Corporate power looms large in the middle book – and the conclusions of all three books, unusually for such thrillers, give idealists little hope. I’ve come late to le Carre and am hooked. He is a great wordsmith; crafts great atmosphere; and, by virtue of his focus on moral dilemmas, can reasonably claim to be one of the great political novelists.  

Pity he can’t be persuaded to write a novel based on Romanian political realities! Presumably someone will soon write a novel focused on the recent work of prosecutors here which, having put one ex-Prime Minister and a Minister of Agriculture into prison, now have another ex-Minister and current MEP in their sights 

A great Romanian pianist died at the weekend – at the tragically young age of 33 - Mihaela Ursuleasa

She represented Romania’s great cultural tradition whose musical side was celebrated recently in a Sarah in Romania post 

Not just the well-known Enescu but composers such as Porumbescu (here and here); Martian Neagra, Dinicu  and Constantinescu to mention a handful. And these are just some of the composers! Then throw in the performers eg The Balinescu quartet eg their wine’s so good and their Life and Death. Hopefully you can hear the YouTube music - for the moment I have no sound!

What a pity that their political class has dragged the country's reputation down!

And I have just learned that Gore Vidal has died - at age 86. I've only read a couple of his novels but it was his increasingly acerbic essays on American politics which had me rolling in the aisles - particularly his mock State of the Union addresses.

State Capture

I returned from Sofia last Thursday (with many litres of white Bulgarian wine) and am now back in the mountains – silent witness to the latest events of the pantomime which passes for politics here in Romania.

Only 46 percent of voters apparently cast their ballots in Sunday’s referendum called after the Romanian parliament suspended Basescu in early July on accusations that he had overstepped his power. Given the outdated nature of the electoral register, this is an astonishingly high percentage for such a contentious, quickly-called and inconveniently-timed referendum and suggest to me the ballot-stuffing of which this government has proved itself highly capable.
88 percent of those who did bother to vote favoured Basescu's ejection, but the president had asked his followers to boycott the referendum.

On Monday, just hours after the country's Central Election Bureau announced that voter turnout had not been sufficient to make results of the referendum valid, Basescu went on the attack. Those who "organized this failed coup," he said, "should be held responsible before the state institutions."

Prime Minister Victor Ponta promptly responded by demanding that the president resign. "He will probably stay in the presidential palace, will have cars, villas and some profiteers around him who will continue to advise and praise him," Ponta said on Monday. "But for the Romanian people he stopped being a leader last night."

The Romanian Academic Society is one of the few bodies in this country which tries to offer analysis rather than emotional diatribes – and I missed its typically balanced paper which puts the recent antics in the detailed context of legislative and political events and court decisions in Romania over the past 2-3 years. The paper draws attention to the scale of parliamentarian cross-dressing (MPs changing parties during the course of a parliament) and argues that 

the reason for this bitter fighting and the high political migration in Romania is one and the same: the high stakes of state capture in an environment with major corruption opportunities. 

The paper even-handedly points to the corruption of Basescu colleagues which has been unearthed recently – undermining the argument that this has been, in the phrase of one German newspaper, a case of white knights versus black knights

A system in which the suspended President’s daughter; acting President’s wife and Prime Minister’s wife are all (from different parties) Members of the European Parliament indicates just what a self-serving political class we have here. Another RAS commentary gives more detail on the political aspects of the RomanianConstitutional Court.

And a Transition Online article puts the Romanian judicial situation in the wider context of Central Europe. 

Firm action from the EC

With the Danube and mid Balkan towns having hit 42 degrees on Sunday, we edged nervously out of the Bucharest suburbs at 07.30 Monday. But the forecasts had assured us of more acceptable temperatures - and the drive to Sofia was in fact a delight. The Bulgarian roads from Russe to Sofia are like the old RN French roads – narrow but straight – and offer very relaxed conditions (if you know where to watch for the cops). 

And Sofia welcomed us six hours later with a great rose wine and meal. Who can ask for more?

Every day since dawns coolly – with the narrow streets and trees offering great cycling conditions until mid afternoon when we disappear into the Rodina Hotel pool and exercises.

In our absence the EC has acted, as Tom Gallagher argues here, with commendable firmness toward its wayward child and issued yesterday an appropriate judgement, the technical detail of which can be seen here 

The Romanian President will still lose the 29 July vote – and it is highly unlikely that the complex package of nationalistic outrage (“we obey only Romanians”) and admissions of guilt and remorse by the Prime Minister and acting President will in fact translate into anything significant thereafter. 

Most of the western commentators have taken Basescu’s side – mainly because of the sheer crudity and stupidity of the tactics used in the Ponta power grab (Iliescu,  Nastase and even Basescu were so much more clever). Basescu is credited by Westerners with being the real reformer and certainly is the one person who has pursued judicial reform with real zeal. But to those who excuse Basescu’s breaches of constitutionality (he ruled for several years, for example, on emergency ordinances while having a parliamentary majority) I simply reply that I have still to see an article (in English) which can convince me (judicial reform apart) that he has in the past 8 years actually been pursuing a coherent reform agenda. 

He seems to me just a bull in a china shop – who loves the sound of his own bellow.  

A leftist website gives, amazingly, a more objective perspective. 
And an article in Der Spiegel gives some useful background on the political party set-up -

Ponta's three-party alliance, called the Social Liberal Union, is populated by a worrying number of prominent politicians and businesspeople who are suspected of corruption, abuse of office or crime. Interim President Antonescu's National Liberal Party, for example, provides a political home to the oil magnate and billionaire Dinu Patriciu, who has successfully withstood years of investigations into allegedly corrupt privatization deals. Head of the insignificant Conservative Party, Dan Voiculescu, is a former Securitate employee who was instrumental in helping ex-Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu acquire hard currency. Now one of the richest people in the country, he owns the influential television broadcasters Antena1 and Antena3.
And then there is the Social Democratic Party (PSD) of Prime Minister Victor Ponta. The party has its origins in the days following the toppling of Ceausescu in December 1989. It rapidly became a collection of former Securitate and communist party elites and is seen by many in Romania as the ultimate symbol of a corrupt oligarchy.
Ponta's political mentor, former Prime Minister and PSD head Adrian Nastase, for example, is an icon of political corruption. On June 20, he was sentenced to two years behind bars for illegal campaign and party financing practices. It was the first time in two decades that a politician of his caliber was sent to jail. In an attempt to avoid jail time, Nastase last month acted out an elaborate suicide attempt -- which merely delayed his sentence by a few days. He is now in jail.

A 'Duplicitous Scoundrel'Nastase's sentencing, however, was the ultimate warning shot fired across the bow of Romania's corrupt elite. If someone at the level of Nastase can be thrown in jail, then it can happen to anybody. Indeed, observers believe that his sentencing is the primary motivation for the power struggle currently engaged in by Ponta and Basescu. "They are doing all they can to resist an independent judiciary," says the lawyer Laura Stefan. "They would rather that Romania was in a kind of gray area outside of the European Union."

Taking distance

I can see that some of my recent readers are more interested in painting than politics – and that my blog masthead does clearly state that, unlike most blogs, this one doesn’t “give instant opinions on current events”.
So let me explain why, in the past week, I have been commenting on the ongoing crisis in this country where I have residence and a mountain home.

Simply that I decided in 2007 – after 8 years in Central Asia – that it was time to return to Central/Eastern Europe and to see -

• how its governance system was developing – ie both the administrative system which has been the focus of my work in various countries over the past 20 years  and the wider political system
•  what lessons this held for the various tools international bodies have been trying to develop over this period for other “transition” countries eg in “neighbourhood countries”

I was lucky on my return from Central Asia in that, within a few months, I became Team Leader of a project in Bulgaria focused on training local actors in the implementation of the European Acquis. It proved to be a challenging reinsertion to Europe – not least because of the combination of Bulgarian and Italian cultures (the latter being the main contractor). But I survived – and enjoyed the experience – and Bulgaria. That allowed me to refine the critique I had been working up for some time about EC Technical Assistance.

My next project in 2009 was a not dissimilar one in Romania – but I could sustain the controlling and internecine Romanian bureaucratic culture for only a month before I resigned in disgust and protest. I was happy to have another Bulgarian project for the past 18 months and to divide my time between Sofia and the house in the Carpathian mountains as I pursued more of a cultural agenda.

Frankly the political antics in both countries didn’t interest me – a political animal if ever there was one as I had given 20 years of my life to regional politics in Scotland. But both countries have been pursuing a neo-liberal agenda – whatever their political rhetoric and labels may occasionally say. And, having spent some time with younger political aspirants in the mid 1990s in Romania, it was very clear they were being groomed (by American advisers) simply in the skills of political marketing – not of policy substance. Here is one of the best takes on the situation.  

One technical question I now have is the extent to which the semi-Presidential system of Romania is now contributing to the Romanian problems. They are a highly argumentative race – and such a system is doomed to impasse (let alone highly emotional conflict) in the absence of a powerful leader (such as Iliescu) who can informally control everything – despite the minimal powers the role actually gives. Basescu managed (with a sick psyche) to do this for some years but, in the end, political forces and public patience just ran out. 

What, I wonder, are the implications for the country’s future constitutional settlement? 

Sadly the country lacks the civil society to organise the sort of constitutional process Scotland developed in the 1980s and 1990s.

I’m driving tomorrow to the heat of Bucharest – and then on to Sofia for a week. Bulgaria is now performing much more positively than Romania - reflected in its financial ratings.

Hypocritical Europe?

Today's previous post tried simply to describe the latest developments here in Romania. This second post today reflects conversations with local people and is a comment.
European input to Romania’s ongoing political crisis is a delicate matter. It can all too easily become counter-productive. There are many educated Romanians - and they are highly intelligent, proud and touchy – and can quickly spot apparent inconsistencies if not hypocrisies in comments from Brussels and Berlin. For example -

• Italy and Greece have been hotbeds of corruption, blatant disregard of rule of law and conflicts of interest for decades - and yet Europe took action only recently when its own financial stability was threatened. 
• Romania’s (suspended) President has been overstepping his role for several years, acting unconstitutionally on several occasions and yet Europe said nothing. This week’s judgement of the Constitutional Court apparently agreed that Basescu has been usurping the Prime Minister's role - although most newspaper reports focus only on their agreement that due procedures were observed. 

People with no axe to grind in the present stand-off are asking why Romania is being picked on in this way. A lot of people believe that Europe is so hostile to Romania that it is looking for a reason to kick them out.

Europe therefore needs to tread carefully – and spell out clearly the basis for its concerns. Officially, Romania obtained membership of the European Union in 2007 only because it was judged to have satisfied certain basic conditions – ie of being a functioning democracy and market economy. Any sign that the rule of law is not being respected is a more worrying signal in a new state than an old member state – since such things take time to bed down. In that sense all member states are not equal (Can one take seriously a Constitutional Court which has taken three different positions in 3 years about the rules for a referendum to impeach the President???). Why else is Romania subject to these 6 monthly tests???
A year ago I drew attention to an important distinction a Czech discussant made  -

between democracy understood as institutions and democracy understood as culture. It’s been much easier to create a democratic regime, a democratic system as a set of institutions and procedures and mechanism, than to create democracy as a kind of culture – that is, an environment in which people are actually democrats

My old neighbour will be voting for the impeachment – most old villagers follow the socialist party line. But he does not appreciate constitutional niceties – for example, removing the next in line for the Presidency a few days before the removal of the President may not be unconstitutional in the strict sense - but it is in fact a profound undermining of the essence of constitutionality. If the beef is with Basescu's behaviour, then why not accept the next in line - also a PDL member? Removing him before he could take up the interim position demonstrates the attack is a wider political one - concerned to pack all institutions with yea-sayers. That's a coup d'etat! I'm surprised more commentators have not focussed on that.

Independent analysts such as Tom Gallagher and Alina Mungiu-Pippidi have spelled out in many papers and books over the years just how deviant the political class is here (Tom's latest in his 2009 book Romania and the European Union - how the weak vanquished the strong; Alina's in her chapter in the 2009 book Democracy’s plight in the European Neighbourhood).
The issue is how Europe explains to the Romanian voters that they are still under assessment - without driving them into the arms of the ultra nationalists???
So far, I've had no response from my brief letter to David Martin MEP. And the European Parliament seems to be splitting on political lines - with the Head of the Socialists and also of the Liberals siding with Ponta
The painting is one of Belgian painter's - James Ensor

Good cop, bad cop

We seem to have a good cop, bad cop routine going on here in Romania – with the Romanian PM (Ponta) being sweetness and light to Europe; whilst the guy who was positioned first as Senate leader and then, a week later, appointed by virtue of that position as interim President of the country taking a tougher line.

After talks in Brussels on Thursday with, European commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said that Romania's government "must respect the full independence of the judiciary, restore the powers of the Constitutional Court and ensure that its decisions are observed".

According to his press spokesman he also gave Ponta a list of steps he must take to restore confidence in his government's commitment to EU standards of the rule of law including -

• repealing recent decisions curbing the powers of the constitutional court to check new or amended laws;
• stopping the politically selective use of the official journal, in which legislation has to be published in order to take effect; and
• ensuring the appointment of an Ombudsman who has the support of all political parties

But Romania’s interim president Crin Antonescu (National Liberal party), giving his first press conference yesterday in that role said: "The president of Romania, even the interim president, doesn't take orders... from anyone except parliament and the Romanian people." (someone needs to brief this guy about the implications of being a member of the European Union!!). Antonescu denied reports Barroso had given Ponta a "to-do list".

"The 10 or 11 commandments from Barroso don't exist, because we have no such document and because it would represent an unacceptable and unimaginable overreach of the European Commission's powers, which someone with as much experience and prestige as Mr Barroso would not have done." (He may be correct that no document exists but hasn’t he been following the developments in Hungary - some of whose government decisions have been referred by the European Commission to theEuropean Court of Justice )

There is actually some confusion about what actions Barroso actually set out. According to today's Hotnews.ro these are the requests which Ponta has promised to respond to -

• No head of the National Anti-Corruption Department be designated or no new prosecutor-general named during the interim Presidency of Antonescu
• No pardon be issued during the interim Presidency of Antonescu - a hint at the homes of former PM Adrian Nastase, the current PM's mentor Victor Ponta, who was recently convicted in the case Corruption
• no Minister should hold office who has received a sentence regarding their personal integrity (don't ask me what this is).  Deputies who have final decisions of incompatibility and conflict of interests must resign also (as in the case of MPs Sergiu Andon and Florin Pislaru)
• The People's Lawyer (Ombudsman) must be a person who has the support of all political parties
• The Powers of the Constitutional Court recently revoked must all be returned and the emergency Ordinance annulled
• The rules to validated the referendum to impeach the president must be re-established,
• the Official Gazette no longer must be used for the "selective" official publication of Decisions

Coincidentally the European Commission next week will issue its regular report on the so-called Cooperation and Verification Mechanism, which follows progress in combating corruption and organised crime.

And the president of one of Europe's top bodies on constitutional and human will next week head up a fact-finding mission to Romania. Jean-Claude Mignon, the president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, or PACE, will be in Bucharest on July 18 and 19, the assembly said in a statement Friday. PACE pushes for improved human and democratic rights across its 47 member states and in other nations. Mignon is set to meet with Ponta, Basescu, the president of the constitutional court and other officials.


And it will be next week before Parliament meets to decide how to reconcile their decision to change the referendum rules (simple majority of those voting decides) with the Constitutional Court's (new) requirement that an outcome will require a turnout of 50% plus one (very difficult to achieve with such an outdated electoral register)

A pantomime which requires a boycott

With just over 2 weeks to the referendum on the future of the Romanian President, there is utter confusion on the rules which will decide its outcome. Simple majority of those voting (as parliament decided last week); majority of those entitled to vote (as it has been for a few years); or a requirement that a valid vote requires at least 50% turnout (the condition placed yesterday by the Constitutional Court. The ULR government has promised to hold an emergency session of Parliament to enact the latter condition and end the constitutional crisis which currently exists. And that was enough to call off the American Ambassador’s criticisms. Although Basescu is very unpopular (with only about 15% public support), this might just be enough to save him – since a lot of people are on holiday in late July (although they are able to vote anywhere in Romania).

However, this being Romania, people could interpret the situation in very different ways. As one of my compatriot’s blogposts puts it 

Some of today's papers say Victor Ponta will not respect the ruling, others are unclear. All is confusion. In theory we could have Mr. Băsescu losing the referendum with a turnout of below 50%, he and the Constitutional Court claiming he is president and the temporary incumbent claiming he is acting president - a situation like the Anti-Popes who waged war on one another in the Middle Ages or the three false Dimitris who bedevilled Polish history or the various people who claimed to be Louis XVII. 

Basescu is actually hinting at a boycott - "people should not be part of this dishonesty" - but the above scenario would bring the country to its knees. In a previous post I myself suggested that voters should spoil their papers - this perhaps remains the best option. People do need to vote to ensure this nonsense is ended - and, if a significant number of the votes were disqualified because of a "plague on the political class" scrawl, this would at least send a message that voter patience is wearing thin. Bear in mind that November sees parliamentary elections - and there is a far-right party waiting in the wings which could make all this look like a minor tiff!
At least it seems that the European Parliament people are taking a hard line with the Romanian government – the chairman of the European Parliament has spoken out;  and the leader of the conservative group (EPP) actually refused to meet with Ponta on the latter's visit to Brussels. And others are ostracising Ponta - as this highly symbolic picture shows